Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
321 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms associated with a cold front
are expected to develop and move eastward across the region through
the afternoon into early evening. The strongest thunderstorms will
be capable of damaging winds and heavy downpours. The cold front
will then move more slowly eastward into eastern Virginia and
northern and central North Carolina tonight. Noticeably drier air
and mostly sunny conditions expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. The
next chance for more unsettled weather is not until late in the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...Severe thunderstorm watch 356 remains
in effect until 800 PM for the majority of counties in the
Virginia and North Carolina Piedmont, as well as the Blue Ridge
foothills in Virginia.

Cold front continues to progress eastward, with strong to severe
thunderstorms lying out ahead of the front. Regional radar shows
more cellular activity in the Piedmont currently, although
starting to see storms organize into a line that runs
essentially parallel to I-81. Instability values still remain
high - in the 2000-2500 J/kg range in terms of SBCAPE - in the
area ahead of the line and really have not been effectively
worked over from earlier pre-frontal cells. Effective shear
values are still somewhat marginal but are the increase,
supporting at least loosely organized storms. Primary spatial
area of greatest threat is in the Watch area as storms
approaching the Blue Ridge interact with the aforementioned
unstable air mass. Damaging winds posing the greatest potential
convective hazard. Localized heavy downpours are possible in any
thunderstorm. Recent short- term guidance moves the cold front
and associated frontal storms into the VA/NC Piedmont region
toward 8 pm. While the severe convective threat should have
shifted east and ended after sunset, will need to monitor for
localized hydro issues as the front slows and stalls near the
Southside and into the NC Piedmont. Will hold on any flash flood
watches due to lower confidence at this point. Behind the
front, much drier air should filter in associated with post-
frontal surface ridging. This may lead to development of patchy
fog as winds slacken after midnight, given recent rainfall and
in favored river valleys. Lows will tend warmest in eastern
counties in the mid/upper 60s, but running some 8 to 10 degrees
cooler from the Blue Ridge west.

Cooler and continued drier air filters into the region behind the
front for Tuesday. Dewpoints may be some 10 degrees lower than
today, so we should experience a little more refreshing air than the
past several days. Front does hang up along the southern Chesapeake
Bay west-southwest into central NC/SC, and some guidance suggests
slight to lower end Chance-range PoPs for showers overrunning the
boundary along/south of Route 58.  Highs look to top out from the
mid 70s to middle 80s, warmest in the VA Piedmont due to added
warming effect from northwest downslope off the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Tuesday night into Wednesday, the cold front will remain positioned
just to the southeast of the region. It will be in close enough
proximity for precipitation associated with weak waves moving along
it to spread showers into southern and southeastern section of the
forecast area. Gradually, coverage will diminish by Wednesday evening
as the front inches its way far enough from the region.

The break in the precipitation will be short lived.  The moisture
fetch back into the region will start to increase on the east side
of a remnant low that is progged to be positioned somewhere near
LA/TX by mid-day Thursday. Look for showers to increase across the
area from south to north during the course of the day, but probably
be no more organized than isolated to scattered coverage.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be within a
couple of degrees within normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Thursday night through Saturday continues to look to be on the wet
side. Guidance is trending with more consistency regarding tropical
moisture/remnant tropical system moving northeast into or near our
region coincident to the arrival of a cold front. While exact timing
still is in question, the general trend of this scenario is looking
more promising. The result could be a period with some localized
flash flooding in the near term, followed closely behind with some
longer term river flooding. Again, it is too early for any
specifics, but if timing of both the front and tropical moisture are
just right, not an unreasonable scenario.

For Sunday, the region is expected to be on the backside of the
departing surface cold front. At the same time, the upper trough
axis associated with the cold front's parent low is expect to cross
the area. While the GFS is less robust with this feature, its
European counterpart hints at both more activity from this trough,
plus less progression southeast of the surface cold front, thus
keeping it in closer proximity to the southeastern sections of the
region. The GFS provides a dry forecast by Monday, but not so much
so by its counterpart with showers lingering across the southeast
still on Monday.

During this portion of the forecast, high temperatures will be plus
or minus a degree or two of normal, with low temperatures a few
degrees above normal on average.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 132 PM EDT Monday...

VFR outside of scattered thunderstorms, some of which may reach
strong to locally severe limits. Specific timing is poor on
these with frequent amendments likely to address imminent
thunderstorms at any airports. Any thunderstorm capable of
temporary IFR to LIFR visibility in heavy rain, localized
turbulence/wind shear, hail and frequent lightning. Storms
should clear the terminals by 800 PM. Focus shifts to patchy
fog, most likely through the Greenbrier and New River valleys
late tonight with MVFR visibilities. It is possible that
visibilities may be much lower if there is more clearing behind
the front than presently expected. Expect south winds 6-10 kts
veering to west 3-7 kts through 00z with FROPA, then becoming
light and variable as ridging builds in by mid-evening.

Generally VFR anticipated for Tuesday with west winds 4-8 kts.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Will see more widespread VFR conditions behind the front with
only brief periods of fog resulting in brief sub-VFR during the
late night/early morning hours for Tuesday through Thursday.
More widespread precipitation and the possibility of sub-VFR
conditions, returns on Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AL
NEAR TERM...AL
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AL/AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
332 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-201945-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
332 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through the rest
of the afternoon. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the primary
threats with any of the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather Tuesday
through Thursday.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ015>017-201945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-
332 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through the
rest of the afternoon into early this evening. Gusty winds and heavy
rain will be the primary threats with any of the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather Tuesday
through Thursday.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004>006-VAZ022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-201945-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-
Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
332 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and
west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather Tuesday
through Thursday.

Locally heavy rain is possible Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
404 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

VAZ022-033>035-045-192045-
Franklin-Amherst-Campbell-Roanoke-Bedford-
404 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN ROANOKE...NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL...BEDFORD...SOUTHERN
AMHERST AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
LYNCHBURG...

At 403 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Snowden to near Roanoke Mountain.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lynchburg...
Bedford...
Amherst...
Boones Mill...
and Stewartsville.

LAT...LON 3712 7936 3712 7938 3709 7939 3712 8000
      3746 7961 3745 7959 3750 7956 3749 7954
      3757 7944 3759 7945 3761 7943 3756 7891
      3755 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 268DEG 25KT 3760 7933 3718 7987

JR

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