Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Blacksburg, VA

033 
WWUS51 KRNK 152311
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
711 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

VAC019-067-152321-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-170615T2330Z/
Bedford VA-Franklin VA-
711 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
WEST CENTRAL BEDFORD AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3734 7965 3707 7975 3714 7994 3716 7993
      3718 7990 3721 7988 3722 7987 3722 7985
      3723 7984 3726 7986 3729 7985 3730 7984
      3731 7985 3732 7983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 272DEG 8KT 3726 7980 

$$

RS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
300 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will maintain a warm and humid airmass
across the region into this weekend. A weak cold front will
approach the area from the west this weekend with added showers
and storms likely into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Coverage of convection has been lower than earlier anticipated,
possibly due to residual effects of bubble high behind outflow
from overnight convection upstream. However, latest satellite
trends and instability from mesoanalysis indicate conditions
remain favorable for convection to bloom into this evening aided
by approaching upper trof. In anticipation of this will
maintain healthy POPs for the next several hours then trend
things downward after 00Z. While synoptic environment lacks
shear, considerable instability will keep the threat of severe
storms in play as healthy updrafts may produce hail even with
deep warmth and DCAPE values will boost outflow. Any clusters
that develop will also bear close scrutiny as cold pool
interactions may boost storm development. Heavy downpours are
also a good bet and may give rise to local hydro problems.

Things quiet down overnight with more patchy dense fog developing
toward morning. Once the fog burns off, another bout of diurnal
convection is expected tomorrow with the upper trof axis slowly
drifts into the region.

Expect a continuation of warm and muggy conditions with
temperatures remaining right around will remain right around
seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

The Subtropical ridge will hold along the East Coast with the main
zonal mid to upper level westerlies remaining across the northern
U.S. Friday night into Sunday night. The timing of the mid-level
weakness or trough in the broader subtropical ridge could be the key
to the weather across the southeastern CONUS.

The combination of solar heating, unstable air, upper shortwaves,
orographic lift and surface boundaries will result in the daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. SPC Day two convective outlook highlights a
marginal potential for severe thunderstorms on Friday afternoon into
Friday evening. Moderately large CAPE may be conducive to "pulse"
thunderstorms capable of producing at least localized strong
downbursts. With a relative light mean flow, there is also the
potential for flooding issues especially with high rainfall rates,
slow moving or training thunderstorms.

A upper level trough will slide eastward and reach the Great Lake
region on Sunday. Surface cold front will move from the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley by Sunday night. Not expecting a complete washout
for outdoor activity this Father's day weekend, but keep an eye to
the sky each afternoon and make sure action is taken if storms
approach.  With 850 mb temperatures remaining from plus 16 to plus
18C, expect high temperatures Saturday and Sunday to range from the
mid 70s in the mountains to the upper 80s in the Piedmont. Overnight
low temperatures will remain mild with readings from the upper 50s
in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

An upper low will move northeast from the Great lakes into Eastern
Canada on Monday and push a deep trof into the eastern US. There is
enough momentum to propel a strong cold front through the region on
Monday with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Moderate
instability and better low level wind field support the potential for
severe weather. The front will stall and linger close enough to keep
a chance for some scattered showers thunderstorms especially east of
the Blue Ridge for Tuesday and Wednesday. A secondary cold front may
create a few showers for Thursday. Cloud cover and convection will
hold temperatures down for Monday. Then, behind the cold front
cooler conditions expected Tuesday followed by moderating
temperatures into the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Expect aviation conditions this period will be quite similar to
previous days. Convection will have a strong diurnal trend and
should dissipate early tonight. Coverage of showers/storms has
been sparse thus far, but believe there is ample instability to
help convection bloom over the next few hours. Will use VCTS and
amend based on radar trends as things progress.

Overnight, expect lingering showers to dissipate and clouds to
scatter out. This will allow for fog/stratus development toward
daybreak. The fog will be most problematic at airfields that
experience direct rainfall so will fine tune obvis with later
TAF packages. For now, will indicate fog/stratus at the
climatologically favored locations of KLWB and KBCB, and also at
KLYH and KDAN where vsbys were quite low this morning.

Outside of thunderstroms winds will generally be light through
the period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Very moist and unstable conditions combine with an approaching
trof to keep convective activity, with a strong diurnal trend,
in the forecast into the weekend. There will also be a trend fog
fog/stratus development during the predawn hours. A better
chance for more widespread showers and storms including sub-VFR
looks to arrive on Monday with a surface cold front perhaps
crossing the region. This will allow for extended periods of
sub- VFR ceilings and visibilities. In addition, radiational
late night/early morning fog will be on the increase.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MBS/JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...MBS/JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
306 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-160900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
306 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms could occur this afternoon
and evening with damaging winds and hail the main threats. In
addition, slow moving heavy rain producing storms could produce
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rounds of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will
occur from Friday into early next week with the more widespread
coverage likely on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
524 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

VAZ024-152200-
Rockbridge-
524 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY...

At 523 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Goshen, moving
east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goshen...
Rockbridge Baths...
Fairfield...
Bells Valley...
and Brownsburg.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3792 7919 3789 7915 3786 7915 3791 7960
      3795 7959 3803 7951 3805 7952 3806 7950
      3807 7944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 267DEG 18KT 3797 7952

RS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
531 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             4 WNW PILOT             37.06N 80.45W
06/15/2017  E0.25 INCH       MONTGOMERY         VA   PUBLIC

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
538 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W CHRISTIANSBURG      37.13N 80.50W
06/15/2017                   MONTGOMERY         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS DOWNED A TREE ALONG FIRETOWER ROAD
            TEMPORARILY CLOSING IT TO THROUGH TRAFFIC.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
540 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SE CHRISTIANSBURG       37.14N 80.40W
06/15/2017                   MONTGOMERY         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS DOWNED SEVERAL TREES ALONG ELLETT ROAD
            NEAR THE CITY OF CHRISTIANSBURG TEMPORARILY CLOSING IT.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
624 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W HOLLINS             37.34N 79.97W
06/15/2017  M3.52 INCH       ROANOKE            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
628 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW ROANOKE           37.33N 79.98W
06/15/2017  M62 MPH          CITY OF ROANOKE    VA   ASOS

            54KT REPORTED AT KROA.

&&

JRUCKMAN