Wind Advisory 5, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Wythe County, VA

759 
WWUS71 KRNK 090427
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1127 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...Strong winds expected on Thursday...

.Strong, gusty northwest winds are expected to develop as a storm
system exits the region early Thursday. Strongest winds are
expected from early morning into the afternoon as decreasing
cloud cover and cold temperatures aloft support frequent gusts.
Winds will gradually subside Thursday evening as the pressure
gradient slowly relaxes.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-022-091100-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.170209T0900Z-170210T0500Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Roanoke,
and Salem
1127 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* Locations...The spine of the Blue Ridge from Roanoke, VA to 
  Boone, NC.

* Hazards...Potentially damaging northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Timing...Gusty winds will begin to develop by early morning 
  Thursday, with the strongest wind gusts expected from mid- 
  morning into the afternoon. Wind gusts will then gradually 
  lower during the evening Thursday.

* Impacts...Some property damage and power outages are possible. 
  Trees or large tree limbs may be blown down. Travel may be 
  very difficult for high profile vehicles, especially those 
  traveling on southwest to northeast oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph are likely to cause power outages...fallen trees...
property damage...and dangerous driving conditions for high
profile vehicles. Move unfastened items...such as garbage cans
and deck furniture...indoors.

&&

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ009>014-018>020-023-024-032>035-091100-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.170209T0900Z-170210T0500Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Marion, Bland, 
Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle,
Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, and Amherst
1127 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* Locations...Portions of the New River Valley into the 
  Alleghany Highlands, as well as the foothills along the Blue 
  Ridge.

* Hazards...Strong, gusty northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Timing...Gusty winds will begin to develop by early morning 
  Thursday, with the strongest wind gusts expected from mid- 
  morning into the afternoon. Wind gusts will then gradually 
  lower during the evening Thursday.

* Impacts...Minor property damage and isolated power outages are 
  possible. Tree limbs may be blown down. Travel may be 
  difficult for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 MPH or gusts will range between 46 and 57 MPH. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use extra
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

414 
WWUS71 KRNK 090958
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
458 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...Strong winds expected today...

.Strong, gusty northwest winds can be expect today into this
evening. The strongest winds are expected this morning. Winds 
will gradually subside Thursday evening as the pressure gradient 
slowly relaxes.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-022-091800-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Roanoke,
and Salem
458 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

* Locations...The spine of the Blue Ridge from Roanoke, VA to 
  Boone, NC.

* Hazards...Damaging northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Timing...This morning through early evening. 

* Impacts...Some property damage and power outages are possible.
  Trees or large tree limbs may be blown down. Travel will be 
  very difficult for high profile vehicles, especially those 
  traveling on southwest to northeast oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph are likely to cause power outages, fallen trees, 
property damage and dangerous driving conditions for high profile
vehicles. Move unfastened items...such as garbage cans and deck 
furniture...indoors.


&&

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ009>014-018>020-023-024-032>035-091800-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Marion, Bland, 
Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle,
Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, and Amherst
458 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* Locations...Portions of the New River Valley into the 
  Alleghany Highlands, as well as the foothills along the Blue 
  Ridge.

* Hazards...Strong, gusty northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Timing...This morning through early evening.

* Impacts...Minor property damage and isolated power outages are 
  possible. Tree limbs may be blown down. Travel may be 
  difficult for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 MPH or gusts will range between 46 and 57 MPH. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use extra
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

328 
WWUS71 KRNK 091730
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1230 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...Strong winds expected into this evening...

.Strong, gusty northwest winds can be expect into this evening. 
The strongest winds are expected early this afternoon. Winds will
gradually subside Thursday evening as the pressure gradient 
slowly relaxes.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-022-100130-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Roanoke,
and Salem
1230 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* Locations...The spine of the Blue Ridge from Roanoke, VA to 
  Boone, NC.

* Hazards...Damaging northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon through early evening.

* Impacts...Some property damage and power outages are possible. 
  Trees or large tree limbs may be blown down. Travel will be 
  very difficult for high profile vehicles, especially those 
  traveling on southwest to northeast oriented roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph are likely to cause power outages, fallen trees,
property damage and dangerous driving conditions for high profile
vehicles. Move unfastened items...such as garbage cans and deck
furniture...indoors.

&&

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ009>014-018>020-023-024-032>035-100130-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Marion, Bland, 
Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle,
Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, and Amherst
1230 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* Locations...Portions of the New River Valley into the 
  Alleghany Highlands, as well as the foothills along the Blue 
  Ridge.

