Lake Wind Advisory 55, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
238 AM PST Tue Nov 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Widespread freezing temperatures are occurring this morning with
hard freezes area-wide. After dry and cool conditions today, a
storm system will bring windy conditions Wednesday into Thursday
with chances for rain and high elevation snow in the Sierra.
Another, colder storm system may bring a period of windy
conditions with rain and Sierra snow late Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Temperatures are bottoming out this morning in the low/mid 20s
for western Nevada and mid/upper teens in the Sierra under clear
skies and calm winds. Otherwise, weather parameters will be rather
benign today as temperatures warm to the low/mid 50s area-wide.

After a dry and relatively pleasant day today, conditions become
gusty Wednesday and Thursday as a Pacific storm moves into the
Pacific Northwest. Wind flow will largely be southerly to
southwesterly with gusts increasing from around 30-40 mph to 40-50
mph early Thursday morning. Reno will likely be on the higher
range since the immediate valley responds strongly to southerly
winds. Other wind prone areas like Washoe Valley and Highway 395
from Doyle to Susanville will likely gust around 60 mph. Gradient
and downslope signatures are quite pronounced at this time.

As for precipitation, western Nevada and eastern Lassen County
will be extremely shadowed. The Sierra will receive more, of
course. However, this system is not extremely saturated, nor does
it have an extensive moisture tap into the warmer areas of the
Pacific. System trajectory will promote QPF in the 0.5-1" range
for the Sierra crest dropping precipitously east of the crest.
Truckee and Tahoe will likely on see 0.2-0.4 inches. Western
Nevada may eke out up to 0.1 west of Highway 395 and only a few
hundredths out to the Virginia range. Western Nevada north of
Interstate 80 could also see a few hundredths as well.

This system will be very warm. The trend continues to be
increasing snow levels with each model run. Current projections
show snow levels in the 7500-8500 ft range dropping only 500ft or
so by Thursday evening. Lowest snow levels will be in western
Lassen and central Plumas Counties around the 6500-7500 range.
Therefore, accumulating snow will likely be above Sierra passes
through Thursday evening. Donner pass may see some snow light snow
accumulation up to 1 inch very early Friday morning. Boyd

.LONG TERM...Friday and beyond...

A few lingering light showers may remain on Friday, mainly north of
I-80. Otherwise, breezy winds continue on Friday, although less
windy than Wednesday and Thursday. We will see a break in the
weather for Saturday as shortwave ridging moves over Northern CA/NV.

Another Pacific storm moves into the West Coast late Sunday into
Monday, bringing another round of gusty winds, mountain snow and
valley rains. There is good agreement in the medium range models
that we will see this storm moving in for early next week, but there
are still some questions as to how far south this storm will go.

Zonal pattern will remain over the West Coast through the rest of
next week, although the storm track looks to remain in the Pacific
Northwest meaning that breezy winds, near normal temperatures, and
intermittent cloud cover is the most likely outcome. Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

Lighter winds are expected through today with VFR conditions
prevailing, except for LIFR FZFG at KTRK this morning.

By late tonight, winds will be increasing in the Sierra with
potential for mountain turbulence and low-level wind shear into
Wednesday. Stronger winds are likely Wednesday night into Thursday,
with higher potential for aviation-related impacts. MJD/Hoon

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno