Alert archive / Virginia / Wind Chill Advisories in 2017
Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this wind chill advisory at Mar 14, 2017, 3:20 PM EDT for Greenbrier County, Monroe County, West Virginia; 21 counties in Virginia; Alleghany County, North Carolina. It took effect at Mar 14, 2017, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 12 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 14, 2017, 3:20 PM EDT (19:20 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 14, 2017, 8:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Mar 15, 2017, 8:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
All 24 counties
Alleghany County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Monroe County, WV
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 617 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -268 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -65 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
572 WWUS41 KRNK 141920 WSWRNK URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 320 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...Wintry conditions will persist at the higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge... .Northwest winds will be increasing and become quite gusty this afternoon as a strong winter storm moves up the mid Atlantic coast. This will usher in very cold air and allow upslope snow showers to continue west of the Blue Ridge, especially at the higher elevations, into Wednesday. Wind chill values will also become dangerously low in the mountains by early Wednesday morning. WVZ508-150400- /O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 320 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Locations...Western Greenbrier County. * Hazard types...Snow...strong gusty winds...and low wind chill values * Accumulations...Additional snow accumulation of locally 4 to 6 inches. * Timing...Through Wednesday morning. * Impacts...Occasional snow showers with areas of blowing snow will continue to create slick spots on roads and elevated surfaces through Wednesday morning. Power outages are also possible due to the heavy wet snow and strong gusty winds developing later today into Wednesday. * Winds...Increasing from the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph. * Temperatures...Dropping through the 20s into the single digits by early Wednesday morning. * Wind Chills...10 to 20 below zero by early Wednesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. The public is encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service via email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov... through Facebook or Twitter...or by calling 1...8 6 6...2 1 5... 4 3 2 4. Pictures are greatly appreciated. && $$ NCZ002-VAZ009>014-016>020-022>024-WVZ044-507-150400- /O.NEW.KRNK.WC.Y.0003.170315T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Alleghany NC-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll- Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier- Including the cities of Sparta, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Union, Lewisburg, and White Sulphur Springs 320 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Wind Chill Advisory, which is in effect from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday. * Locations...Locations in Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge, as well as portions of southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina. * Hazard Types...Dangerously low wind chill values and strong gusty winds. * Wind Chill Readings...Falling to around 5 below zero by daybreak Wednesday. * Timing...Tonight into Wednesday morning. * Impacts...Direct exposure of skin to the cold and wind will quickly lead to frostbite. Strong wind gusts may bring down small tree limbs and cause sporadic power outages. * Winds...15 to 25 MPH with Gusts of 45 to 50 MPH, especially at the higher elevations. * Temperatures...5F to 15F above zero. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Chill Advisory is issued when strong winds will combine with cold temperatures for several hours to create dangerously cold conditions for exposed skin. Those planning to venture outdoors should use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed skin is covered. && $$ NCZ001-018-VAZ007-015-WVZ042-043-150400- /O.CON.KRNK.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Grayson-Mercer-Summers- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Tazewell, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Bluefield, Hinton, and Hix 320 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Locations...The North Carolina High Country including Grayson County in Virginia and Mercer and Summers County in West Virginia. * Hazard types...Snow...strong gusty winds...and low wind chill values * Accumulations...Additional snow accumulation of locally 1 to 3 inches. * Timing...Through Wednesday morning. * Impacts...Occasional snow showers with areas of blowing snow will continue to create slick spots on roads and elevated surfaces through Wednesday morning. Power outages are also possible due to the heavy wet snow and strong gusty winds developing later today into Wednesday. * Winds...Increasing from the northwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph. * Temperatures...Falling into the teens by early Wednesday morning. * Wind Chills...5 to 10 below zero by early Wednesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving. The public is encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service via email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov... through Facebook or Twitter...or by calling 1...8 6 6...2 1 5... 4 3 2 4. Pictures are greatly appreciated. && $$ MBS
3 follow-up statements
