Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
831 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses Saturday morning. Cooler and less humid
under high pressure Sunday. Unsettled weather returns next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 PM Friday...
Squall line extending south and west from MCV over central OHIO
at 8 PM will move southeast across the area early tonight, with
some post MCS stratiform rain for a few hours behind the line.
Thereafter, expect low clouds and some fog to form later
tonight. Severe thunderstorm watch in effect to at least 9 PM
over portions of west central WV...extreme northeastern KY...and
extreme southeastern OH.

As of 157 PM Friday...

A series of convective complexes will affect the area this
afternoon and tonight. Radar and sfc obs one complex spreading
showers and thunderstorms across southeast OH. This activity
will likely produce heavy rain and gusty winds up to 40 knots
across the northern sections late this afternoon and evening.

Models bring a second storm complex dropping southeast, closer
to the front, moving into an unstable area. Deep layered shear
increases to 50 knots, pwats around 2 inches and sfc CAPE
decreasing to 1000 J/Kg suggest storms could reaching severe
limits prior and after 00Z tonight. The major threat will be
damaging winds. There is a severe thunderstorm watch in effect
until 00Z Saturday.

The actual cold front crosses the area by 12Z Saturday and
exits the eastern mountains by mid morning. Conditions will
improve behind the front with drier airmass and high pressure
building from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Friday...

With the cold front having exited the area, expecting a dry
period before more unsettled weather returns. Temperatures will
remain seasonal, but much drier air filtering in will keep
conditions pleasant. Used a blend of guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM Friday...

Northwest flow will become more zonal as the overall longwave
pattern de-amplifies across the US. Multiple low pressure
centers well north of the area will continue sending waves of
energy southward, keeping periods of unsettled weather through
the week ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z Saturday thru 00Z Sunday...
As of 815 PM Friday...

For tonight...
Squall line moving southeastward across the area early tonight,
with some stratiform rain expected for a few hours behind the
line. Most of the precip will be south and east of HTS- CRW-
CKB line by 05Z and exiting the southern mountains and
southwest VA by 10Z.

Expect MVFR to IFR in the complex with gusty northwest winds,
then MVFR-IFR ceilings and VSBY developing after 06Z behind the
precip. Outside the storms light to variable winds are expected.

For Saturday...
Ceilings improving to MVFR by 15Z and VFR by 18Z, scattering out
from northwest to southeast thereafter. Becoming west winds 6
to 12 kt by afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of IFR/LIFR conditions
behind the convection tonight and early Saturday may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/08/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    L    L    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
Dense valley fog possible early Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/DTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...MC/DTC
LONG TERM...MC/DTC
AVIATION...JMV

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
837 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE OAK HILL          38.91N 82.56W
07/07/2017                   JACKSON            OH   911 CALL CENTER

            JOHN EVANS RD FLOODED AND CLOSED.

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
844 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW COALTON           39.08N 82.63W
07/07/2017                   JACKSON            OH   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ALONG PRICES SWITCH RD.

&&

NW

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