River Flood Warning 47, NWS Seattle, WA

845 
WGUS46 KSEW 221117
FLWSEW
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Seattle WA
317 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers in Washington...

  North Fork Stillaguamish River near Arlington affecting Snohomish 
  County.

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Washington...

  South Fork Stillaguamish River near Granite Falls affecting 
  Snohomish County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 9

Heavy rain over the west slopes of the Cascades will result in minor
to locally moderate flooding on the Stillaguamish River, including
the main stem as well as the South Fork and North Fork. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas. This is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.

&&

WAC061-222017-
/O.NEW.KSEW.FL.W.0052.171122T1152Z-171122T2108Z/
/ARGW1.1.ER.171122T1152Z.171122T1200Z.171122T1208Z.NO/
317 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The North Fork Stillaguamish River near Arlington
* until this afternoon.
* At  3:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 4 AM 
  Wednesday and crest near 13.0 feet around 4 AM Wednesday. The river
  will fall below flood stage early this morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, the North Fork Stillaguamish River will cause
  flooding of Oso Loop Road and cause minor riverbank erosion.  A 
  stage of 13 feet corresponds to Phase 2 in the Snohomish County 
  Flood Warning System.

&&

LAT...LON 4822 12164 4822 12191 4816 12211 4824 12214 4833 12193
      4833 12164       

$$

WAC061-222017-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-171123T0139Z/
/GFLW1.2.ER.171122T0723Z.171122T1200Z.171122T1639Z.NO/
317 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The South Fork Stillaguamish River near Granite Falls
* Until this afternoon.
* At  2:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise and crest near 16.6 feet
  around 4 AM Wednesday. The river will fall below flood stage this 
  morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, the South Fork Stillaguamish River will cause
  flooding in Granite Falls downstream to the Blue Spruce area and 
  Jordan Road.  A stage of 16 feet corresponds to Phase 3 in the 
  Snohomish County Flood Warning System.

&&

LAT...LON 4806 12191 4808 12204 4816 12211 4824 12214 4816 12202
      4815 12192       

$$

829 
WGUS86 KSEW 221223
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Satsop River near Satsop affecting Grays Harbor County.
  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.
  Cowlitz River at Randle affecting Lewis County.
  Snoqualmie River near the Falls affecting King County.
  Snoqualmie River near Carnation affecting King County.
  Skykomish River near Gold Bar affecting Snohomish County.
  North Fork Stillaguamish River near Arlington affecting Snohomish 
  County.
  South Fork Stillaguamish River near Granite Falls affecting 
  Snohomish County.
  Stillaguamish River at Arlington affecting Snohomish County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 12

Heavy rain that fell over the Olympics and Cascades has driven 
several rivers above flood stage. In most cases the flooding is
minor but moderate flooding is occurring on reaches of the 
Stillaguamish River. Flood warnings could be issued for other 
rivers today, and additional rainfall tonight and Thursday could
make the flooding more widespread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas. This is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.

&&

WAC045-222123-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0044.000000T0000Z-171124T2129Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.171121T2210Z.171122T1200Z.171124T1229Z.NR/
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* From 2 PM Tuesday until Friday afternoon.
* At  4:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 17.9 feet at 4 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands...with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

WAC027-222123-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-171122T2341Z/
/SATW1.1.ER.171122T0906Z.171122T1115Z.171122T1441Z.NO/
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Satsop River near Satsop
* Until this afternoon.
* At  3:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 34.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river crested at 34.7 feet at 3 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage this morning.
* Impact...At 34.0 feet, the Satsop River will flood low pasture lands
  and some roads along the river.

&&

LAT...LON 4696 12345 4696 12354 4702 12354 4708 12354 4708 12345
      4702 12345       

$$

WAC061-222123-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-171122T2132Z/
/ARGW1.1.ER.171122T1145Z.171122T1200Z.171122T1232Z.NO/
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The North Fork Stillaguamish River near Arlington
* Until this afternoon.
* At  4:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river crested at 13.2 feet at 4 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage early this morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, the North Fork Stillaguamish River will cause
  flooding of Oso Loop Road and cause minor riverbank erosion.  A 
  stage of 13 feet corresponds to Phase 2 in the Snohomish County 
  Flood Warning System.