* Hazards...Strong, gusty northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Timing...This afternoon through early evening.

* Impacts...Minor property damage and isolated power outages are 
  possible. Tree limbs may be blown down. Travel may be 
  difficult for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 MPH or gusts will range between 46 and 57 MPH. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use extra
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

07

955 
WWUS71 KRNK 091959
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
259 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...Strong winds expected into this evening...

.Strong, gusty northwest winds can be expect into this evening.
The strongest winds will occur in the highest elevations along the
ridge crests, and along the Blue Ridge Parkway. Winds will 
gradually subside overnight tonight.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-022-100400-
/O.CAN.KRNK.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, Volney, Galax, Floyd, Roanoke,
and Salem
259 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a Wind
Advisory...which is in effect until midnight EST tonight. The
High Wind Warning has been cancelled.

* Locations...Portions of the New River Valley into the 
  Alleghany Highlands, as well as the foothills along the Blue 
  Ridge.

* Hazards...Strong, gusty northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Timing...Through this evening.

* Impacts...Minor property damage and isolated power outages are 
  possible. Tree limbs may be blown down. Travel may be 
  difficult for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 MPH or gusts will range between 46 and 57 MPH. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use extra
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

NCZ003-019-VAZ009>014-018>020-023-024-032>035-100400-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Surry-Wilkes-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-
Amherst-
Including the cities of Dobson, Wilkesboro, Marion, Bland, 
Pearisburg, Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, New Castle,
Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Fincastle, Lexington, 
Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, Bedford, and Amherst
259 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* Locations...Portions of the New River Valley into the 
  Alleghany Highlands, as well as the foothills along the Blue 
  Ridge.

* Hazards...Strong, gusty northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Through this evening.

* Impacts...Minor property damage and isolated power outages are 
  possible. Tree limbs may be blown down. Travel may be 
  difficult for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 MPH or gusts will range between 46 and 57 MPH. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use extra
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

601 
WWUS71 KRNK 100257
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
957 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...Strong winds decreasing across parts of the area...remaining
gusty in others...

.As the pressure gradient weakens across the area, most of
southwest Virginia is now experiencing wind gusts below advisory
levels. The northern mountains and portions of the foothills of
North Carolina, and adjoining higher terrain of Grayson County, VA
still can expect wind gusts near 50 mph through midnight.

NCZ003-VAZ009>014-016>020-022>024-032>035-100400-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Surry-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-
Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
Including the cities of Dobson, Marion, Bland, Pearisburg, 
Wytheville, Radford, Pulaski, Blacksburg, Galax, Floyd, 
New Castle, Clifton Forge, Covington, Hot Springs, Roanoke, 
Salem, Fincastle, Lexington, Buena Vista, Stuart, Rocky Mount, 
Bedford, and Amherst
957 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.

Winds speeds and gusts are decreasing. Most gusts the remainder 
of the evening will be in the 25 to 35 mph range.

$$

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-100500-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
957 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* Locations...Northern Mountains of North Carolina and neighboring
  Grayson County Virginia

* Hazards...Strong, gusty northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...Through midnight.

* Impacts...Minor property damage and isolated power outages are 
  possible. Tree limbs may be blown down. Travel may be 
  difficult for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 MPH or gusts will range between 46 and 57 MPH. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use extra
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

NCZ019-100500-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Wilkes-
Including the city of Wilkesboro
957 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* Locations...Portions of the New River Valley into the 
  Alleghany Highlands, as well as the foothills along the Blue 
  Ridge.

* Hazards...Strong, gusty northwest winds.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph,
  especially in areas nearest the Blue Ridge Parkway.

* Timing...Through midnight.

* Impacts...Minor property damage and isolated power outages are 
  possible. Tree limbs may be blown down. Travel may be 
  difficult for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 MPH or gusts will range between 46 and 57 MPH. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use extra
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

640 
WWUS71 KRNK 100450
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1150 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...Wind Advisory to expire at midnight...

.Wind gusts have begun to slowly subside and will continue to be
the case across the Advisory area as pressure gradient weakens and
low-level atmospheric winds diminish. With a decreasing trend in
wind gusts, the Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire as
scheduled at midnight. 