213 WWUS41 KRNK 150330 WSWRNK URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1130 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...Wintry conditions will persist at the higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge... .Northwest winds will be increasing and stay gusty through the overnight. With colder air moving in, anticipate upslope snow showers west of the Blue Ridge, especially at the higher elevations, into Wednesday. Wind chill values will also become dangerously low in the mountains by early Wednesday morning. WVZ508-151130- /O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 1130 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Locations...Western Greenbrier County. * Hazard types...Snow...strong gusty winds...and low wind chill values * Accumulations...Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 4 inches. * Timing...Through Wednesday morning. * Impacts...Occasional snow showers with areas of blowing snow will continue to create slick spots on roads and elevated surfaces through Wednesday morning. Power outages are also possible due to the heavy wet snow and strong gusty winds developing later today into Wednesday. * Winds...Increasing from the northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph. * Temperatures...Dropping through the 20s into the single digits by early Wednesday morning. * Wind Chills...10 to 20 below zero by early Wednesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. The public is encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service via email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov... through Facebook or Twitter...or by calling 1...8 6 6...2 1 5... 4 3 2 4. Pictures are greatly appreciated. && $$ NCZ001-018-VAZ007-015-WVZ042-043-151130- /O.CON.KRNK.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Grayson-Mercer-Summers- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Tazewell, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Bluefield, Hinton, and Hix 1130 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Locations...The North Carolina High Country including Grayson County in Virginia and Mercer and Summers County in West Virginia. * Hazard types...Snow...strong gusty winds...and low wind chill values * Accumulations...Additional snow accumulation of up to 2 inches. * Timing...Through Wednesday morning. * Impacts...Occasional snow showers with areas of blowing snow will continue to create slick spots on roads and elevated surfaces through Wednesday morning. Power outages are also possible due to the heavy wet snow and strong gusty winds developing later today into Wednesday. * Winds...Increasing from the northwest at 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph. * Temperatures...Falling into the teens by early Wednesday morning. * Wind Chills...5 to 10 below zero by early Wednesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving. The public is encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service via email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov... through Facebook or Twitter...or by calling 1...8 6 6...2 1 5... 4 3 2 4. Pictures are greatly appreciated. && $$ NCZ002-VAZ009>014-016>020-022>024-WVZ044-507-151130- /O.CON.KRNK.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Alleghany NC-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll- Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier- Including the cities of Sparta, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Union, Lewisburg, and White Sulphur Springs 1130 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * Locations...Locations in Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge, as well as portions of southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina. * Hazard Types...Dangerously low wind chill values and strong gusty winds. * Wind Chill Readings...Falling to around 5 below zero by daybreak Wednesday. * Timing...Tonight into Wednesday morning. * Impacts...Direct exposure of skin to the cold and wind will quickly lead to frostbite. Strong wind gusts may bring down small tree limbs and cause sporadic power outages. * Winds...15 to 25 MPH with Gusts of 45 to 50 MPH, especially at the higher elevations. * Temperatures...5F to 15F above zero. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Chill Advisory is issued when strong winds will combine with cold temperatures for several hours to create dangerously cold conditions for exposed skin. Those planning to venture outdoors should use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed skin is covered. && $$
543 WWUS41 KRNK 150815 WSWRNK URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 415 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 ...Wintry conditions to persist into the early morning hours at the higher elevations west of the Blue Ridge... .A deep low pressure area along the New England coast will keep gusty northwest winds in place across the region. These winds will enhance upslope snow showers across the Alleghanys. In addition, these winds will continue to bring very cold air into the region. Wind chills through the early morning hours will be dangerously low across the mountains. WVZ508-151200- /O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Western Greenbrier- Including the cities of Quinwood, Duo, and Rainelle 415 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * Locations...Western Greenbrier County. * Hazard types...Snow...strong gusty winds...and low wind chill values * Accumulations...Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. * Timing...Through 8 AM this morning. * Impacts...Occasional snow showers with areas of blowing snow will continue to create slick spots on roads and elevated surfaces through the early morning. Visibilities will be reduced in areas of heavier snow. * Winds...Northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph...increasing after daybreak to 15 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 40 mph. * Temperatures...10 to 15 degrees this morning...rising into the lower 20s by afternoon. * Wind Chills...5 to 15 below zero through the early morning hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. The public is encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service via email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov... through Facebook or Twitter...or by calling 1...8 6 6...2 1 5... 4 3 2 4. Pictures are greatly appreciated. && $$ NCZ001-018-VAZ007-015-WVZ042-043-151200- /O.CON.KRNK.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Grayson-Mercer-Summers- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Tazewell, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Bluefield, Hinton, and Hix 415 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * Locations...The North Carolina High Country including Grayson County in Virginia and Mercer and Summers County in West Virginia. * Hazard types...Snow...strong gusty winds...and low wind chill values. * Accumulations...Additional snow accumulation of up to 1 inch. Total snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches. * Timing...Through 8 AM this morning. * Impacts...Occasional snow showers with areas of blowing snow will continue to create slick spots on roads and elevated surfaces through the early morning. * Winds...Northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts 35 to 40 mph...increasing after daybreak to 20 to 30 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph. * Temperatures...10 to 15 degrees through the early morning hours...rising to the lower 20s by afternoon. * Wind Chills...5 to 10 below zero through the early morning hours. