Special Weather Statement, NWS Riverton, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1259 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Most of the southwest will remain dry and windy tonight with colder
temperatures moving in as a cold front moves through.  To the north
over and near the mountains, as a rather strong and cold upper level
low pressure trough moves across the area through this evening,
thunderstorms with hail, heavy rain and strong wind gusts will move
through the area. Mostly showers with some snow down to 7500 feet is
expected after midnight through early morning with colder air.
Friday will be colder with some showers and isolated thunderstorms
lingering over the area.  Drying and warming will occur through the
weekend with high pressure building over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Big picture shows our mean summer sern U.S. ridge building and
expanding northwest towards the middle of next week. Threat of some
very warm to hot weather will be in the forecast with this pattern.
The only thing that could temper it somewhat is the potential for
the ring of fire to get started by Tuesday (GFS) or Wednesday (Euro)
to get some clouds and mainly late day showers/tstms going. Rather
significant differences on where our high will set up between the
GFS and ECMWF. ECMWF is further east fitting the GFS 5-wave pattern
while the GFS builds the high nwd all the way into srn Wyoming
Wednesday and Thursday. Leaning more towards a Euro type solution
which fits the bigger picture longwave pattern. At the beginning of
this period, a ewd moving shortwave is moving east across the area
with some gusty showers and thunderstorms into Sunday night. GFS is
much slower with this system lingering the trough into Monday. After
that all the guidance generally agrees that the ridge will build nwd
into our area Tuesday with considerable warming with h7 temps
warming in the GFS and ECMWF into the 15 to 19C range across much of
the area. That would push temps into the 90s east of the divide
(upper 90s in the Bighorn Basin) and mainly 80s west of the divide
with 60s and 70s in the mountains and little chances of pcpn. On
Wednesday, we expect the upper ridge to start moving/developing ewd
with a hot, sw flow over our area. Models showing just minimal mid
level moisture moving n around the upper high leading in a few high
based late day thunderstorms, mainly over and near the mountains
Wednesday and Thursday. However, the GFS keeps the high centered
over and just south of us (so does the GEM) while the Euro is much
further east. As of now, the end result still looks hot with minimal
thunderstorm chances. At least 90s east of the divide (maybe some
100+ in the Bighorn Basin) with 80s west of the divide. It is July
in a couple days!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact the
northern and central sections through this evening before tapering
off and ending late. It will be quite windy as a cold front moves
south across the area enhanced by the convection. There could also
be brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in any convection. The
convection is expected to end from northwest to southeast in the
evening with possibly some lingering activity across Johnson/Natrona
Counties after 06Z. Winds are expected to decrease, and become
variable in most areas east of the Divide between 02Z and 06Z. Also
low freezing levels could be an issue with icing for aviation going
over the mountains. Friday will be dry with vfr conds.

Across southwest Wyoming, a drier airmass will be present with
little or no convection expected along and southwest of KBPI-40NE
RKS. However breezy westerly winds will be observed. A cold front is
expected to slide southwest/west across Sweetwater County during the
evening shifting winds to northeast/east, but remaining dry. Friday
will be dry with vfr conds and less wind.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 100 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Most of the southwest will remain dry and windy tonight with colder
temperatures moving in as a cold front moves through.  To the north
over and near the mountains, as a rather strong and cold upper level
low pressure trough moves across the area through this evening,
thunderstorms with hail, heavy rain and strong wind gusts will move
through the area. Mostly showers with some snow down to 7500 feet is
expected after midnight through early morning with colder air.
Friday will be colder with some showers and isolated thunderstorms
lingering over the area.  Drying and warming will occur through the
weekend with high pressure building over the area.  Mixing heights
and transport winds will be favorable for very good to excellent
smoke dispersal in the afternoons and evening through the weekend.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Skrbac
AVIATION...Skrbac
FIRE WEATHER...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Riverton WY
245 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

WYZ001>020-022>030-301100-
Yellowstone National Park-Absaroka Mountains-Cody Foothills-
North Big Horn Basin-Southwest Big Horn Basin-
Southeast Big Horn Basin-Owl Creek and Bridger Mountains-
Bighorn Mountains West-Bighorn Mountains Southeast-
Northeast Johnson County-Southeast Johnson County-
Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains-Jackson Hole-
Wind River Mountains West-Wind River Mountains East-
Upper Wind River Basin-Wind River Basin-Lander Foothills-
Green Mountains and Rattlesnake Range-
Natrona County Lower Elevations-Casper Mountain-Star Valley-
Salt River and Wyoming Ranges-Upper Green River Basin Foothills-
Upper Green River Basin-South Lincoln County-
Rock Springs and Green River-Flaming Gorge-East Sweetwater County-
245 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Western and Central Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Today...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across
northern and central Wyoming. Some storms may be strong across
portions of central Wyoming, producing wind gusts in excess of 40
mph and small hail in the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Friday and Saturday...Isolated thunderstorms across extreme northwest.

Sunday and Sunday night...A slight chance of thunderstorms over
the region.

Monday through Wednesday...Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms mainly over and near the mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Please report wind damage or
gusts in excess of 50 mph and hail of penny size or larger.

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