&&

LAT...LON 4822 12164 4822 12191 4816 12211 4824 12214 4833 12193
      4833 12164       

$$

WAC061-222123-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-171123T0144Z/
/GFLW1.2.ER.171122T0723Z.171122T1200Z.171122T1644Z.NO/
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until this afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Stillaguamish River near Granite Falls
* Until this afternoon.
* At  4:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river crested at 16.8 feet at 4 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage this morning.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, the South Fork Stillaguamish River will cause
  flooding in Granite Falls downstream to the Blue Spruce area and 
  Jordan Road.  A stage of 16 feet corresponds to Phase 3 in the 
  Snohomish County Flood Warning System.

&&

LAT...LON 4806 12191 4808 12204 4816 12211 4824 12214 4816 12202
      4815 12192       

$$

WAC061-222122-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-171123T0714Z/
/ARLW1.1.ER.171122T0929Z.171122T1154Z.171122T1914Z.NO/
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stillaguamish River at Arlington
* Until this evening.
* At  3:54 AM Wednesday the stage was 15.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 15.9 feet at 4 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage late this morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, the Stillaguamish River will locally spill 
  over its banks.  Minor flooding around Silvana will occur...
  including over Pioneer Highway.  A stage of 14 feet on the 
  Stillaguamish River corresponds roughly to Phase 2 in the Snohomish
  County Flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4816 12211 4817 12223 4816 12237 4826 12240 4823 12224
      4824 12214       

$$

WAC061-222122-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-171124T0944Z/
/GLBW1.2.ER.171122T0744Z.171122T1045Z.171123T2144Z.NO/
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late Thursday night...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skykomish River near Gold Bar
* From 12 AM Wednesday until late Thursday night.
* At  3:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 17.2 feet at 3 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage Thursday early 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, the Skykomish River will cause minor flooding
  of low pasture lands and some roads along the river...including Ben
  Howard road...Index-Galena Rd and Tualco Loop Rd.  A stage of 16 
  feet on the Skykomish River corresponds to a Phase 3 in the 
  Snohomish County flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4774 12150 4780 12173 4780 12196 4793 12197 4794 12169
      4787 12147       

$$

WAC033-222122-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0049.171122T1217Z-171123T0750Z/
/SQUW1.1.ER.171122T0955Z.171122T1800Z.171122T2250Z.NO/
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snoqualmie River near the Falls
* Until this evening.
* At  3:45 AM Wednesday the flow was 22187 cfs.
* Flood flow is 20000 cfs.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise and crest near 25567 cfs
  around 10 AM Wednesday. The river will fall below flood flow early 
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 20000 cfs, the Snoqualmie River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands and roads along the river from the town 
  of Snoqualmie downstream through Fall City. Roads that may become 
  flooded include Fall City-Carnation...Tolt Hill...and Novelty Flats
  Roads. This river level on the Snoqualmie corresponds roughly to a 
  phase 3 flood in the King County flood system.

&&

LAT...LON 4742 12175 4752 12186 4756 12196 4761 12188 4758 12178
      4756 12170       

$$

WAC033-222122-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0050.171122T1721Z-171123T1624Z/
/CRNW1.1.ER.171122T1721Z.171123T0000Z.171123T0424Z.NO/
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Snoqualmie River near Carnation
* From 9 AM Wednesday until Thursday morning.
* At  3:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 52.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 54.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 9 AM 
  Wednesday and crest near 55.8 feet around 4 PM Wednesday. The river
  will fall below flood stage tonight.
* Impact...At 54.0 feet, the Snoqualmie River will flood much of the 
  farm land and several roads from Fall City downstream through 
  Carnation and Duvall.

