Winter Storm Warning 12, NWS Reno, NV

978 
WWUS45 KREV 030353
WSWREV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
853 PM PDT Thu Nov 2 2017

CAZ072-NVZ002-031200-
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0012.171103T1800Z-171105T0600Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline, 
and Incline Village
853 PM PDT Thu Nov 2 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO
11 PM PDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions especially over the passes. Total snow 
  accumulations: Above 7000 feet 1 to 2 feet with locally higher 
  amounts. Between 6500 and 7000 feet 5 to 10 inches with up to 
  4 inches at lake level. Higher amounts are possible at lake 
  level if snow levels drop faster.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...11 AM Friday to 11 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times. Wind gusts up to 100 mph over the ridges 
  and 40 mph in the lower elevations with wave heights of 2 to 4 
  feet on Lake Tahoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid travel if possible, you could be stuck in your vehicle for
many hours. If you must travel, prepare for long delays and carry
an emergency kit with extra food, water and clothing. If you stay
home, have a backup plan in case of power outages. The latest
road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

CAZ071-031200-
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0020.171104T0000Z-171105T0000Z/
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties-
Including the cities of Portola and Susanville
853 PM PDT Thu Nov 2 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO
5 PM PDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches above 5500 feet, with 
  localized amounts up to 16 inches above 6000 feet including 
  Yuba Pass.

* WHERE...Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties.

* WHEN...5 PM Friday to 5 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Wind gusts up to 40 mph in the valleys and up to 70 mph 
  over ridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during
periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to
reach your destination. Leave extra space between vehicles since
it takes longer to stop on slick roadways. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

CAZ073-031200-
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0020.171104T1200Z-171105T1200Z/
Mono County-
Including the cities of Bridgeport and Mammoth Lakes
853 PM PDT Thu Nov 2 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM PDT
SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total 
  snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches west of Highway 395 above 
  7000 feet with up to 1 foot near the Sierra Crest. Near and 
  east of Highway 395 up to 2 inches of snow is expected.

* WHERE...Mono County.

* WHEN...5 AM Saturday to 4 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Wind gusts to 40 mph in the lower elevations with 
  Sierra ridge winds gusting to 100 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during
periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to
reach your destination. Leave extra space between vehicles since
it takes longer to stop on slick roadways. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/reno

256 
WWUS45 KREV 031000
WSWREV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
300 AM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

CAZ072-NVZ002-032300-
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0012.171103T1800Z-171105T0600Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline, 
and Incline Village
300 AM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions
  especially over the passes. Total snow accumulations: Above 7000
  feet 1 to 2 feet with localized higher amounts. Between 6500 
  and 7000 feet 5 to 10 inches with up to 4 inches at lake level. 
  Higher amounts are possible at lake level if snow levels drop 
  faster.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...11 AM Friday to 11 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times. Wind gusts up to 100 mph over the ridges 
  and 40 mph in the lower elevations with wave heights of 2 to 4 
  feet on Lake Tahoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid travel if possible, you could be stuck in your vehicle for
many hours. If you must travel, prepare for long delays and carry
an emergency kit with extra food, water and clothing. If you stay
home, have a backup plan in case of power outages. The latest
road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

CAZ071-032300-
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0020.171104T0000Z-171105T0000Z/
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties-
Including the cities of Portola and Susanville
300 AM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches above 5500 feet, with 
  localized amounts up to 16 inches above 6000 feet including 
  Yuba Pass.

* WHERE...Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties.

* WHEN...5 PM Friday to 5 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Wind gusts up to 40 mph in the valleys and up to 70 mph 
  over ridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during
periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to
reach your destination. Leave extra space between vehicles since
it takes longer to stop on slick roadways. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

CAZ073-032300-
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0020.171104T1200Z-171105T1200Z/
Mono County-
Including the cities of Bridgeport and Mammoth Lakes
300 AM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM PDT
SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total 
  snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches west of Highway 395 above 
  7000 feet with up to 1 foot near the Sierra Crest. Near and 
  east of Highway 395 up to 2 inches of snow is expected.

* WHERE...Mono County.

