Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Charleston, WV

330 
WWUS51 KRLX 102109
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
509 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

OHC009-127-102145-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-170710T2145Z/
Perry OH-Athens OH-
509 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN PERRY AND NORTHWESTERN ATHENS COUNTIES...

At 508 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Shawnee, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. This storm is also exhibiting radar based 
         rotation.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Nelsonville, New Lexington, Shawnee, New Straitsville, Corning,
Buchtel, Murray City, Hemlock and Rendville.

# 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

You may also report severe weather by posting your report to the
Charleston West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or
by using the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 8203 3939 8215 3945 8229 3947 8228
      3947 8217 3955 8216 3956 8226 3959 8226
      3960 8238 3965 8237 3966 8228 3973 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 290DEG 25KT 3959 8224 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
341 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weather remains unsettled due to a series of short waves and
frontal boundary across the region. Very warm mid week with a cold
front in the vicinity late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Last of the showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east
across the northeast portion of WV this afternoon and exit the
area late this afternoon. A frontal boundary north of the area
will drop southward overnight and stall over the CWA on Tuesday.
SPC has the northern half of the CWA in a marginal risk. With
plenty of low level moisture in place and the expected short
wave trof to move along that boundary, expect scattered showers
thunderstorms to develop in the daytime heating. Shear will be
weak and any organized development will be brief with some hail
and possibly some damaging wind gusts. Temps will stay on the
warm side tonight and tomorrow. Some areas in the lowlands may
top out in the low 90s by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Monday...

As upper level ridging builds to our south, upper flow is
expected to remain zonal. Lobes of energy advecting eastward in
the mean zonal flow will enhance chances for showers and storms,
primarily across central/northern counties through the short
term. Additionally, afternoon temperatures will climb into the
90s for most locations with 80s in the mountains. Increased
moisture will combine with warm temperatures to produce heat
index values in the mid to upper 90s across the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 340 PM Monday...

Still eyeing a cold front that will approach the area by late
week. Current model guidance doesn't have the front crossing
until Friday, which would allow sufficient moisture return and
heating such that thunderstorms will be likely. It's difficult
to assess the magnitude of potential strong/severe storm threat
owing to lower-than-average model agreement and confidence.
Additionally, the phasing of wind dynamics and moisture may or
may not be favorable to support more robust convection. Still
expecting an unsettled pattern through the period with
additional thunder chances into at least the back half of the
weekend.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler than mid week owing to
increased cloud cover and periods of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

A short wave over NE WW will continue to move east and exit the
region late this afternoon and early this evening. Brief
periods of MVFR conditions in cigs and vsbys in showers will
exit as well. VFR conditions will prevail through the early
morning hours on Tuesday. Increase in clouds will occur as a
frontal boundary drifts southward and stalls over the region on
Tuesday. Expect shwrs/tstms to develop along that boundary
during the afternoon hours on Tuesday with daytime heating.
Possible MVFR/IFR conditions in those shwrs/tstms. Expect winds
to generally be out of the SSW this evening and turning to the
SW 5-10kts on Tuesday with higher gusts 15-20kts in
shwrs/tstms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms
development on Tuesday may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms into
midweek.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/DTC
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...DTC
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...JS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
321 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-110730-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
321 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.