&&

LAT...LON 4756 12196 4770 12204 4784 12202 4783 12194 4771 12193
      4761 12188       

$$

WAC041-222122-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0053.171122T1614Z-171125T0005Z/
/RAWW1.1.ER.171122T1614Z.171124T0600Z.171124T1505Z.NO/
423 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cowlitz River at Randle
* From 8 AM Wednesday until Friday afternoon.
* At  4:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 8 AM 
  Wednesday and crest near 19.6 feet around 10 PM Thursday. The river
  will fall below flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, the Cowlitz River will cause minor flooding 
  from the vicinity of Randle downstream through Riffe Lake...
  covering nearby farm lands and several roads.

&&

LAT...LON 4645 12180 4645 12194 4640 12219 4654 12220 4659 12198
      4661 12183       

$$

224 
WGUS86 KSEW 222023
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1223 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skagit River near Concrete affecting Skagit County.
  Skagit River near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.
  North Fork Stillaguamish River near Arlington affecting Snohomish 
  County.
  Stillaguamish River at Arlington affecting Snohomish County.
  South Fork Stillaguamish River near Granite Falls affecting 
  Snohomish County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 17

                North West Region

Scattered showers will continue today, then rain returns tonight
into Thanksgiving Day, but less than what we have seen recently. The
snow level will remain above 7500 feet.

&&

WAC057-230523-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-171125T0252Z/
/CONW1.2.ER.171122T1439Z.171123T0000Z.171124T1452Z.NO/
1223 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skagit River near Concrete
* Until Friday evening.
* At 12:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 30.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise and crest near 31.6 feet
  around 4 PM Wednesday. The river will fall tonight than rise
  again to near 31.3 feet Thursday. The river will fall below flood
  stage Friday morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood low areas and 
  sections of roads along the river from Rockport downstream to Sedro
  Woolley. This level for this location on the Skagit corresponds to 
  a Phase 1 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227 4856 12185
      4850 12160       

$$

WAC057-230522-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0055.171122T2354Z-171125T1823Z/
/MVEW1.2.ER.171122T2354Z.171124T1800Z.171125T0623Z.NO/
1223 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skagit River near Mt. Vernon
* From 4 PM Wednesday until Saturday morning.
* At 11:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 25.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 4 PM 
  Wednesday and crest near 31.1 feet around 10 AM Friday. The river
  will fall Thursday then rise again to near 31.0 feet Friday. The
  river will fall below flood stage Friday night.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood from Sedro 
  Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth. Flood waters 
  will inundate some low-lying roads...farmlands and residential 
  areas. This level for this location on the Skagit corresponds to a 
  phase 1 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250 4845 12240
      4853 12227       

$$

WAC061-230522-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-171123T0619Z/
/ARGW1.2.ER.171122T1145Z.171122T1700Z.171122T2119Z.NO/
1223 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The North Fork Stillaguamish River near Arlington
* Until this evening.
* At 11:45 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river crested at 14.5 feet at 9 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage early this afternoon.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, the North Fork Stillaguamish River will cause
  flooding in the Cicero and Swede Heaven areas...Oso Loop Road...and
  SR 530.  Flood waters will also cause riverbank erosion. A stage of
  14 feet corresponds to Phase 3 in the Snohomish County Flood 
  Warning System.

&&

LAT...LON 4822 12164 4822 12191 4816 12211 4824 12214 4833 12193
      4833 12164       

$$

WAC061-230144-
/O.CON.KSEW.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-171123T0144Z/
/GFLW1.2.ER.171122T0723Z.171122T1200Z.171122T1821Z.NO/
1223 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The South Fork Stillaguamish River near Granite Falls
* Until this afternoon.
* At 11:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage late this morning.
* No additional flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 16.82 feet at 4 AM this morning
  then fell below flood stage at 10:21 AM today and will continue to
  fall. Flooding will continue in some areas until the flood wave
  has completely passed downstream.

&&

LAT...LON 4806 12191 4808 12204 4816 12211 4824 12214 4816 12202
      4815 12192       

$$

WAC061-230522-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-171123T1353Z/
/ARLW1.3.ER.171122T0929Z.171122T1654Z.171123T0153Z.NO/
1223 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until late tonight...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stillaguamish River at Arlington
* Until late tonight.
* At 11:54 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 19.0 feet at 9 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, the Stillaguamish River will flood many roads
  including Hwy 530...Pioneer Highway...Marine Drive and numerous 
  locations along Norman Rd. Swift waters will flood residential 
  areas near Silvana...Norman and Florence.  A stage of 18 feet on 
  the Stillaguamish River corresponds roughly to Phase 3 in the 
  Snohomish County Flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4816 12211 4817 12223 4816 12237 4826 12240 4823 12224
      4824 12214       

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.

