Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1047 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still possible Sunday with
risk for heavy rainfall and potential flooding. Fronts cross
late Sunday and again late Monday. High pressure midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1042 PM Saturday...

Sent an update to adjust PoPs according to latest radar images.
Radar shows like a boundary sinking south with convection along
it. Frequent lightning, brief torrential rain, and strong gusty
winds are possible with these storms. These storms will affect
the southern half of the area through at least midnight.

As of 845 PM Saturday...

Adjusted hourly temperatures since cooling showers/storms and
clouds have decrease temperatures about 10 degrees across the
northern third of the area since this afternoon. Rest of
forecast remains on track.

As of 710 PM Saturday...

Sent update to remove some counties out of the severe
thunderstorm watch. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 354 PM Saturday...

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of
southeast OH and portions of the northern half of WV until 10
PM.

As of 155 PM Saturday...

MCS moved across northern zones this morning, producing
generally an inch or so of precipitation. Area in the warm
sector of a low pressure system moving across Great Lakes
region, with sct showers and thunderstorms popping up area wide
in the warm, humid, unstable conditions. With the lower
FFG/wetter soils across the north, and the potential for
additional MCS overnight, went ahead an hoisted a flash flood
watch for the area through Sunday morning. This may need to be
expanded in area or even in time as we progress, but for now,
just decided to issue for the wetter areas/greatest threat
region.

In addition to flooding issues, the potential for severe exists
through much of the night, with strong shear on the order of 40+
kts. SPC has issued a slight risk for most of the CWA through
12Z Sunday, with a slight risk area wide on Sunday for an
additional severe thunderstorm threat, as the cold front
approaches the area from the north. Frontal boundary should be
entering SE Ohio zones towards the end of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Saturday...

Models in good agreement in a significant short wave amplifying
the northern stream over the eastern U.S., which finally drives
the very deep and moist unstable air with the cold front
eastward across most the area Sunday night. Even though the
front gets hung up in the mountains by Monday morning, the
really deep moisture and convection should continue eastward
with the main departing short wave. By Monday morning, we expect
most of the area to be dry, except across the far southern coal
fields and southern mountains where some lingering convection
may continue.

Thereafter, models have another short wave and cold front
dropping southeast through the Great Lakes and across the area
Monday afternoon and night. Even though moisture will be more
limited with this feature, there will be enough moisture to
combine with diurnal heating to fire up a band of convection
with the front. Things will finally die down Monday night, with
most areas dry by Tuesday morning. However, again, this new
front will struggle to exit the far south and have left a few
showers possible there Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 PM Saturday...

High pressure builds in briefly Tuesday and Tuesday night with
slightly cooler but drier air.

However, models agree in another short wave and front diving
southeast across the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, with
enough dynamics, moisture and instability to fire yet another
band of convection ahead of the front. But it will be a bit
cooler and less on the summer heat and humidity. But despite
this latest short wave and front, the models quickly lift out
the upper trough and return the front northward Thursday, which
meanders across the area for the later part of the work week.
Again, lots of moisture will be available to keep things very
unsettled with the meandering front, although temperatures are
progged to be tempered by the clouds and precip.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM Saturday...

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, some with heavy
rain will continue to affect the northern sites at least
through 01Z. Mostly MVFR conditions will prevail outside brief
periods of IFR/LIFR along their path. Uncertain whether
convection will affect northern sites directly, so coded VCTS
overnight. Expect MVFR and IFR conditions in vicinity of storms,
along with strong gusty winds.

A look at boundary layer winds indicate 15-20 knots across the
south, and 5-10 knots across the north. The stronger winds and
expected cloud cover could prevent dense fog from development.
However, the northern sites have received enough rain during the
afternoon and evening hours. Post fog will be possible once the
pcpn ends but should not last much.

For Sunday, another stormy day. SPC has the area under a slight
risk for severe weather. Damaging winds will be the main threat.
IFR or worst conditions can be expected along convection path.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection could be less widespread than
currently forecast. Conditions on Sunday may not improve as
quickly as currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SUN 07/23/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    M    M    M    L    M    L    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible Sunday night in heavy showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ007>011-014>020-
     027>032-039-040-517>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ/JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...SL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
808 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

OHZ083>086-WVZ007-008-014>016-018-027>029-517>526-240015-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Mason-Jackson WV-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-
Calhoun-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
808 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists Sunday. Damaging winds
are the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ034-515-516-240015-
Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
808 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast West
Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists today and tonight.
Damaging winds are the primary threat. In addition, heavy downpours
will accompany any storms, and could create localized flooding
issues. A flash flood watch may be necessary.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists on Sunday. Damaging
winds are the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ026-240015-
Boone-
808 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists today and tonight.
Damaging winds are the primary threat. In addition, heavy downpours
will accompany any storms, and could create localized flooding
issues. A flash flood watch may be necessary.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists on Sunday. Damaging
winds are the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ066-067-075-076-WVZ009>011-017-019-020-030>032-039-040-240015-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Wirt-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
808 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists Sunday. Damaging winds
are the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ087-WVZ006-013-240015-
Lawrence OH-Cabell-Lincoln-
808 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists today and tonight.
Damaging winds are the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists Sunday. Damaging winds
are the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ101>103-105-WVZ005-024-025-240015-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Wayne-Mingo-Logan-
808 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, and
portions of southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists today and tonight.
Damaging winds are the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists Sunday. Damaging winds
are the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-240015-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-
808 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours are possible tonight
across the area. A flash flood watch may be necessary.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms exists on Sunday. Damaging
winds are the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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