Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Charleston, WV

554 
WWUS51 KRLX 112110
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
510 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

OHC053-WVC053-112130-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170411T2130Z/
Gallia OH-Mason WV-
510 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL GALLIA AND NORTHERN MASON COUNTIES...

At 510 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Gallipolis,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Point Pleasant, Gallipolis, Racine, New Haven, Mason, Syracuse,
Hartford City, Henderson, Cheshire, Lakin and Letart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

You may also report severe weather by posting your report to the
Charleston West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or
by using the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 8230 3898 8210 3896 8210 3898 8208
      3899 8205 3901 8204 3903 8200 3899 8198
      3900 8195 3899 8193 3894 8190 3889 8193
      3882 8187 3879 8224
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 246DEG 31KT 3883 8221 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kistner

631 
WWUS51 KRLX 112124
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
524 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

OHC053-112132-
/O.CAN.KRLX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170411T2130Z/
Gallia OH-
524 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GALLIA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened and 
moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled.

LAT...LON 3899 8198 3900 8195 3899 8193 3894 8190
      3890 8193 3887 8191 3883 8213 3884 8215
      3890 8214 3893 8211 3896 8210 3898 8208
      3899 8205 3901 8204 3903 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 246DEG 31KT 3888 8208 

$$

WVC053-112130-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170411T2130Z/
Mason WV-
524 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTY...

At 522 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Point Pleasant,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts is possible. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Point Pleasant, Racine, New Haven, Mason, Syracuse, Hartford City,
Henderson, Lakin and Letart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

You may also report severe weather by posting your report to the
Charleston West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or
by using the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3899 8198 3900 8195 3899 8193 3894 8190
      3890 8193 3887 8191 3883 8213 3884 8215
      3890 8214 3893 8211 3896 8210 3898 8208
      3899 8205 3901 8204 3903 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 246DEG 31KT 3888 8208 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kistner

407 
WWUS51 KRLX 112126
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
526 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

WVC053-112136-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170411T2130Z/
Mason WV-
526 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 530 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3899 8198 3900 8195 3899 8193 3894 8190
      3890 8193 3887 8191 3883 8213 3884 8215
      3890 8214 3893 8211 3896 8210 3898 8208
      3899 8205 3901 8204 3903 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 246DEG 31KT 3889 8205 

$$

Kistner

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
303 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly crosses the area tonight. High pressure
builds in Wednesday, remaining Thursday. Warm front lifts
through Friday into Saturday. Cold front Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

Models in agreement on a prefrontal surface trough moving east
across the area this later afternoon and evening, accompanied
by an organized band of showers. Model soundings indicate enough
instability for a thunderstorm along and just ahead of the
trough, but nothing strong to severe is expected. Behind this
through follows the real cold front, weak as it is, that will
cross the area overnight. Thus at least scattered showers will
continue until passage of the front. Models now target two areas
that receive the greatest QPF. One is across southeast Ohio
early with one wave moving up along the front. The second is
across southeastern WV and southwest VA tonight with a second
wave. This second wave will then accelerate the front through by
morning. Thus on Wednesday, high pressure will build in with
dry weather quickly establishing itself and with increasing
sunshine. Thus temperatures Wednesday will only be slightly
cooler than today, but it will be dry again with northwest
winds.

As of 430 AM Tuesday...

The main feature this period will be a slow moving cold front
progged to cross through the day into Wednesday morning. Model
guidance demonstrates consistency in timing this feature, with
initial precip entering far northwestern counties around 11/10Z.
Still some questions regarding areal coverage, but kept likely PoPs
in with the highest confidence coming after 12/00Z, mainly along
and east of the Ohio River. There should also be modest
instability, with CAPE values between 500-800 J/kg, and around
40-45 kts deep layer shear, and this will allow chance thunder
as the front crosses. By the end of the period, rain will have
cleared most areas outside the mountains with perhaps a
lingering shower or two left over going into the short term.