&&

$$

030 
WGUS86 KSEW 230047
FLSSEW
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
447 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...The Flood Warning has ended for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  North Fork Stillaguamish River near Arlington affecting Snohomish 
  County.
  South Fork Stillaguamish River near Granite Falls affecting 
  Snohomish County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Washington...

  Skokomish River near Potlatch affecting Mason County.
  Satsop River near Satsop affecting Grays Harbor County.
  Skagit River near Concrete affecting Skagit County.
  Skagit River near Mt. Vernon affecting Skagit County.
  Stillaguamish River at Arlington affecting Snohomish County.

.Flood Bulletin No. 19

                Olympics and North West Region

Scattered showers will continue today, then rain returns tonight
into Thanksgiving Day, but less than what we have seen recently. The
snow level will remain above 7500 feet. This next round of rain will
temporarily push rivers up again or at least slow any recessions. 

&&

WAC045-230947-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0044.000000T0000Z-171125T0648Z/
/SRPW1.2.ER.171121T2210Z.171122T1445Z.171124T2148Z.NR/
447 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skokomish River near Potlatch
* Until Friday evening.
* At  4:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 17.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 17.9 feet at 7 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall this evening. Then the river will rise
  overnight Thursday to about 17.7 feet before resuming its fall to
  below flood stage Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet, the Skokomish River will cause widespread 
  flooding of pasture lands...with water flowing quickly over West 
  Bourgault Road and Skokomish Valley Road.

&&

LAT...LON 4744 12326 4733 12321 4736 12317 4733 12308 4721 12321
      4738 12340       

$$

WAC027-230947-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-171124T1652Z/
/SATW1.2.ER.171122T0906Z.171122T1845Z.171124T0752Z.NO/
447 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Satsop River near Satsop
* Until Friday morning.
* At  4:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 35.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 34.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river crested at 36.5 feet at 11 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage Thursday night. There
  will be a slowing of the recession or a brief upturn early
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 34.0 feet, the Satsop River will flood low pasture
lands
  and some roads along the river.

&&

LAT...LON 4696 12345 4696 12354 4702 12354 4708 12354 4708 12345
      4702 12345       

$$

WAC057-230947-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-171125T0153Z/
/CONW1.2.ER.171122T1439Z.171124T0000Z.171124T1353Z.NO/
447 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skagit River near Concrete
* Until Friday afternoon.
* At  4:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 31.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is nearing crest now at 31.3 feet. The river
  will fall overnight then turn around and will continue to rise and
  crest near 31.3 feet around 4 PM Thursday. The river will fall
  below flood stage Friday morning.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood low areas and 
  sections of roads along the river from Rockport downstream to Sedro
  Woolley. This level for this location on the Skagit corresponds to 
  a Phase 1 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

&&

LAT...LON 4845 12163 4848 12185 4846 12227 4853 12227 4856 12185
      4850 12160       

$$

WAC057-230947-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-171125T1708Z/
/MVEW1.2.ER.171123T0224Z.171124T1800Z.171125T0508Z.NO/
447 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Skagit River near Mt. Vernon
* From 6 PM Wednesday until Saturday morning.
* At  4:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 27.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 28.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage around 6 PM 
  Wednesday and crest near 31.0 feet around 10 AM Thursday. The
  river fall overnight then turn around and will continue to rise and
  crest near 31.1 feet around 10 AM Friday. The river will fall below
  flood stage Friday night.
* Impact...At 30.0 feet, the Skagit River will flood from Sedro 
  Woolley downstream through Mount Vernon to the mouth. Flood waters 
  will inundate some low-lying roads...farmlands and residential 
  areas. This level for this location on the Skagit corresponds to a 
  phase 1 flood in the Skagit County flood system.

