Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
522 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moves in from the west tonight, and then lifts back
north, keeping area unstable this weekend. A new cold front
crosses from the west Sunday night. High pressure Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 515 PM Friday

Surface low pressure located just northwest of the CWA with a
cold front extending south-southwestward from it, eventually
tailing back to the southwest through the lower Ohio River
Valley as of 5 PM.

CAPE values were up around 2500 J/kg ahead of the storms but the
shear was largely north of the low pressure center and most of
the storms. However, 15 to 20 kts h85 flow and 25 to 30 kts
mean h85-h5 flow could still support some storm organization.

Adjusted PoPs, clouds and thunder to better reflect line of
storms along cold front traversing east across the area
overnight. Severe weather wording added where watch 247 is in
effect until 11 pm over much of the middle Ohio Valley, then
the intensity and coverage decrease overnight.

As of 205 PM Friday...

The convection that moved into the southern CWA this morning
has completely disrupted the overall synoptic setup, so there is
some disarray to the activity this afternoon and what is
expected later tonight. Got a mesohigh developed where the
decaying convection/stratiform rain shield resides from the
morning activity, with a northerly moving outflow boundary
sparking the next round of convection across the northern tier.
This has made the warm front over the area all but impossible to
locate. The cool mesohigh has either made a pocket within the
warm sector that is trying to move north, or it is holding up
the front. Either way, modification of what is left over of
heating today could be enough to get another round of isolated
convection into the evening as the synoptic flow of the warm
sector gets going again.

High res models indicating another wave of activity moving in
from the northwest heading into early tonight, so ramp the POPs
up to likely in this area. Overall the activity has remained
largely below severe limits, and expect that trend to continue,
although given the slight risk that was extended into the area,
isolated severe cannot be ruled out. Flow aloft still remains a
limiting factor here. Will need to watch the coal fields for
additional rain with well over an inch falling earlier this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Saturday night will feature a lifting warm front to the
northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during
this time. Any storm that does move across the area will be capable
of heavy rain. Additional rain will accompany the cold front on
Sunday. As the frontal system moves east, rainfall will
diminish during the overnight hours Sunday. Areas that have
already received heavy rainfall from Friday morning and
afternoons storms should be closely monitored for potential
flash flooding during this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

A period of cooler and drier air will follow the exiting cold
front early Monday. However, the chances for rain return by
midweek with the next frontal system. Temperatures will return
to a more seasonable level during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Friday...

Low confidence aviation forecast given the decaying convection
over southern West Virginia and new convection firing across the
northern terminals. Nature of it is scattered, and the life
cycles of storms that form have been relatively short over the
last hour, so this makes the prevailing conditions tricky.
Storms are out there and near terminals, and have done my best
to get the sites that could see TSRA into TEMPOs over the next
few hours.

Expecting partial clearing tonight with lingering mid to high
level clouds in place, but with rain, added fog to the mix.
There could be many factors in play here that could thwart that
potential however, which adds to the lower than normal
confidence for this issuance. As with any thunderstorm type
activity, the mesoscale activity is going to be changing the
larger scale environment for tonight.

For the ongoing storms, some AMD may be necessary.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments likely for changing environments
from thunderstorm/rain passage.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Isolated IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday with afternoon timeframe most likely occurrence.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
330 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>028-030>034-
039-040-515>526-201930-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Lewis-
Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
330 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southeast West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-016>020-029-201930-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-
Gilmer-
330 PM EDT Fri May 19 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 247 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
555 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

OHZ066-192230-
Perry-
555 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY...

At 554 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Hebron, or near
Heath, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Perry State Forest, Thornport, Harbor Hills, Crooksville,
Thornville and Glenford.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3993 8242 3992 8241 3991 8217 3982 8217
      3981 8207 3971 8210 3978 8240 3983 8240
      3984 8247 3993 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 281DEG 22KT 3997 8248

17

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
715 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW LEXINGTON           39.71N  82.21W
05/19/2017                   PERRY              OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN IN TOWN OF JUNCTION CITY BLOCKING ROADWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1700418

SL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
715 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

OHZ067-075-076-192345-
Washington-Athens-Morgan-
715 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...MORGAN AND NORTHERN ATHENS COUNTIES...

At 714 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles north of McConnelsville to near
Glouster. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Glouster, McConnelsville, Beverly, Chesterhill,
Williamstown, Malta, Lowell, Stockport, Jacksonville, Trimble,
Bristol, Macksburg, Amesville, Lower Salem, Burr Oak State Park,
Hackney, Fleming, Bartlett and Devola.

This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 2 and 17.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3975 8164 3967 8164 3966 8159 3959 8159
      3958 8148 3965 8147 3965 8145 3963 8145
      3963 8142 3960 8139 3959 8130 3941 8144
      3940 8147 3936 8154 3943 8218 3955 8207
      3955 8204 3959 8204 3976 8188
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 280DEG 37KT 3974 8180 3948 8203

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW LEXINGTON           39.71N  82.21W
05/19/2017                   PERRY              OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROADWAY IN SHAWNEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1700419

SL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
743 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

KYZ101>103-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>008-014-200015-
Boyd-Greenup-Carter-Gallia-Lawrence-Jackson-Mason-Wayne-Cabell-
Putnam-
743 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOYD...SOUTHERN
GREENUP...CARTER...GALLIA...LAWRENCE...MASON...CABELL...NORTHWESTERN
PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN WAYNE AND WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 743 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Rio Grande to near Ironton to near Head
of Grassy. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Huntington, Ashland, Ironton, Point Pleasant, Grayson, Gallipolis,
Coal Grove, Olive Hill, Rio Grande, Chesapeake, Proctorville,
Cannonsburg, Lake Vesuvius, Carter Caves State Park, Barboursville,
Kenova, Milton, Catlettsburg, Ceredo and Buffalo.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 64 in Kentucky between mile markers 155 and 191.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 1 and 26.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3834 8323 3843 8323 3845 8321 3854 8278
      3893 8236 3881 8174 3837 8222 3822 8298
      3833 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 290DEG 33KT 3886 8238 3853 8274 3841 8332

17