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015-100600-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Boone, 
Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
1150 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

Peak wind gusts have just occurred across Grayson County in
Virginia, as well as in Ashe and Watauga Counties in North
Carolina. A gradual decrease in wind gust speeds is expected to 
continue through the overnight hours. Therefore, the Wind 
Advisory will be allowed to expire as scheduled at midnight.

$$

NCZ019-100600-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-170210T0500Z/
Wilkes-
Including the city of Wilkesboro
1150 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

Peak wind gusts have already occurred in Wilkes County. A gradual
decrease in wind gust speeds is expected to continue through the 
overnight hours. Therefore, the Wind Advisory will be allowed to 
expire as scheduled at midnight.

$$

Loconto

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
257 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal boundary will lag across the area today into tonight. A
final wave of low pressure moves along this front by midnight
and shifts the front east by dawn. Colder air and stronger winds
slide through the area late tonight through Thursday. High
pressure pushes overhead by Friday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 AM EST Wednesday...

Little change made to the early morning forecast as overall
philosophy remains unchanged. Latest rapid update forecast
models indicate dry conditions through early evening when a deep
low pressure system enters our far western Virginia/southeast
West Virginia counties and zips rapidly eastward, dragging a
strong cold front with it that will trigger showers and possibly
a thunderstorm or two.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight a marginal
risk of severe storms over our southern tier of counties. Timing
of showers in the evening with limited instability leads to
lower confidence on severe, but there is enough steepening of
lapse rates to introduce isolated thunder over portions of the
area. Main threat would be isolated wind gusts over 55 mph. Will
mention this in the HWO.

Still calling for temperatures to be well above normal for
today, though not quite as warm as those observed on Tuesday,
and not likely to break any record highs for the date.
Currently, only Roanoke has a chance to tie a record high
minimum temperature for today if the temperature doesn't fall
below 52F before midnight. At any rate, still calling for high
temperatures this afternoon to range between the upper 50s/low
60s west of the Blue Ridge to the mid/upper 60s further east,
possibly touching 70 in spots across the Southside.

Behind the deep low pressure system, colder air works in
quickly per 00z ECMWF and should see any rain change to snow
showers in the mountains by midnight or shortly thereafter.
Timing of the low passing across shows it moving into the
piedmont by midnight Thursday, then off the Delmarva coast by
around daybreak. Appears will see a quicker drying trend by
late such that by dawn Thursday areas east of the Blue Ridge
should be dry, with upslope snow showers ongoing over the
mountains. Amounts going beyond this period will be in the
advisory range of 3" over western Greenbrier county, so will be
hoisting a winter wx advisory for them starting after midnight
tonight until early Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 510 AM EST Wednesday...

While the Winter Weather Advisory will still continue for
western Greenbrier, I've added a Wind Advisory with this
forecast package starting at 7 am Thursday through 7 pm Thursday
to address the wind threat for that period as well, running
from Roanoke County down the spine of the Blue Ridge into Ashe
and Watauga Counties in NC.

For Thursday: As developing surface cyclone lifts northeastward, we
should see a decreasing trend in PoPs across the Piedmont. Focus for
highest PoPs is restricted to the favored upslope areas in North
Carolina, far southern Virginia into southeast West Virginia.
However, given the progged level of instability, it's possible that
some of these snow showers advance as far east as the New River
Valley during the day. However, the best chance for significant
accumulations (up to 4") is in western Greenbrier County. Higher
snow to liquid ratios (something around 13 to 15:1) given the cold
invading air mass should be prevalent for Thursday along with a
saturated but shallow dendrite snow growth layer, offset by limited
moisture/QPF. Snow totals then taper 1-2" for the rest of southeast
WV into Tazewell County VA, and a coating to an inch for remaining
areas west of the Blue Ridge. Thus, even outside the Advisory area
there may still be travel concerns and drivers are encouraged to
drive slowly during the morning commute.

Will start to see gusty northwest winds develop as well, as strong
isallobaric pressure rises of up to 8-10 mb/6 hrs appear likely as
ridge builds in. Northwesterly low-level jet of 45 kts should be
transported downward with mixing enhanced by strong cold advection
that takes place. Inversion heights are not overly low, but feel
solid Wind Advisory criteria wind gusts (up to 55 mph) should be met
during the late morning to the afternoon hours in the Advisory area.
Blustery to breezy conditions are expected outside of the Blue
Ridge, and if greater confidence in higher wind speeds is noted in
later shifts, I could see adding the counties immediately west of
the Blue Ridge spine to the Advisory. Given the intruding cold air
mass and the gusty winds, will see chilly daytime wind chills west
of the Blue Ridge in the single digits to the mid teens.