* WHEN...5 AM Saturday to 4 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Wind gusts to 40 mph in the lower elevations with 
  Sierra ridge winds gusting to 100 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during
periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to
reach your destination. Leave extra space between vehicles since
it takes longer to stop on slick roadways. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/reno

773 
WWUS45 KREV 032147
WSWREV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
247 PM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

CAZ072-NVZ002-041000-
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171105T0600Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline, 
and Incline Village
247 PM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel 
  conditions especially over the passes. Total snow 
  accumulations: Above 7000 feet 1 to 2 feet with localized 
  higher amounts. Between 6500 and 7000 feet 5 to 10 inches with 
  up to 4 inches at lake level. Higher amounts are possible at 
  lake level if snow levels drop faster.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...11 AM Friday to 11 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times. Wind gusts up to 100 mph over the ridges 
  and 40 mph in the lower elevations with wave heights of 2 to 4 
  feet on Lake Tahoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid travel if possible, you could be stuck in your vehicle for
many hours. If you must travel, prepare for long delays and carry
an emergency kit with extra food, water and clothing. If you stay
home, have a backup plan in case of power outages. The latest
road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

CAZ071-041000-
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0020.171104T0000Z-171105T0000Z/
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties-
Including the cities of Portola and Susanville
247 PM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches above 5500 feet, with 
  localized amounts up to 16 inches above 6000 feet including 
  Yuba Pass.

* WHERE...Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties.

* WHEN...5 PM Friday to 5 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Wind gusts up to 40 mph in the valleys and up to 70 mph 
  over ridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during
periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to
reach your destination. Leave extra space between vehicles since
it takes longer to stop on slick roadways. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

CAZ073-041000-
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0020.171104T1200Z-171105T1200Z/
Mono County-
Including the cities of Bridgeport and Mammoth Lakes
247 PM PDT Fri Nov 3 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM PDT
SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total 
  snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches west of Highway 395 above 
  7000 feet with up to 1 foot near the Sierra Crest. Near and 
  east of Highway 395 up to 2 inches of snow is expected.

* WHERE...Mono County.

* WHEN...5 AM Saturday to 4 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Wind gusts to 40 mph in the lower elevations with 
  Sierra ridge winds gusting to 100 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during
periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to
reach your destination. Leave extra space between vehicles since
it takes longer to stop on slick roadways. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/reno

139 
WWUS45 KREV 041005
WSWREV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
305 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

CAZ072-NVZ002-042300-
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171105T0600Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline, 
and Incline Village
305 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions
  especially over the passes. Total snow accumulations: Above 7000
  feet 1 to 2 feet with localized higher amounts. Between 6500 and
  7000 feet 5 to 10 inches with up to 4 inches at lake level. 

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...11 AM Friday to 11 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
  visibility at times. Wind gusts up to 100 mph over the ridges 
  and 40 mph in the lower elevations with wave heights of 2 to 4 
  feet on Lake Tahoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid travel if possible, you could be stuck in your vehicle for
many hours. If you must travel, prepare for long delays and carry
an emergency kit with extra food, water and clothing. If you stay
home, have a backup plan in case of power outages. The latest
road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

CAZ071-042300-
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-171105T0000Z/
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties-
Including the cities of Portola and Susanville
305 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches above 5500 feet, with 
  localized amounts up to 16 inches above 6000 feet including 
  Yuba Pass.

* WHERE...Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties.

* WHEN...5 PM Friday to 5 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Wind gusts up to 40 mph in the valleys and up to 70 mph 
  over ridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during
periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to
reach your destination. Leave extra space between vehicles since
it takes longer to stop on slick roadways. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

CAZ073-042300-
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0020.171104T1200Z-171105T1200Z/
Mono County-
Including the cities of Bridgeport and Mammoth Lakes
305 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total 
  snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches west of Highway 395 above 
  7000 feet with up to 1 foot near the Sierra Crest. Near and 
  east of Highway 395 up to 2 inches of snow is expected.

* WHERE...Mono County.

