Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
146 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move slowly through the region Friday and Saturday
with a good chance of thunderstorms, followed by improving conditions
on Sunday. As another front approaches from the northwest, unsettled
weather with a chance for showers and thunderstorms will return to the
Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region for the first part of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Expectation is for showers/thunderstorms activity to wane after sunset
though some cells may linger into tonight. Partly cloudy thereafter
with some patchy fog developing late. Some remnant activity out ahead
of the approaching cold front moving in our direction from the
northwest will be knocking on our doorstep by daybreak but the highest
POPs with the front will hold off until later on Friday. There will be
ample instability to fuel convection tomorrow but the wind field
remains unimpressive and best dynamic forcing with the front looks to
be late in the day. Anticipate any marginal threat for severe storms
will reside in pulse activity ahead of the front and any storm
clusters/linear segments that accompany the front as it moves in late
tomorrow.

Overnight lows will remain warm again tonight with low/mid 70s east of
the Blue Ridge and low/mid 60s to the west. With more clouds and
increasing chances for showers/storms, expect highs tomorrow to be a
degree or two cooler with low/mid 90s east, mid 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Friday night, the cold front will gradually make its way southeast
through the area, and on Saturday be stalled over, or just south of
the far southeastern section of the forecast area. The results will
be scattered showers and storms Friday evening that decrease in
coverage during the night. On Saturday, heating of the day near the
proximity of the front will help refire showers and storms across
the southern quarter of the forecast area.

The Storm Prediction Center still has a Marginal risk of severe
weather across our area Friday night, with a focus on damaging winds
primarily during the evening hours. Although, the next higher
category, Slight, has been redrawn progressively closer to the
northeast portion of our region. For Saturday on the Day 3 Outlook,
the Marginal risk is confined to only parts of counties with
Southside Virginia and neighboring portions of north central North
Carolina.

Saturday night into Sunday, the front will make slow progression
south so that slightly cooler and drier air will make its way into
our area. Lingering isolated showers will still be possible Saturday
evening across the far southern and southeastern sections.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend slightly
cooler compared to those expected today and Friday to readings a few
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

This portion of the forecast continues to have two distinct
possibilities from the operational guidance. The GFS maintains a
persistent trough over the northeast U.S., all while an upper ridge
over the Central Plains states holds fast.  It's not until perhaps
the Thursday time period that there is any substantial shift
eastward in the position of this upper ridge. Its European
counterpart maintains a more progressive pattern, with the
ridge/trough alignment only temporary, with the ridge axis expanding
eastward even sooner, thus placing our region with a zonal flow
pattern, and relegating any remnant of a trough to our north.

Our forecast has been favoring the more stagnant pattern. It
reflects almost daily chances of showers/storms across the area as
disturbances head southeast into and through the region in
association with northwest flow on the west side of the trough axis.
At this point, there is no strong signal to flip-flop on this
scenario, and our forecast will continue to reflect the above
thinking.

What can be noted are those days where the strength of the passing
shortwave troughs look more potent than on other days. Currently,
the most promising days are Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average a few
degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Coverage of showers/thunderstorms today will be greater than yesterday,
but synoptic environment lacks any specific feature to narrow
timing/location so will go with VCTS through the first portion of the
valid period and amend as convective trends become more discernible.
Majority of activity will dissipate with loss of heating after sunset
with a remnant shower or two milling around late, but otherwise expect
VFR conditions through early tonight. Fog/stratus will form toward
daybreak especially at locations that receive direct rainfall this
afternoon/evening. However, amount of convective debris clouds will
determine how well we can radiate so will include obvis and low cigs at
KLWB and KBCB as these sites are most favored and monitor trends. Cold
front approaches from the northwest tomorrow with more
showers/thunderstorms developing Friday. Winds will generally be light
through the period.

Aviation Extended Discussion...

Scattered to numerous MVFR showers and thunderstorms are possible into
Saturday as a cold front lingers over the region. Sunday will be drier
with overall VFR conditions. Unsettled weather returns for Monday as an
upper trof becomes established over the eastern US with a diurnal
pattern of patchy fog/stratus overnight and a chance for
showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening with periods of VFR
in between.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...MBS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
252 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-140900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
252 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday afternoon and
evening. A few of these storms are expected to be come strong to
severe, with damaging wind gusts the main threat.

Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather through
the period is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-019-020-140900-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-
252 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina
and northwest North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are expected with a cold front Friday afternoon and
evening. A few of these storms are expected to be come strong to
severe, with damaging wind gusts the main threat.

As the front lingers across the area Saturday, a few severe
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather through
the period is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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