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving. The public is encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service via email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov... through Facebook or Twitter...or by calling 1...8 6 6...2 1 5... 4 3 2 4. Pictures are greatly appreciated. && $$ NCZ002-VAZ009>014-016>020-022>024-WVZ044-507-151200- /O.CON.KRNK.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Alleghany NC-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll- Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier- Including the cities of Sparta, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Union, Lewisburg, and White Sulphur Springs 415 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING... * Locations...Locations in Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge, as well as portions of southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina. * Hazard Types...Dangerously low wind chill values and strong gusty winds. * Wind Chill Readings...Around 5 below zero. * Timing...Through the early morning hours. * Impacts...Direct exposure of skin to the cold and wind will quickly lead to frostbite. * Winds...10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 35 to 40 MPH, especially at the higher elevations...increasing after daybreak to 15 to 25 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph. * Temperatures...In the teens. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Chill Advisory is issued when strong winds will combine with cold temperatures for several hours to create dangerously cold conditions for exposed skin. Those planning to venture outdoors should use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed skin is covered. && $$ RAB
774 WWUS41 KRNK 151213 WSWRNK URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 813 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 ...Snow showers ending...but very cold and windy conditions continue into the morning hours... .A deep low pressure area moving very slowly north along the New England coast will keep gusty northwest winds in place across the region today. With temperatures this morning in the teens...these winds will continue to drive wind chills this morning to dangerously low levels across the mountains. Regarding winds...a wind advisory is in effect for much of the region until 7 pm EDT. WVZ508-151315- /O.EXP.KRNK.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Western Greenbrier- 813 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED... The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has cancelled the Winter Storm Warning. Snow shower activity is diminishing across the region. Additional snow accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Several inches of snow has fallen across this region during the last 24 to 36 hours, so untreated roads across the area are likely snow covered and hazardous. Temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing until Friday across this area. $$ NCZ002-VAZ009>014-016>020-022>024-WVZ044-507-151400- /O.EXP.KRNK.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KRNK.WC.Y.0004.170315T1213Z-170315T1400Z/ Alleghany NC-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll- Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier- Including the cities of Sparta, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Union, Lewisburg, and White Sulphur Springs 813 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Wind Chill Advisory, which is in effect until 10 AM EDT this morning. * Locations...Locations in Virginia along and west of the Blue Ridge, as well as portions of southeast West Virginia and northwest North Carolina. * Hazard Types...Dangerously low wind chill values and strong gusty winds. * Wind Chill Readings...Around 5 below zero. * Timing...Through the early morning hours. * Impacts...Direct exposure of skin to the cold and wind will quickly lead to frostbite. * Winds...10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 35 to 40 MPH, especially at the higher elevations...increasing after daybreak to 15 to 25 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph. * Temperatures...In the teens. * Wind Chill... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Wind Chill Advisory is issued when strong winds will combine with cold temperatures for several hours to create dangerously cold conditions for exposed skin. Those planning to venture outdoors should use common sense and dress warmly...making sure that all exposed skin is covered. && $$ NCZ001-018-VAZ007-015-WVZ042-043-151315- /O.EXP.KRNK.WW.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-170315T1200Z/ Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Grayson-Mercer-Summers- 813 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory. Snow shower activity is diminishing across the region. Additional snow accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Snowfall across this region has ranged generally from 1 to 4 inches during the last 24 to 36 hours, so untreated roads across the region are likely snow covered and hazardous. Temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing until at least Thursday afternoon across this area. $$ RAB
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind chill advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind chill advisory went out at Mar 14, 3:08 PM EDT, 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 3:08 PM EDT, 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
308 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture should increase ahead of a developing coastal low
pressure system this evening. This complex winter storm will
impact much of the region through tonight into Tuesday. Colder
air with gusty northwest winds should follow later this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 500 AM EDT Tuesday...
Latest radar loops show back edge of synoptic precipitation has
made it east of the Blue Ridge, and linear extrapolation has it
exiting the area by Noon. However, upslope snow showers with
strong gusty winds will persist west of the Ridge especially at
the higher elevations for the rest of the day.