As far as temperatures go, I used a non-diurnal temperature curve as
strong cold advection occurs all day offsetting sunshine. Our 850 mb
temperatures crash into the teens below zero through the end of the
period. Highs likely will not deviate much from tonight's forecast
lows early in the day. Steady cooling all day, with temps in 20s
west of the Blue Ridge and the mid/upper 30s out in the
Piedmont/foothills areas by early evening.

Thursday night: Pressure gradient relaxes early, allowing for winds
to subside and eventually becoming light by overnight. Upslope
snowfall should also decrease rather quickly as well. With skies
going clear we should see ideal radiational cooling conditions
develop across the entire forecast area. Lows were heavily weighted
toward the customarily colder MOSGuide, in the single digits to the
low 20s.

Friday through Friday evening: High pressure remains in control with
abundant sunshine and dry conditions. The period of cold
temperatures is brief however and we already start to moderate by
Friday afternoon into the evening. After a likely cold start, highs
should rebound back into the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows
dropping back into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Tuesday...

A warm front will spread high clouds over the region Saturday
while temperatures warm 10F-15F warmer than normal. Sunday will
be even warmer with afternoon temperatures in the 60s to lower
70s. These temperatures are around 20F warmer than normal. Some
warm air advection, jet-induced showers are possible across the
mountains Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

The next chance for rain areawide will come with a weak frontal
passage Monday. Temperatures will remain warmer than normal but
a little bit cooler than the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Wednesday...

Most airports are reporting VFR conditions this afternoon,
although one or two are still MVFR in residual low clouds. Winds
remain westerly areawide, with gusts as high as 15kt. Little
change in these conditions are expected through 09/00Z.

Rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will begin to
enter far western Virginia/Northern North Carolina by around
09/00Z ahead of a deep low pressure system that will pass across
the region overnight. At the moment, thunderstorm threat appears
minimal, with the highest threat affecting northern North
Carolina and extreme southern Virginia. It is possible that one
or two of the showers/storms that develop may bring stronger
winds aloft down to the surface, thereby introducing an isolated
damaging wind threat.

As showers move across with the low early in the night, will
see colder air start to draw in behind the associated cold front.
Once the front moves east, the lower cigs/vsbys should move into
BLF/LWB with vsbys mostly IFR compared to ceilings. Rain will
change to snow in the 04-07z time frame at these sites, with
drying taking shape east of the mountains.

Main concern for Thursday morning/afternoon will be strong
surface winds, frequently gusting 25kt to 35kt from the
northwest. Wind speeds will only slowly diminish during the
evening, with 20kt gusts possible west of the Blue Ridge until
midnight Friday morning. Northwesterly flow will promote rapid
clearing from east to west through the day.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Strong winds will be the main issue into Thursday evening along
with sub-VFR cigs/vsbys in the BLF/LWB corridor with snow
showers.

High pressure works in from the west Thu night so winds will
start to ease up and cigs will scatter out.

VFR expected through Saturday, but a weaker weather system may
bring sub- VFR conditions to western areas Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 1000 AM EST Wednesday...

Possible Record High Minimum Temperatures for Feb 8th:

Location      Record High Min   Year    Lowest Temp Today
Roanoke VA         52           2009           52

Record High Temperatures for Feb 8th:

Location      Record High   Year    Latest Forecast
Bluefield WV       64       2001	      59
Danville VA        73       2015          71
Lynchburg VA       75       1925          68
Roanoke VA         73       1925          67
Blacksburg VA      63       2015          61

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for VAZ015>017-
     022.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for NCZ001-002-
     018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for WVZ508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/NF/WP
CLIMATE...NF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
452 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

VAZ010>014-018>020-023-024-032>035-WVZ044-507-091000-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-
452 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Northwest winds may gust as high as 50 mph Thursday. A wind advisory
may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009-WVZ042-043-091000-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-SUMMERS-
452 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A light accumulation of snow is expected Thursday, along with gusty
winds up to 45 to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ043-044-058-091000-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
HALIFAX-
452 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening into early overnight that
could bring a brief period of strong winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ015>017-022-091000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-
452 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to WEATHER.GOV on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

  Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ045>047-059-091000-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-
452 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ508-091000-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
452 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to WEATHER.GOV on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

  Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to WEATHER.GOV on the
internet for more information about the following hazards.

  Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.