Freeze Warning 2, NWS Charleston, WV

941 
WWUS71 KRLX 112352
NPWRLX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
652 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...Another Hard Freeze Expected Tonight...

Temperatures in the low to mid 20s will create hard freeze
conditions across Northeast Kentucky overnight. Many fruit trees
and strawberry crops are already vulnerable to sub freezing
temperatures due to the unusually warm February.

KYZ101>103-105-120800-
/O.CON.KRLX.FZ.W.0002.170312T0200Z-170312T1700Z/
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
Including the cities of Flatwoods, Greenup, Grayson, Olive Hill, 
Ashland, and Louisa
652 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* Temperatures...In the low to mid 20s.

* Timing...Tonight and Sunday morning.

* Impacts...Significant crop damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

TRM

958 
WWUS71 KRLX 120715
NPWRLX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
315 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...Another Hard Freeze Expected Tonight...

Temperatures in the low to mid 20s will create hard freeze
conditions across Northeast Kentucky overnight. Many fruit trees
and strawberry crops are already vulnerable to sub freezing
temperatures due to the unusually warm February.

KYZ101>103-105-121515-
/O.CON.KRLX.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170312T1700Z/
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
Including the cities of Flatwoods, Greenup, Grayson, Olive Hill, 
Ashland, and Louisa
315 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* Temperatures...In the mid 20s.

* Timing...Tonight and Sunday morning.

* Impacts...Significant crop damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

869 
WWUS71 KRLX 121515
NPWRLX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1115 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

KYZ101>103-105-121615-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170312T1700Z/
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
Including the cities of Flatwoods, Greenup, Grayson, Olive Hill, 
Ashland, and Louisa
1115 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Charleston has cancelled the
Freeze Warning.

Temperatures at most locations across Northeast Kentucky have
risen above freezing. 

A marginal freeze is expected tonight and again Monday night, but
in coordination with the Kentucky Ag Center an additional freeze 
warning will not be issued for marginal freezes at this time. 

Additional hard freezes are expected mid week, which will be 
detrimental to fruit crops, and will likely require additional 
freeze warnings.

$$

Zwier

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
816 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with chilly arctic air today into Sunday. Brief
warm up Monday before strong coastal low brings more cold and
snow to the region. High pressure for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 815 AM Saturday...

Its still very cold, but temperatures are warming across the
northern mountains this morning and wind chill values have risen
above advisory criteria, thus allowed advisory to expire. Also
tweaked hourly temps and winds based on current obs and hi-res
model trends.

As of 300 AM Saturday...

A ridge of high pressure at the sfc extends from central Canada,
southeast into the central plains, and east across the OH
valley and WV through the weekend. A cold Arctic air accompany
this feature allowing temperatures to stay close or below
freezing during the afternoon, and into the 20s lowlands and
single digits higher elevations tonight. Skies will be mostly
clear with some high level clouds passing through.

Moderate gusty winds and temperatures in the single digits
produced dangerous wind chills early this morning. Went with the
blend of models for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Low pressure tracks well to our south on Sunday with high
pressure building over the region. Even with mostly sunny skies,
the temps will remain well below normal. Another cold night is
expected as well with mostly lows down in the 20s. Sky cover may
increase enough by early Monday morning to keep temps from
really bottoming out.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

...Major winter storm possible Monday night through Tuesday...

...Well below average temps until the end of the week....

The consensus of the models continue to highlight a major winter
storm moving up the East Coast through the first half of the
work week. Confidence is quite high that low pressure will form
somewhere near the Carolinas Monday and track northward along
the coast through Tuesday night. However, there is still
uncertainty on the exact track and intensity of this system.
Although the probability of heavy snow across the Northeast
Mountains of West Virginia is growing, the exact track and
intensity of the low will determine how much snowfall we will
see.

We will have a brief warmup during the day Monday as a warm
front crosses through. However, the warm air does not hang
around long as intensifying coastal low tracks up the East
Coast. How quickly this system phases and wraps up will
determine the timing of the cold air Monday night. Current
thinking is that with the current forecast mean track between
ensemble and operational model guidance, we should transition
from rain to snow late Monday night even across the Lowlands,
with all snow likely at higher elevations. The heaviest snow
would fall before midday Tuesday, but strong CAA combined with
wraparound moisture and another shortwave diving south
amplifying upper trough, will keep threat for snow through
Wednesday.

Still a few days for the models to sort out the finer details.
However, based on current model consensus, there is enough
confidence to at least mention the possibility for heavy snow
across our Northeast zones and the mountains in the HWO.

High pressure finally builds in towards the end of the week and
we may even see our temps climb back to near average values by
the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...

Satellite images show upper level clouds crossing the area from
west to east. Otherwise, a high pressure will provide mostly
clear. Expect widespread VFR conditions through the period.

Winds will become light west to northwest today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will tend to vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EST 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Low chance of IFR across the south in snow Saturday night. IFR
possible in snow area wide Monday night through Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
812 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

KYZ101>103-105-121315-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-
812 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ027-028-030>032-039-040-515>526-121315-
Clay-Braxton-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
812 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Confidence continues to grow that a major winter storm will track up
the East Coast Monday Night through Tuesday. The potential exists
for a heavy snowfall and accumulations will depend on the exact track
and intensity of this system. A Winter Storm Watch will likely be
needed if current forecast remains on track.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>026-029-
033-034-121315-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-
Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-
Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Gilmer-McDowell-Wyoming-
812 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Ohio, southwest
Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.