* WHEN...5 AM Saturday to 4 AM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Wind gusts to 40 mph in the lower elevations with 
  Sierra ridge winds gusting to 100 mph.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during
periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to
reach your destination. Leave extra space between vehicles since
it takes longer to stop on slick roadways. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/reno

177 
WWUS45 KREV 041725
WSWREV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
1025 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

CAZ073-041830-
/O.CAN.KREV.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-171105T1200Z/
Mono County-
1025 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The approaching cold front has weakened and snowfall amounts are 
no longer expected to reach advisory levels. A weak cold front 
will still slowly move south across Mono county this evening, 
bringing up to 3 inches of snow west of highway 395 by midnight 
and up to 6 inches near the Sierra crest.

$$

CAZ072-NVZ002-050530-
/O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171105T0600Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline, 
and Incline Village
1025 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Periods of moderate snow occurring. Difficult travel
  conditions over Sierra passes. Additional snow accumulations: 
  Above 7000 feet, 4 to 10 inches with localized higher amounts. 
  Between 6500 and 7000 feet, 2 to 6 inches with up to 2 inches at
  lake level.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...Now until 11 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times above 6500 feet. Wind gusts up to 80 mph
  over the ridges and 45 mph in the lower elevations, with wave 
  heights of 2 to 4 feet on Lake Tahoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid travel if possible, you could be stuck in your vehicle for
many hours. If you must travel, prepare for long delays and carry
an emergency kit with extra food, water and clothing. If you stay
home, have a backup plan in case of power outages. The latest
road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

CAZ071-050000-
/O.CON.KREV.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-171105T0000Z/
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties-
Including the cities of Portola and Susanville
1025 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow showers occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions
  in places. Additional snow accumulations up to 3 inches above 
  5500 feet, with localized amounts up to 8 inches above 6000 feet
  including Yuba Pass.

* WHERE...Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties.

* WHEN...Now until 5 PM Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times above 5500 feet. Wind gusts up to 35 mph in the valleys
  and up to 65 mph over ridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Even light snowfall causes major travel delays, especially during
periods of high traffic volume. Be sure to allow extra time to
reach your destination. Leave extra space between vehicles since
it takes longer to stop on slick roadways. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/reno

676 
WWUS45 KREV 042134
WSWREV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
234 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

CAZ072-NVZ002-042245-
/O.CAN.KREV.WS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-171105T0600Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
234 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The potential for heavy snow in the Tahoe Basin has ended.
Additional snow amounts up to 3 inches are possible above 6500 
feet with up to 6 inches near the Sierra crest. Roads may 
refreeze and become slick after sunset. Wave heights on Lake 
Tahoe will continue to be choppy through Sunday evening.

$$

CAZ071-042245-
/O.CAN.KREV.WW.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-171105T0000Z/
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties-
234 PM PDT Sat Nov 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The potential for heavy snow across northeast California has 
ended. Additional snow amounts up to 2 inches are locally 
possible above 5500 feet. Roads may refreeze and become slick 
after sunset.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/reno

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
310 AM PDT Thu Nov 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

An active pattern is expected to begin late tonight and continue
into early next week. Rain, mountain snow and gusty winds are
likely at times throughout the period. Impacts to travel are
anticipated, especially late Friday into Saturday in the Sierra
due to snow. Fewer impacts are expected in the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Overall message remains unchanged with winter storm impacting the
region this weekend. The details for certain variables are still
difficult to pin down, with forecaster confidence and challenges
outlined below. Otherwise, hazy conditions will persist across
portions of northeast California, the Tahoe Basin and into western
Nevada due to ongoing planned prescribed burns. Air quality will
improve this afternoon as wind speeds begin to increase.

Here is what we remain confident in:

- Winds will be gusty Friday into Saturday, but this is not looking
to be a major wind event. Generally expect south to southwest winds
gusting to around 40 mph, with wind prone locations possibly
reaching 50 mph. There may be some concern for high profile vehicles
and also turbulence and wind shear for aviation. In addition, lakes
will be choppy and hazardous for smaller watercraft.

- Rain and snow, with a 6-12 hour period of heavy precipitation
along a cold front, bringing difficult travel conditions in the
Sierra Friday and Saturday. High elevation snow may linger in
Alpine/Mono counties into Sunday morning. The northern and central
Sierra are likely to do best as far as totals, with the front and
moisture source weakening as the system dives south. Heavy snow with
accumulations of 1-2 feet looks likely above 7500 feet. Liquid
totals along the Sierra crest look to be around 2 inches from this
first system.

