Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 PM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area tonight. Scattered
showers accompany an upper level low through much of the
workweek. A brief break in showers on Friday before the next
system enters the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Plenty of moisture remains across the forecast area this
afternoon. Rainfall amount of over 3 inches in some locations in
Fayette and Raleigh counties have been reported causing some
flooding. While no mid morning thunderstorms have occurred, do
anticipate the possibility of a storm or two later this
afternoon and evening. Convection is forming along and ahead of
a cold front. Any storm that does form will be capable of
strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

The cold front will sink south later this evening into the overnight
hours. While the moderate to heavy rain will end, showers will
linger. An upper low will remain in place through this period.
Low clouds and cooler high temperatures will occur tomorrow.
Highs will only climb into the mid 60s in the higher elevations
with lower 70s in the lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 225 PM Monday...

5h low spins out in vicinity of forecast area throughout the
period. Models in general agreement with overall synoptic
pattern, with best dynamics and moisture hanging well offshore
along the Eastern seaboard. By Friday, upper level low begins to
scoot northeastward toward New England as high pressure builds
in from the west. Generally below normal temps with chance pops
will be the rule through Friday. Vort lobes will spin about the
main upper low, and the models are showing some differences in
handling these smaller scale features. For consistancy sake,
stayed close to model blend for the entrire forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 225 PM Monday...

5h ridge build into the eastern US with southwest flow regime
developing. Gulf moisture remains well south of the forecast
area. Blended model values looked fine for this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Continued showers at most TAF sites are leading to MVFR and IFR
conditions. This is expected to continue through the next few
hours. A cold front is approaching from the northwest during the
afternoon hours. Additional showers and possibility a
thunderstorm or two will occur with the front. Any storm that
does form will be capable of gusty winds and IFR conditions with
heavy rain.

The cold front will move south of the area overnight. Plenty of
low level moisture will linger. The result will be a low
stratus cloud deck with MVFR and IFR conditions for the TAF
duration.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Increased coverage of storms are possible
resulting in lower ceilings and visibilities. Decreased clouds
overnight may mean higher ceilings.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...

IFR conditions are possible on Tuesday with scattered showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JB
NEAR TERM...JB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
245 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-515>526-060645-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
245 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-
039-040-060645-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
245 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
339 PM EDT MON JUN 5 2017

KYZ101-102-052045-
Greenup-Carter-
339 PM EDT MON JUN 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENUP AND NORTHEASTERN CARTER
COUNTIES...

At 339 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Letitia, or 8
miles south of Portsmouth, moving south at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grayson, Greenup, Load, Gesling, Greenbo Lake, Oldtown, Letitia,
Franklin Furnace, Carter, South Shore, Hopewell, Brushart, Haverhill,
Warnock, Grays Branch and South Portsmouth.

This includes Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 172 and
173.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3847 8319 3849 8319 3855 8310 3859 8307
      3863 8307 3864 8305 3866 8305 3868 8303
      3873 8303 3872 8298 3874 8294 3875 8288
      3873 8287 3869 8288 3866 8286 3860 8285
      3857 8281 3847 8280 3834 8292 3845 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 350DEG 18KT 3864 8299

13

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