Temps in the east will get a slight bump through early this
afternoon as clouds give way to some sun, but expect temps
steady to falling in the west. Will revisit current headlines in
a bit to see what can be cancelled and what will be retained.
Previous discussion...
A deep coastal system was developing early this morning along
the NC/VA coast as planned. This will further deepen into a
major low pressure area and associated nor-easter/coastal storm
for the northeast U.S. over the next couple of days. The upper
low supporting the surface low will become vertically stacked
and dumbbell around through the northeastern U.S. over the next
2-3 days. Thus, the coastal low and its associated effects will
be slow to leave the area.
Precipitation continues across much of the forecast area this
morning, but the expected dry slot is resulting in a decrease in
precipitation in the southwest part of the CWA already.
Furthermore, temperatures have been slow to drop below freezing
and generally have remained above freezing east of the Blue
Ridge and just to the freezing mark in the New River Valley.
This has resulted in far less accumulations of snow than was
expected. Furthermore, much of the precipitation has fallen as
rain or sleet as opposed to snow. Snow accumulations so far
have only been in the 1-3 inch range and with the dry slot working
its way into the CWA quickly and precipitation transitioning to
upslope as the day progresses and the low moves northeast, feel
that it will be hard to reach advertised amounts. Thus, snow
amounts have been lowered somewhat. With regard to the
warning/advisory status, did not want to do wholesale cutting
just yet, so removed Amherst and Rockbridge from the warning,
and removed Buckingham, Appomattox, and Campbell from the
advisory. Left the remaining counties as is, but feel that
Franklin and Bedford could also be removed very soon. Do not
want to remove the western counties just yet because of expected
upslope snow that should commence by afternoon.
Other issues are wind gusts and wind chills that will evolve
later today and Wednesday morning. Expect northwest winds to
increase as the coastal low deepens. Gusts to 45 mph, possibly
50 mph, can be expected across the higher terrain of northwest
NC, southwest VA, and eastern WV later today and especially
tonight and Wednesday. This information has been included in the
WSW at this point, but as the WSWs expire, an NPW will need to
be issued to cover these hazards.
Temperatures will remain fairly steady through the daytime, then
begin to fall sharply as much colder air spreads southeast
on the back side of the intensifying coastal low. Look for lows
early Wednesday to range from near 12 in the western mountains
to 22 in the southeast part of the Piedmont, with wind chills
from -5 to -10 across western Greenbrier and the higher
elevations of Bath county to around 5 above in Caswell. These
temperatures are 20 to 25 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...
The upper level low of the Noreaster will move east from the Ohio
Valley to the Mid Atlantic Wednesday morning. Short waves rounding
this low and wrap-around moisture will bring snow showers to the
mountains with light accumulations (up to an inch) along western
slopes into early Wednesday afternoon. The chances for greater than
two inches of snow will occur north of I64. During the afternoon the
upper low drifts off the Delmarva coast, taking majority of the
moisture with it. However, trajectories from the Great Lakes will
remain intact Wednesday night and with one final surge of cold air,
western slopes of southeastern West Virginia will see another inch
of snow. Dew points overnight Wednesday will be in the low single
digits or cooler, which will result in a dry snow that will likely
be blown around by the wind. Winds will be breezy and gusty behind
the departing low with the strongest period being Wednesday evening.
The inversion stays above 3000 feet Wednesday and Wednesday night to
keep the stronger winds aloft and therefore not seeing wind
headlines being issued with this package. However, wind chill values
drop to near zero across the mountains valleys and below zero along
ridgetops. If the forecast trends colder or winds are stronger for
Thursday morning, headlines for wind chills are possible.
Temperatures will be very cold Wednesday with records close to
lowest maximums for March 15th. See climate records below. Wednesday
temperatures will run 20F below normal with 20s west and mid to
upper 30s east. Temperatures will get a boost from lighter winds and
abundant sunshine Thursday but remain below normal by 10F-15F. Highs
Thursday will vary from the mid 30s in Bluefield to upper 40s at
Danville.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...
Upper trof moves offshore Thursday night with 500MB ridging on
Friday. An upper low develops over the Great Lakes on Saturday then
moves off the New England coast on Sunday. At the surface, the axis
of high pressure crosses the Mid Atlantic states on Thursday night.
A cold front will push across the area on Friday night. The high
that follows Friday night's system will arrive in the area on Monday
morning.