- Spillover looks promising along a cold front for western Nevada
with timing in better agreement for Saturday. The front is strong
along with decent instability and favorable flow aloft, so despite
forecast models trying to shadow the region, signs still all point
to spillover.

The challenges we are still dealing with:

- Snow levels, which will yield significantly different snow totals
for the 6000-7500 foot range. For example, around the Tahoe Basin on
the low end may only be 1-3", while on the higher end if snow levels
fall faster totals could reach 4-8".

- Plumas and western Lassen counties are also going to be tricky.
It's likely that places like Bogard, Fredonyer Pass, Yuba Pass, and
Cedar Pass will see accumulating snow, but once again the question
is how much. The cold air is chasing the moisture as it exits the
region, so the highest totals may just be limited to the mountainous
regions near and west of Highways 89 and 44.

- While previous model runs showed a significant moisture plume
moving into Mono County, the latest runs all agree on the moisture
tap cutting off earlier and the forcing from the front also being
weaker. This means significantly less precipitation than previously
thought in Mono County with liquid totals likely to be 0.5-1.0 inch
and snow totals in the higher elevations around 8-12 inches. While
places such as Conway and Deadman's Summits along Highway 395 may
see a few inches of accumulation, valleys below 6500 feet in Mono
County may only get rain.

Will keep the Winter Storm Warnings intact for northeast CA and the
northern and central Sierra. Feel that the Tahoe Basin will likely
need to be upgraded, while the slightly higher snow levels may only
result in localized areas receiving heavier snow in Plumas and
western Lassen counties. -Dawn

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

Models remain fairly consolidated for the secondary wave that moves
through the region Sunday into early Monday morning. A decent push
of reinforcing cold air will accompany the wave and is currently
projected to be coincident with the heaviest period of moisture. If
this forecast holds, another 1-4 inches of snow would be possible in
the Sierra. It's likely that some lake enhancement would occur on
the eastern side of Lake Tahoe, but it's a little too early to break
down additional totals. Snow levels should dip to around 5000 feet
allowing for light accumulations in the foothills. Wind fields are
fairly unidirectional and could support some convective banding
which may lead to higher totals in very localized areas.

Adjustments were modest from Monday night through Thursday
considering much lower than average forecaster confidence.
Deterministic ECMWF and GFS runs were highly polarized and nearly
180 degrees out of phase. GFS continues to favor deeper development
of low pressure off the southern California coast while the ECMWF
keeps this feature much weaker; overall, the GFS has a much more
amplified long wave pattern. Both do favor a more typical system
dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska with a strongly forced front
moving through the region Wednesday into Thursday however. The
GFS solution would bring another round of significant
precipitation into the Sierra as the colder system from the Gulf
of Alaska merges with the southern low. The EC solution would be
drier with fewer impacts as the two features remain unphased. As
such, we'll continue to watch successive runs before we "bite" on
either outcome. Boyd

&&

.AVIATION...

Clouds will be on the increase today along with breezy afternoon
winds ahead of the incoming system. South to southwest gusts may
reach 15-20 kts this afternoon, before further increasing for this
weekend. South to southwest winds Friday into Saturday are likely to
be sustained 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts for area terminals.
Across the Sierra, expect approximately 50-60 kts with gusts of 75-
90 kts, which is likely to lead to turbulence, mountain wave
activity, rotors, and periods of wind shear. Southerly winds at
KRNO are known to produce LLWS, and this is most likely Friday
into early Saturday.

Rain and snow, possibly heavy for a 12 or so hour window, are likely
at KTRK and KTVL Friday through Saturday, with light precipitation
possible for KMMH Saturday night. The reduced CIGS/VIS will also
make for widespread mountain obscuration. For western Nevada,
including KRNO and KCXP, rain is likely on Saturday with periods of
reduced CIGS/VIS.

A secondary wave may bring additional rain and snow Sunday night
into Monday morning, with snow levels low down to around 4500
feet. This means that a light dusting of snow is possible for
western NV terminals, though confidence is only around 40% of any
accumulation. For Sierra terminals, an additional 1-2 inches of
snow is possible.
-Dawn

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     evening NVZ002.

CA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     evening CAZ071.

     Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     evening CAZ072.

&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno