Alert archive / Ohio / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

February 24, 2017Perry County, Ohio

NWS Charleston, WV issued this special weather statement at Feb 24, 2017, 11:03 PM EST for Perry County, Ohio. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 24, 2017, 11:03 PM EST (04:03 UTC)
Expired
Feb 24, 2017, 11:30 PM EST
In force
27 min
Issued by
NWS Charleston, WV

County Perry County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 132 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2017-02-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 416 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2017-02-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 110 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
416 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1770 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
110 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Feb 24, 10:18 PM EST, 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 24, 10:18 PM EST, 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1018 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses pre- and post- dawn Saturday
morning, followed by cooler weather for the weekend. A couple
systems next week with precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1010 PM Friday...

Prefrontal line of strong storms poised to cross into our
southeast Ohio counties in the next 1 to 2 hours. Much of the
activity over the last few hours has been strong to only
marginally severe. The prospects for severe wx thankfully appear
to be waning overnight with southeast Ohio standing the best
chance for some damaging wind gusts in bowing segments within
the line.

As of 645 PM Friday...

See latest PNS/RER for info today's records, February all time
records, and all time record meteorological winter highs.

Forecast generally in good shape. I tweaked hourly pops using
latest HRRR as an aid. There is still a concern for locally
damaging wind gusts after midnight across southeast Ohio,
northeast Kentucky and western West Virginia. The mid level
capping currently in place will erode overnight with the
approach of the front. With steepening low level lapse rates
along with the low dewpoint spreads in place...concern exist for
a congealing QLCS bringing down strong downdrafts.

As of 315 PM Friday...

After a record breaking warm afternoon and a dry, mild evening,
a strong cold front still appears on track to bring a line of
showers and thunderstorms through the area just ahead of it
overnight into Saturday morning. The main convective threat is
wind damage as super cells that form upstream evolve into a fast
moving squall line, but the hail and even tornado threat could
not be entirely ruled out if the low level shear can give rise
to sufficient mesoscale organization.

Dry slot behind the cold front will bring a quick end to the
showers and thunderstorms from west to east on Saturday, but
wrap around precipitation will then spread into northern
portions of the area later Saturday afternoon. These rain
showers will start turning over to snow showers late, as much
colder air advects in.

Used a blend of primarily near term sources for hourly
temperatures in the warm air ahead of the front tonight, and in
the cold advection behind the front on Saturday. Lows tonight
will be close to or equal to highs Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...

Cold air advection on W/NW flow will bring the chance for
upslope snow showers across the mountains through early Sunday
morning. Moisture is limited so accumulations will be very light
with generally less than an inch. High pressure builds over the
area on Sunday and although we remain dry it will be cool
relatively speaking. High pressure should hold through most of
the day Monday, however a southern stream system will approach
Monday evening and showers enter SW West Virginia by 00Z
Tuesday out ahead of a warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 PM Friday...

Zonal flow aloft will make for a progressive and active
pattern next week. Our first system brings showers Monday night
into Tuesday. The next system will arrive mid week as low
pressure tracking across the Great Lakes drag a cold front
through the region. Behind this colder air arrives again on NW
flow and this will bring a chance for snow showers across the
mountains towards the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 PM Friday...

A strong cold front will impact the area overnight tonight into
early Saturday morning. A line of strong showers and
thunderstorms just ahead of the cold front is timed to reach HTS
near 08Z, PKB 09Z, CRW 10Z, CKB,EKN, and BKW around 11Z.
Inserted tempo groups for HTS/PKB where 9 hour policy allows for
IFR TSRA with wind gusts to 40 kts. I covered the remainder of
the sites with 1 to 2 hour prevailing conditions of IFR gusty
showers. Some of the winds may approach severe limits across
HTS/PKB/CRW.

Conditions will improve to VFR across the lowlands Saturday, as
dry air and a rising frontal inversion increases mixing heights
to about 5-6 kft.

South to southwest surface flow will be gusty at times ahead of
the cold front, shifting to west and remaining gusty behind the
cold front early Saturday morning. Moderate south to southwest
flow aloft ahead of the cold front into tonight will become
moderate west behind the cold front on Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need to add TSRA to prevailing for
remainder taf sites. Gusty winds will tend to vary, especially
with the convection and the passage of the cold front overnight
tonight into Saturday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 02/25/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...30
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 24, 3:46 PM EST, 7 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
346 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>031-033-034-515>520-252100-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
346 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia, southern West
Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late tonight through
early Saturday morning.  Damaging winds will be the biggest threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ032-039-040-521>526-252100-
Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
346 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 24, 11:03 PM EST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1103 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017

OHZ066-250430-
Perry-
1103 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PERRY
COUNTY...

At 1102 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Hebron to near Millersport to near
Lancaster. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

Winds 45 to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Harbor Hills, Thornville and Glenford.

LAT...LON 3993 8242 3992 8241 3991 8217 3982 8217
      3982 8214 3972 8237 3974 8237 3974 8241
      3983 8240 3984 8247 3992 8247 3993 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 230DEG 53KT 4001 8249 3988 8250 3973 8255

30

The office that day

Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 25, 1:04 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRLXCabell, Mason25 min
Feb 25, 2:26 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXMason34 min
Feb 25, 2:37 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXCabell, Lincoln, Wayne23 min
Feb 25, 2:54 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXBoone36 min
Feb 25, 3:00 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXCabell, Jackson, Lincoln, Mason, Putnam30 min
Feb 25, 5:39 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXMcDowell, Wyoming36 min
Feb 25, 6:13 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXRaleigh32 min
Feb 25, 6:41 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXNicholas, Webster34 min
Feb 25, 7:18 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXPocahontas27 min
Feb 25, 7:44 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXPocahontas31 min
Feb 24, 11:59 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXVinton31 min
Feb 25, 12:15 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXJackson30 min
Feb 25, 12:25 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXVinton35 min
Feb 25, 12:43 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRLXLawrence32 min
Feb 24, 11:32 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXGreenup43 min
Feb 25, 12:30 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXBoyd, Carter30 min
Feb 25, 5:09 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRLXBuchanan, Dickenson36 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Ohio, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.