&&

LAT...LON 4846 12227 4840 12230 4830 12235 4837 12250 4845 12240
      4853 12227       

$$

WAC061-230117-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-171123T0619Z/
/ARGW1.2.ER.171122T1145Z.171122T1700Z.171122T2141Z.NO/
447 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

The Flood Warning has ended for
  The North Fork Stillaguamish River near Arlington
* At  4:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage early this afternoon.
* Forecast...The river fell below flood stage  1:41 PM Wednesday 
  early this afternoon and will continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 4822 12164 4822 12191 4816 12211 4824 12214 4833 12193
      4833 12164       

$$

WAC061-230117-
/O.CAN.KSEW.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-171123T0144Z/
/GFLW1.2.ER.171122T0723Z.171122T1200Z.171122T1821Z.NO/
447 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

The Flood Warning has ended for
  The South Fork Stillaguamish River near Granite Falls
* At  4:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage late this morning.
* Forecast...The river fell below flood stage 10:21 AM Wednesday late
  this morning and will continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 4806 12191 4808 12204 4816 12211 4824 12214 4816 12202
      4815 12192       

$$

WAC061-230946-
/O.EXT.KSEW.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-171123T1422Z/
/ARLW1.3.ER.171122T0929Z.171122T1654Z.171123T0222Z.NO/
447 PM PST Wed Nov 22 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stillaguamish River at Arlington
* Until Thursday morning.
* At  4:24 PM Wednesday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river crested at 19.0 feet at 9 AM Wednesday and 
  will continue to fall to below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, the Stillaguamish River will locally spill 
  over its banks.  Minor flooding around Silvana will occur...
  including over Pioneer Highway.  A stage of 14 feet on the 
  Stillaguamish River corresponds roughly to Phase 2 in the Snohomish
  County Flood program.

&&

LAT...LON 4816 12211 4817 12223 4816 12237 4826 12240 4823 12224
      4824 12214       

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars...vans...or trucks through flooded areas...this is 
the cause of most flood related deaths in Washington. Be alert for 
rapid changes and monitor developments by listening to NOAA Weather 
radio or other local media.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
900 PM PST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A moist frontal system will bring rain to Western
Washington tonight. The heaviest rainfall will occur in the
mountains and should begin to gradually decrease from northwest
after midnight. The snow level will be near 8000 feet. After a lull
in the rain on Wednesday, another wet frontal system will move
through the region Wednesday night through Thanksgiving morning.
After another break on Friday, another system will reach the area
Saturday afternoon and night. This active weather pattern will
continue into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Water Vapor and IR imagery shows a long fetch of warm
moist air extending from just east of the Hawaiian Islands northeast
into the Pacific Northwest. This looks like a classic atmospheric
river pattern. The freezing level at Forks is over 10K feet so the
air mass is capable of holding a lot of moisture. Rain amounts the
past 24 hours range from roughly 3-5 inches in the Olympics to 2-4
inches in the Cascades. With the heaviest amounts over the Olympic
Peninsula it not surprising that a couple rivers are flooding.
Amounts are somewhat lighter in the Cascades, but still respectable.
See the hydrology section below and refer to the latest flood
bulletins for current and detailed river information.

Models generally show a gradually decrease in rainfall rates from
the northwest after midnight. The heavier rain has arrived in
batches and not the typically focused stream of heavy rain that
usually is observed. Pretty much all models show a lull in rain
across the area on Wednesday. It will still be a bit wet but rain
amounts will not be nearly as heavy.

The next wave of rain arrives Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of
a front approaching from the west-northwest. Models show this next
system to be more progressive in nature, so rain amounts should not
be quite as heavy. However, there will still be some flood risk on
area rivers and forecasts should be monitored through the week.
Another lull or break on some of the rain is expected on Friday.
Mercer

.LONG TERM...From previous discussion...The GFS and ECMWF are
actually in fair agreement with the large scale pattern through this
weekend. Another large upper level trough will deepen offshore along
roughly 140W Friday night and Saturday, which will re-invigorate the
SW flow over the PacNW. This will allow another shortwave trough
embedded in the SW flow to move NE across W WA Saturday afternoon
and evening. The weakening main upper level trough should follow on
Sunday. The models show a warm front arriving on Monday, but day 6
is a little far out for much confidence in this active pattern. Kam

&&

.AVIATION...Moist southwest flow aloft will continue through
Wednesday night. A warm front near the Canadian border will move
north of the area this evening, but rain will continue at times in
the moist southwest flow. The air mass will be stable. At the
surface, easterly gradients are becoming more southeasterly behind
the warm front. While low level wind shear has come to an end
behind the warm front, expect strong winds 19040-55 kt to continue
at times between 030 and 050 through Wednesday night.

