Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
757 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
One last band of showers and storms in the humid airmass
expected ahead of a cold front passing tonight. High pressure
will build in for a drier weekend. Next cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 735 PM Friday...

Main axis of activity has shifted into the southern Coal Fields,
where some training has resulted in to some 2 to as much 3
inches across southern Mingo County. Elsewhere, things are
quieting down for the most part. Kept some isolated shra/tsra in
the forecast this evening, especially across the north where
some convection may fire with the actual cold front. The bigger
story will the be the areas of dense fog and low stratus that
will form. I have kept the idea from the day shift of holding on
to this through a chunk of the morning hours, gradually lifting
into a general stratus deck before scattering into a cu field
by late morning or midday.

As of 325 PM Friday...

Band of showers and thunderstorms extended from the middle Ohio
Valley northeastward through central and northeastern WV this
afternoon was slow moving, but beginning to pick as speed, as
wave evident via GOES-R and radar imagery over the middle Ohio
Valley, moves east.

The storms have been pulse in nature and sub-severe, owing to
lack of deep shear. However, low FFG values in the flood watch
area in northern WV can lead to flooding where multiple storms
hit. The increasing speed of the band should gradually alleviate
this threat this evening.

The flood threat due to new rain was waning in southeast Ohio,
almost but not quite to the Ohio River, as 4 pm approached.
However, northern Perry county, which got hit hard yesterday,
was still experiencing flood waters that will only slowly recede
through tonight.

Areas of fog and low clouds are likely to form in the wake of
the cold front overnight tonight. This will slowly mix out into
morning and midday cu, which will then evolve into a scattered
regular afternoon cu field on Saturday.

Temperatures close to guidance, only slowly falling tonight
outside wet bulb effects, but then slowly rising Saturday
morning given a plethora of cloud.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM Friday...

High pressure will give way to a approaching cold front.  As a
result, dry weather should dominate much of the region early with
shower and storm chances increasing from the northwest by Sunday
night.

Temperatures should be seasonable through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM Friday...

The cold front will push southeast of the region Monday with a good
chance of showers and storms.  Shower and storm chances should
decrease from the west Monday night with a small chance of
precipitation in the mountains On Tuesday.

High pressure will then take control for Tuesday night and then
remain in control of the weather into Thursday. Another cold front
will approach from the north Thursday night bringing precipitation
chances back to portions of southeast Ohio and the northern counties
of West Virginia for Thursday night and then across much of the area
on Friday.

Normal temperatures on Monday should give way to slightly above
normal readings for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Friday...

Much of the convective activity was located across southern as
of this issuance. I have inserted a tempo MVFR vsby group in
TSRA thru 02z. Otherwise just an isolated shra/tsra threat
tonight for northern terminals as the cold front crosses.

In the wake of the front, low clouds and areas of dense fog are
likely to form and last into Saturday morning. This will mix
into MVFR morning cu through late morning and midday on
Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, degree and extent of fog and low
clouds will vary, especially on formation.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/15/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    L    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR or worse in river valley fog possible again Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
608 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-152215-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
608 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
607 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

WVZ013-024>026-142230-
Boone-Lincoln-Logan-Mingo-
607 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MINGO...SOUTH CENTRAL
LINCOLN...NORTHERN LOGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTIES...

At 606 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Harts, or 10
miles northwest of Logan, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Logan, Chapmanville, Chief Logan State, Van, Harts, Mount
Gay-Shamrock, Amherstdale-Robinette, West Logan, Mitchell Heights,
Turtle Creek, Blair, Sharples and Jeffrey.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 28 and 50.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3790 8221 3807 8218 3806 8167 3779 8171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 277DEG 34KT 3798 8209

kistner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
646 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

WVZ024-033-034-515-516-142315-
Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-McDowell-Southeast Raleigh-Mingo-
646 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MINGO...SOUTH CENTRAL RALEIGH AND SOUTHERN WYOMING COUNTIES...

At 646 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hanover, or 14
miles northwest of Welch, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Welch, Pineville, Mullens, Northfork, Hanover, R.d. Bailey Lake,
Gilbert Creek, Davy, Iaeger, Keystone, Kimball, Maybeury, Wolf Pen,
Baileysville and Herndon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3749 8192 3760 8188 3760 8117 3758 8117
      3758 8120 3754 8120 3751 8121 3750 8126
      3748 8127 3746 8131 3742 8128 3741 8129
      3742 8131 3736 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 276DEG 18KT 3753 8180

kistner

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