Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
809 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible this evening with
a risk for heavy downpours as well. A cold front crosses tonight,
and then another crosses Monday night. High pressure midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As 400 PM Sunday...

Adjusted hourly and Max temperatures per latest sfc obs.
Radar images show little if any light shower across the area.
Therefore, decrease PoPs considerably and blend them into
tonight's PoPs with higher PoPs with the cold front.

Cold front expected to cross around 06Z. Therefore, will cancel
Flash Flood watch for the entire area.

As of 150 PM Sunday...

Severe threat for much of this afternoon a bit iffy, and SPC has
cut back the threat from Slight to Marginal. Cloud cover from
earlier convection continues to hang across the area, which will
help to limit destabilization somewhat. However, models still
indicating an uptick in activity later this evening and tonight,
as upper shortwave trough digs south across the region, and
surface cold front approaches from the west.

Last night, quite a bit of precipitation from convection, with
parts of southeast Ohio, northern WV and northeast Kentucky
receiving a general 2 to 5 inches. Any additional convection
today could create additional water issues on already saturated
soils, and will keep flood watch going.

Initial frontal boundary moves through late tonight, with
precipitation gradually decreasing in coverage late. A secondary
front will cross on Monday, with isolated convection, but
overall, much drier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

The last gasp at any showers and thunderstorms during the overnight
hours associated with a weak front will slide through the areas
Monday night. Behind the front, high pressure will take its
place. Drier air will greet the forecast area bring small
reprieve from the muggy,stormy and hot weather on Tuesday. This
does not last long though. Some Mountain showers and
thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday into Wednesday night as
moisture surges northward in combination with a weak shortwave.

Temperatures will be very close to climatology through this
period. High will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s
in the lowlands. The mountains will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s during the day with overnight lowers in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

The next cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes
Region late week. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the front. Timing will need to be monitored
as currently, models suggest moisture increases substantially by
Friday afternoon. For now, will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances in late week. Should trends continue, could have heavy
rain with thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

Temperatures will continue to be seasonal through late week.
Lowland highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the
60s. The mountains will feature highs in the lower 80s with lows
in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Satellite
images show mostly clear skies across our CWA. The exception is
over extreme southwest VA where afternoon convection is evident
in radar. This activity is expected to diminish in intensity by
sunset, but will stay southeast of BKW.

Additional disorganized convection is evident on radar across
OH. Expect brief MVFR and IFR conditions in vicinity of storms
perhaps could affect PKB and CKB overnight.

VFR conditions will prevail once again Monday outside any
shower.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorm coverage could be more
widespread than anticipated. MVFR and IFR cigs late tonight
could be more widespread than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 07/24/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

IFR Fog possible early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
756 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

OHZ076-WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032-039-040-519>526-250000-
Washington-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-
Barbour-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
756 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall through early Monday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>007-013>015-
024>026-033-034-515>518-250000-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Jackson OH-
Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-
Mason-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-
756 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of southeast
West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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