There has been some improvement in conditions behind the warm
front, but the high levels of moisture are producing rain at times
and low ceilings in places. Overall, expect MVFR conditions with
pockets of IFR conditions to dominate later tonight through
Wednesday morning. Strong flow aloft interacting with the terrain
will give pockets of clearing at times to the lee of the Olympics,
especially midday Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Albrecht

KSEA...CIGS have improved to just over BKN030 this evening, but
expect them to lower to 015 08Z-20Z with some diurnal cooling and
a continued influx of tropically moist air from the southwest.
Expect periods of rain to reduce visibilities to 5SM at times
through tonight. Winds will be south 8-11kt through Wednesday
morning and S 12G20 kt late Wed afternoon through evening. Winds
aloft will generally be strong at 19035-55 kt between 2500 and
5000 ft MSL through Wednesday night. Albrecht

&&

.MARINE...A warm front near the Canadian border will lift north of
the waters this evening. Another frontal system approaching the
coastal waters from the west will give rather strong south to
southwest flow to the waters tonight through Wednesday night
behind the warm front. Small craft advisories are in effect for
the coastal waters, and Admiralty Inlet overnight. The Small craft
advisories will continue over the coastal waters through
Wednesday.

Winds are expected to develop ahead of the offshore front
Wednesday night as a wave of low pressure moves through the
offshore waters. Gale force winds are possible over the coastal
waters and at the entrances to the strait as the wave moves by, so
a Gale Watch continues for these areas for Wednesday night.

Windy southerly flow will continue on Thursday as a trough
brushes the area. Gales are likely on the coast and over the north
inland waters with this system. Another system will arrive around
Saturday, with gales again possible. Albrecht

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The axis of heaviest rain associated with today's
warm front and its plume of subtropical moisture is moving east of
the area this evening, and precipitation is generally decreasing
across Western Washington. Already, though, 2 to almost 5 inches
inches of rain has fallen over the Olympic Mountains, with 1 to 4
inches at Mount Rainier and around 1 to 3 inches further north over
the Cascades. The snow level is around 9000 feet.

There are a number of rivers that will crest close to flood stage
tonight, and a flood watch remains in effect for most of the
forecast area (all but Island, San Juan, Kitsap, and Mason
Counties). With precipitation decreasing, the upper reaches of some
rivers are starting to crest - especially the Olympic Peninsula
rivers - and those crests will be moving downstream tonight.

The rivers that face the most imminent threat of reaching flood
stage tonight include the Nooksack, Stillaguamish, Skykomish, and
Snoqualmie; they are still too close to call at this point, but
warnings could be issued this evening. If flooding does occur on
these rivers, it will be minor.

On the Olympic Peninsula, the Skokomish River is flooding and the
Bogachiel is just reaching flood stage. Flood warnings are in effect
for both rivers.

With regard to rivers flowing off of Mount Rainier, the Northwest
River Forecast Center model shows reaches of the Nisqually and the
Cowlitz Rivers reaching flood stage, but the threat there does look
as imminent.

In addition, the threat of landslides will increase across the
lowlands of Western Washington. The USGS landslide guidance shows
one or two stations near or just above the threshold of concern, and
of course the additional rain through Thursday will drive that
higher. McDonnal

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for all of Western
     Washington from Grays Harbor and Lewis counties northward
     (Except for Mason, Kitsap, San Juan, Island counties).

PZ...Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 4 PM PST Wednesday for
     Grays Harbor Bar.

     Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night
     for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out
     10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To
     Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
     Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for East
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland
     Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Admiralty
     Inlet-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/gafd/latest_webafd.html