Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
420 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low across the Piedmont of North Carolina will drift
east and then southeast across the Carolinas through Thursday. A
strong ridge of high pressure across the Central Plains will expand
into our region for Friday through the weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 420 PM Tuesday...

Forecast updated to go with likely POP for thunderstorms over much
of the NW Piedmont including the Triad. 4 for 5 storms were
clustering over Forsyth County, with other storms developing rapidly
over Alamance, Randolph, and Davidson Counties. We need to watch for
isolated pulse severe with gusty wind the primary threat.

The convection should wane this evening with the loss of heating
and limited forcing for ascent. Overnight lows will range within
a few degrees of 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

The upper trough will have become closed by Wednesday morning
and will be centered near Goldsboro with a northeast-southwest
trough axis. Convective coverage on Wednesday afternoon and
evening will be more limited than previous days as the deep
moisture axis will have shifted offshore and much of the area
will be located on the subsident side of the trough. Will
include slight chance PoPs for much of the area with slightly
higher Pops across the Coastal Plain, east of the trough axis.
The convection should dissipate early Wednesday evening. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees higher as
morning low-level thickness values increase to 1410m or greater,
supporting highs in the 89 to 94 range. Lows on thursday
morning will range in the lower 70s. -Blaes
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 249 PM Tuesday...

The upper level low developing over the Mid-Atlantic today will
remain over the region through Wednesday. The low will slowly
migrate southward then southwestward Thursday and Thursday night
along the eastern periphery of the ridge located over much of the
Central U.S. A second upper level ridge will be located over the
Atlantic during that time. Central NC will remain between the two
highs through Friday night and as a result expect a mostly dry, but
hot period, with convection chances limited to the far NW and SE. At
the surface, a lee trough will linger over the region, with high
pressure over the Atlantic. The result will be continued southwest
flow ushering in warm moist air. Expect highs to be in the mid to
upper 90s  and dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s NW to mid 70s
SE through the weekend, with heat indices largely in the 100-106
range. Overnight lows will not provide much relief as they climb
from mid 70s Thursday night to the mid to upper 70s for the
remainder of the week and weekend. As stated in the previous
discussion, convection will be mainly diurnal and limited to the
differential heating zones over the mountains and along the sea
breeze.

For early next week, an upper level trough will start to amplify
over the Eastern U.S. while the aforementioned low that settled over
the northern Gulf Coast gets absorbed into the trough. Expect
increased precip chances during that period, though temperatures
should decrease some, highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period... Areas of stratus this morning with widespread
IFR/MVFR restrictions has given way to a mix of VFR and MVFR
conditions in stratocumulus early this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered convection will develop during the afternoon, especially
from interstate 85 south and especially eastward. Coverage will be
more limited than a typical summer day but across the east we will
include temporary restriction of an MVFR shower and a mention of a
vicinity shower with VFR conditions across the west. Will hold off
mention of thunder at this point given low predictability. Mainly
VFR conditions are expected this evening and overnight. Another
period of stratus is expected to redevelop late tonight although the
coverage will be more limited and generally confined to the eastern
Piedmont and especially the Coastal Plain.

Looking further ahead... Mainly afternoon and evening showers and
isolated storms are expected again on Wednesday with a possibility
for fog/low stratus in the morning across the east. Chances of
diurnal showers and storms decrease a great deal by Thursday into
the weekend with hot weather and generally VFR conditions expected.
-Blaes

&&

.CLIMATE...
RDU Records:
Date     | High   Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
18 July  |  103   1887  |     79     1887
19 July  |  101   1902  |     80     1942
20 July  |  102   1942  |     76     1981
21 July  |  102   2011  |     78     1932
22 July  |  103   2011  |     78     2011
23 July  |  105   1952  |     78     2011
24 July  |  101   2011  |     79     2011

GSO Records:
Date     | High   Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
18 July  |   97   1986  |     76     1986
19 July  |   98   1977  |     75     2016
20 July  |  100   1977  |     75     1986
21 July  |  102   1926  |     76     2011
22 July  |  101   1926  |     77     2011
23 July  |   99   1952  |     78     2010
24 July  |   99   1914  |     78     2010

FAY Records:
Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
-------------------------------------------
18 July  |  103   1942  |     76     2013
19 July  |  101   2002  |     77     1988
20 July  |  104   1932  |     80     1996
21 July  |  105   1932  |     79     1977
22 July  |  107   1932  |     79     2011
23 July  |  103   2011  |     79     1998
24 July  |  105   1952  |     79     1945

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...KCP
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
234 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-191845-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
234 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s are expected late this
week through early next week. Heat index values in excess of 100 degrees
are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
446 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ022-023-182130-
Guilford NC-Alamance NC-
446 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN ALAMANCE AND NORTHEASTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

At 445 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms 7 miles north of McLeansville, or 9 miles
southwest of Camp Springs, moving west at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Graham, McLeansville, Elon College, Gibsonville, Haw
River, Lake Guilford Mackintosh Marina, Monticello, Altamahaw-Ossipee
and Glen Raven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7946 3607 7935 3602 7966 3625 7978
      3624 7953 3625 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 090DEG 6KT 3620 7962

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
457 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ024-025-040-182200-
Chatham NC-Durham NC-Orange NC-
457 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Chapel Hill. These storms were nearly
stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Parkwood, Bethesda and Lake Jordan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 7882 3587 7886 3587 7891 3583 7891
      3579 7893 3582 7912 3602 7907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 192DEG 4KT 3588 7897

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
508 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

NCZ040-075-076-182215-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Moore NC-
508 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MOORE...LEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 508 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carthage. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Southern Pines, Pittsboro, Carthage, Pinehurst, Aberdeen,
Goldston, Whispering Pines, Pinebluff and Broadway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 7950 3507 7957 3512 7957 3524 7967
      3525 7970 3551 7977 3552 7935 3559 7937
      3561 7934 3573 7925 3579 7913 3576 7894
      3561 7899 3558 7892 3526 7923 3523 7923
      3516 7933 3504 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 315DEG 1KT 3544 7940

Ellis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
512 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             4 SSE WINSTON-SALEM     36.05N 80.24W
07/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       FORSYTH            NC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ALONG
            CLEMMONSVILLE ROAD.

&&

BSD

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