The low level jet backs to the west southwest with 850 MB wind
speeds of 45 to 55 knots Friday night. Ahead of this system,
temperatures warm back above freezing. Then cold air advection
Friday night at Saturday low 850MB temperatures back below zero on
Saturday and continue to lower through Sunday morning. Persistent
northwest winds until Monday morning. May not erode all the 1ow
level moisture and upslope showers until that time.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Tuesday...
Departing winter storm and building high pressure to the west
will keep a tight pressure gradient over the region through the
TAF period. This will create strong gusty northwest winds at
TAF sites, especially on Wednesday as good diurnal mixing allows
for better downward momentum transfer. The cold northwest winds
will also set up a typical upslope/downslope scenario with VFR
conditions east of the Blue Ridge and MVFR/IFR conditions in low
cigs and occasional snow showers to the west. Expect conditions
at KBLF and KLWB to be improving after daybreak on Wednesday.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
The slow moving vertically stacked coastal low will result in
gusty northwest winds and persistent snow showers across the
Alleghanys lingering into Thursday. MVFR cigs will prevail at
times across this region as well. For sites east of the Blue
Ridge, expect mainly VFR conditions Wednesday. Eventually, all
sites should reach VFR on Thursday with northwest winds slowly
weakening.
High pressure builds overhead on Thursday night. A weak low
pressure system should arrive from the west by Friday and
Saturday. Although precipitation appears mainly liquid, periods
of MVFR/IFR ceilings should accompany this system.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record mins and record low maxes are below for March 14th and
March 15th:
Tuesday 03/14/2017
Site MinT Year LoMax Year
KBLF 8 1993 18 1993
KDAN 15 1960 34 1993
KLYH 17 1968 28 1993
KROA 16 1993 23 1993
KRNK 8 1998 32 1960
Wednesday 03/15/2017
Site MinT Year LoMax Year
KBLF 6 1993 24 1988
KDAN 12 1993 34 1993
KLYH 7 1993 34 1937
KROA 9 1993 34 1988
KRNK 4 1993 22 1993
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ007-
015.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ001-
018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ042-
043.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for WVZ508.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/RAB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...AMS/RCS
AVIATION...AMS/MBS
CLIMATE...JMHazardous weather outlook, Mar 14, 12:13 PM EDT, 3 hours 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 WVZ508-150900- Western Greenbrier- 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ002-VAZ009>014-016>020-022>024-WVZ044-507-150900- Alleghany NC-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll- Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier- 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Northwest winds could gust to around 45 mph tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Northwest winds could gust to around 45 mph Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001-018-VAZ007-015-WVZ042-043-150900- Ashe-Watauga-Tazewell-Grayson-Mercer-Summers- 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-150900- Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin- Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham- Halifax-Charlotte- 1213 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 14, 11:48 AM EDT, 3 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1148 AM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 3 SW ROCKBRIDGE BATHS 37.87N 79.45W
03/14/2017 M1.0 INCH ROCKBRIDGE VA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER RNK1700558
PWLocal storm report, Mar 14, 11:55 AM EDT, 3 hours 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1155 AM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 AM SNOW ATKINS 36.87N 81.42W
03/14/2017 M2.0 INCH SMYTH VA AMATEUR RADIO
&&
EVENT NUMBER RNK1700559
PWLocal storm report, Mar 14, 11:56 AM EDT, 3 hours 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1156 AM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM SNOW CRAWLEY 37.93N 80.65W
03/14/2017 E3.0 INCH GREENBRIER WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
&&
EVENT NUMBER RNK1700560
PWLocal storm report, Mar 14, 11:57 AM EDT, 3 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1157 AM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM SNOW QUINWOOD 38.06N 80.70W
03/14/2017 E4.0 INCH GREENBRIER WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
&&
EVENT NUMBER RNK1700561
PWLocal storm report, Mar 14, 12:10 PM EDT, 3 hours 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1210 PM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM SNOW 4 ENE FRIES 36.74N 80.91W
03/14/2017 M0.5 INCH CARROLL VA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER RNK1700562
PWLocal storm report, Mar 14, 12:16 PM EDT, 3 hours 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1216 PM EDT TUE MAR 14 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0825 AM SNOW 1 SW TERRYS FORK 37.04N 80.28W
03/14/2017 M1.0 INCH FLOYD VA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER RNK1700563
PWNearby
Wind Chill Advisories in Virginia, 2017Wind Chill Advisories in West Virginia, 2017Wind Chill Advisories in North Carolina, 2017Every wind chill advisory in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.