Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
216 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
more widespread storms late tonight as a cold front crosses the
region. Front lifts back north late Friday night/Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

Surface boundary with associated surface trough acting as a
trigger for some convective development this afternoon with a
thin line of thunderstorms extending from just south of KPKB to
KBLF. Also still seeing some isold redevelopment in eastern KY.
Will keep at least isold POPs through this evening with higher
values to the east. Front approaches from the west tracking
through from the 06Z-12Z timeframe. Have not strayed far from
inherited forecast in terms of timing the line that will be
associated with front as it moves through. For temps...went
with model blend with generous nod toward inherited forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

The cold front will moves south southeast taking all pcpn to the
eastern mountains and extreme southern coalfields of WV by Friday
12Z. Kept likely PoPs over the northwest slopes and eastern mountain
per slower ECMWF model Friday morning. The front stalls south of the
area and then returns north as a warm front to bring unstable
conditions and showers or storms through the weekend.

A sfc low pressure system then moves from west to east along KY and
VA to enhance lifting over southern WV Sunday. With available low
level moisture, pwats around 1.4 inches showers and storms will be
possible mainly across extreme southern WV and extreme
southwest VA into early Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

Drier and cool air filters from the north northeast to bring
pleasant conditions by the end of the weekend.

Shortwave trough aloft lifts northeastward into the Great Lakes
Tuesday night, so the rain from that system should stay north. Broad
upper level trough sets up over the intermountain west, with a new
baroclinic zone developing northwest of our CWA. Should stay dry
until a surface low departs from the southern plains, while we get
back into a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

Tracking fairly solid line of convection through central WV
which should clear forecast area by around 22Z. Seeing up to
30KT gusts, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with brief
IFR with this feature. In wake of line expect isold pop-up
convection to continue for the remainder of the afternoon.

Front and another round of associated convection will make its
way through aft 06z. Will see return MVFR and brief IFR
conditions arriving into the Ohio Valley aft 04Z. The storms
will weaken as they head east early Friday morning. In wake of
the feature broadbrushed IFR stratus for the early morning
hours.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR and maybe IFR could occur with
rain showers or possibly thunderstorms this afternoon and
overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible Saturday into Sunday with another wave of low
pressure.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...KMC/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KMC/MPK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
837 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033-034-
515>520-211245-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-McDowell-
Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
837 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is the possibility for prolong periods of rain and flooding
through this weekend. A flood watch may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-211245-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
837 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal threat for severe thunderstorms across portions
of southeast OH through tonight. The main threat will be damaging
winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ007>011-016>020-028>032-039-040-521>526-211245-
Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
837 AM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
212 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

WVZ515-516-518-520-201845-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Southeast
Fayette-
212 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL NICHOLAS...
NORTHEASTERN RALEIGH AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 211 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stanaford, or
near Beckley, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beckley, Rainelle, Bradley, Shady Spring, Prosperity, Beaver,
Daniels, Piney View, Stanaford, Macarthur and Meadow Bridge.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 34 and 36, and between
mile markers 46 and 48.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 122 and 137.

LAT...LON 3785 8124 3816 8065 3813 8063 3809 8069
      3808 8072 3809 8078 3804 8083 3803 8082
      3802 8080 3800 8079 3798 8077 3795 8081
      3787 8075 3787 8081 3782 8094 3781 8092
      3777 8090 3768 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 239DEG 37KT 3780 8112

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
214 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

WVZ016-018>020-028-029-201845-
Calhoun-Doddridge-Roane-Ritchie-Gilmer-Braxton-
214 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN
RITCHIE...SOUTH CENTRAL DODDRIDGE...GILMER...NORTH CENTRAL BRAXTON
AND NORTHEASTERN ROANE COUNTIES...

At 214 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Arnoldsburg, or
7 miles east of Spencer, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glenville, Grantsville, Arnoldsburg, Cedar Creek State Park,
Burnsville, Sand Fork, Auburn, Shock, Millstone, Baldwin, Stouts
Mills, Mount Zion, Troy, Newberne, Orma, Coxs Mills, Linn, Big
Springs, Stumptown and Tanner.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 79 and 82.

LAT...LON 3903 8072 3901 8072 3898 8068 3887 8061
      3866 8121 3889 8137 3891 8128 3894 8127
      3917 8081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 239DEG 37KT 3884 8121

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
216 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

WVZ016-018-027-028-519-521-201900-
Calhoun-Clay-Roane-Northwest Webster-Northwest Nicholas-Braxton-
216 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...NORTH
CENTRAL NICHOLAS...SOUTHERN BRAXTON...SOUTHEASTERN ROANE...WEST
CENTRAL WEBSTER AND CLAY COUNTIES...

At 215 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Clay, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sutton, Clay, Gassaway, Birch River, Big Otter, Wallback, Amma,
Harrison, Widen, Nebo, Frametown, Strange Creek, Wilsie, Bickmore,
Procious, Servia, Indore, Exchange, Little Birch and Ivydale.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 26 and 66.

LAT...LON 3833 8117 3850 8124 3853 8120 3853 8125
      3857 8127 3881 8076 3854 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 239DEG 37KT 3850 8111

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

WVZ027-517-519>523-201930-
Southeast Webster-Southeast Nicholas-Clay-Northwest
Pocahontas-Northwest Webster-Northwest Nicholas-Northwest Fayette-
241 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN POCAHONTAS...NICHOLAS...
WEBSTER...SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND NORTH CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 240 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles west of
Summersville, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Summersville, Webster Springs, Addison (Webster Springs),
Camden-On-gauley, Craigsville, Camden On Gauley, Cowen, Canvas,
Muddlety, Upper Glade, Boggs, Calvin, Kesslers Cross Lanes, Drennan,
Bergoo, Mount Nebo and Erbacon.

LAT...LON 3833 8020 3815 8107 3833 8117 3861 8033
      3841 8024 3839 8024 3840 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 248DEG 26KT 3827 8101

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
249 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

WVZ028>030-039-201915-
Upshur-Lewis-Gilmer-Braxton-
249 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GILMER...CENTRAL
LEWIS...NORTHEASTERN BRAXTON AND WEST CENTRAL UPSHUR COUNTIES...

At 248 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cedar Creek
State Park, or near Glenville, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Weston, Glenville, Stonewall Jackson, Cedar Creek State Park,
Burnsville, Sand Fork, Baldwin, Stouts Mills, Sand Run, Exchange,
Heaters, Walkersville, Ireland, Cedarville, Horner and Falls Mills.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 71 and 101.

LAT...LON 3872 8088 3892 8096 3907 8037 3879 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 258DEG 29KT 3887 8082

21