Used a blend of hi-res and global model guidance to fine tune precip
timing and coverage with more preference on LAMP guidance for temps.
Efficient radiational cooling in the mountains have allowed temps to
drop quickly with slightly less cooling farther west. Increasing
cloud cover today will limit heating, so kept highs just shy of 80 F
in the lowlands with upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere, but still
above guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 232 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather expected into Thursday night. Relative humidity levels
drop into the mid to upper 20 percents Thursday afternoon, but winds
are not expected to be very strong. The GFS does show some showers
popping along the Appalachian ridge Thursday afternoon, but think
moisture will be too limited -- despite the elevated heat source
enhancement -- so kept POPs dry for now. Moisture does start picking
up Thursday night, with some showers and thunderstorms expected
Friday with a weak warm front slowly lifting through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 233 PM Tuesday...

Warm front from the short term continues to lift through for the
beginning of the long term. Have showers and thunderstorms,
especially across the northern half of the CWA Saturday with
southerly flow cranking up. A cold front will push through Sunday,
with likely POPs taking the form of showers and thunderstorms. Have
some POPs lingering across the east into Monday before drying out
Monday night into Tuesday. Stuck fairly close to the consensus blend
through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z Tuesday thru 18Z Wednesday...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Prefrontal surface trough moves east across the area this
afternoon afternoon and evening, followed by the cold front
tonight. Cold front exits the mountains by around 10Z
Wednesday. Band of showers and thunderstorms with the prefrontal
trough spreading eastward across the area later this afternoon
and evening, with lingering rain showers behind the surface
trough until the cold front passes tonight. Southwest winds 7 to
14 MPH ahead of the cold front, becoming west northwest 5 to 10
MPH behind the cold front tonight, and northwest 7 to 12 MPh
Wednesday.

SCT-BKN 4000-6000 feet AGL ahead of the band of convection this
afternoon, but with occasional MVFR in the showers, continuing
until the cold front passes. With passage of the cold front,
rain mostly ends, and look for general MVFR ceilings low lands;
with IFR ceilings in the mountains including BKW and EKN.
Conditions improve to VFR SCT clouds from west to east beginning
around 09Z, reaching the mountains by 17Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for timing of convection, Low to
medium for development and timing of MVFR/IFR tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areal coverage of TSRA and SHRA could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

IFR possible in mountains Wednesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1140 AM Tuesday...

Fire weather concerns will be mitigated by increasing low level
moisture and the onset of rain across portions of the area
tonight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/DTC
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV/DTC
FIRE WEATHER...JMV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1244 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-121645-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1244 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West Virginia,
northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia, southeast West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
429 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

OHZ075-084-085-112115-
Athens-Meigs-Vinton-
429 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MEIGS...ATHENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN VINTON COUNTIES...

At 428 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Albany, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Albany, Coolville, Tuppers Plains, Amesville, Wilkesville,
Dyesville, Darwin, Harrisonville, Stroud Run State Park, Dexter and
Carpenter.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
ponding on roadways. Slow down when traveling through heavy
downpours.

LAT...LON 3945 8185 3932 8185 3932 8184 3930 8182
      3927 8182 3927 8172 3923 8172 3919 8174
      3917 8177 3904 8235 3923 8239 3945 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 250DEG 38KT 3913 8225

Kistner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
456 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

OHZ086-WVZ007-112130-
Gallia-Mason-
456 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL GALLIA AND NORTHERN
MASON COUNTIES...

At 456 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Rio
Grande, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Point Pleasant, Gallipolis, Racine, New Haven, Mason, Syracuse,
Hartford City, Henderson, Cheshire, Adamsville, Lakin, Gallopolis
Ferry, Gage and Letart.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3884 8242 3898 8210 3896 8210 3898 8208
      3899 8205 3901 8204 3903 8200 3899 8198
      3900 8195 3899 8193 3894 8190 3893 8190
      3889 8193 3882 8187 3873 8238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 246DEG 31KT 3878 8234

Kistner