Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
736 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance over the mountains will move east across
the region tonight. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will drift south
across southside Virginia into North Carolina. The combination of
the disturbance and front will produce scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Additional opportunities for showers and storms
will occur Thursday into Friday as a steady stream of upper level
disturbances cross the Mid-Atlantic Region from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

Storms will continue to pass over the area this evening with a
decline in coverage from west to east starting at 8pm. Storms
are packing frequent lightning and loud thunder but none have
gone severe yet. CAPE values across Southside still look good
for the potential for strong to severe storms.

As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

Several shortwaves rotating across the region in the upper westerly
flow will result in periods of showers and thunderstorms. A remnant
weakening Mesoscale Convective Vortex near Roanoke will move east
this afternoon into tonight. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will drop
south across the region tonight. The Day One convective outlook
continues to highlight a marginal risk for severe storms for much of
the area. The main threat is for gusty winds in the strongest storms.
The combination of surface boundaries, solar heating with moderate
instability, CAPES 1-2 k J/kg could be enough for wet microburst
with stronger thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. The high
PWATS above 1.5 inches indicated that very efficient high rain rates
may occur where convection develops. The potential for some flooding
problems may develop with any slow moving or training heavier
thunderstorm into this evening. Halifax and Charlotte counties have
the best potential for water ponding problems. Because the coverage
of any flash flooding is not expected to be widespread enough and
relatively dry antecedent conditions, will hold off on flood watch.

The diurnally driven stronger deep convection will wane again this
evening with loss of daytime heating. However, a few showers may
linger into the overnight. The combination of low level moisture and
light winds will result in patchy fog overnight into Thursday
morning. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 60 degrees
in the mountains to near 70 degrees in the Piedmont.

Shortwaves will ripple along the frontal boundary lingering across
the region Thursday. The day 2 SPC outlook continues a marginal risk
for severe weather in the area.  Isolated damaging wind gusts and
hail are the primary threats with this activity. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon with instability
and boundaries. Precipitable water values continuing to run between
1.5 and 2.0 inches, there remains flooding potential especially for
locations that have received local downpours over the past few days.
Rain rates, movement and duration of thunderstorms will determine
any problems. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s in the
northwest mountains to near 90 degrees in the piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Short wave tracking out of the Tennessee Valley will cross the
region Thursday night and Friday. Then northern stream and digging
upper trough become more dominant pushing another upper wave through
on Saturday along with a surface cold front. Timing of the front on
the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS are similar. Precipitable water values
stay in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range until the Tennessee Valley
short waves comes through on Friday morning. Rainfall rates will
remain efficient plus slow movement of storm result will result
in heavy rain and the potential for flooding. Environment for
any severe thunderstorms most favorable on Friday night and
Saturday morning with a 70 knot mid level jet over the Mid
Atlantic region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1145 AM EDT Wednesday...

Pattern is fairly amplified this time frame with a large upper ridge
over the western United States and a trough in the east. Behind the
next northern stream short wave and surface front low level winds
turn to the northwest and there will be a 2 to 4 degree drop in 850
mb temperatures. This will drop maximum temperatures to near normal
on Sunday. with dry weather expected Saturday night through
Monday night. But by Tuesday, back in weak southwest flow and a
warm humid airmass with a least a low chance of daily afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

A westerly flow aloft and increasing easterly maritime low
level flow from the coast will continue during the taf period.
This will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms along
with areas of MVFR and local IFR through the period.

The diurnal nature of convection will allow thunderstorms to
taper off this evening with loss of solar heating. A few
showers will linger overnight. The combination of low level
moisture and light winds will result in patchy fog late tonight
into Thursday morning. KLWB will drop to IFR/LIFR in fog. While
MVFR is possible at KLYH,KDAN and KBCB. Morning low clouds and
low will lift quickly, returning to VFR conditions in most
area. Scattered MVFR convection will develop Thursday especially
during the afternoon.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Unsettled weather is expected over the Mid-Atlantic region
into Friday night with additional opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms associated with areas of MVFR and local IFR
conditions. Generally VFR conditions are anticipated for the
weekend as dry northwesterly winds develops for a few days.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
331 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

VAZ020-024-035-046-047-061200-
Bath-Rockbridge-Amherst-Appomattox-Buckingham-
331 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and west
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Very heavy rainfall from slow moving storms could result in
localized flooding this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday. Very heavy rainfall could also result in localized
flooding.

Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low Friday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ019-023-034-045-058-059-061200-
Alleghany VA-Botetourt-Bedford-Campbell-Halifax-Charlotte-
331 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging
winds will be possible this afternoon and evening. Very heavy
rainfall could also result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible again
Thursday. Very heavy rainfall could also result in localized
flooding.

Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low Friday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-WVZ042>044-507-508-061200-
Tazewell-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
331 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging
winds will be possible this afternoon and evening. Very heavy
rainfall could also result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible again
Thursday.

Very heavy rainfall from slow moving storms could result in
localized flooding on Thursday or Friday.

Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low Saturday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>018-022-032-033-043-044-061200-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-
Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Patrick-Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-
331 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging
winds will be possible this afternoon and evening. Very heavy
rainfall could also result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible again
Thursday. Very heavy rainfall could also result in localized
flooding.

Otherwise, the probability for widespread hazardous weather is
low Friday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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