Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
328 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will gradually dissipate tonight into Monday. High
pressure aloft will build east from the Plains states mid to late
week, leading to hot weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 227 PM Sunday...

As of 18Z, a lingering boundary is still showing up on sfc obs
separating mid 70s dwpts south of it from mid-upr 60s dwpts to the
north of it.  This boundary is roughly along a KAVC-KHNZ-KRDU-KSOP
line then extending w-swwd.  A couple tstms have developed invof of
this feature, particularly north near the NC/VA border lakes, and
south of the boundary across the southern Coastal Plain and
Sandhills. The latest round of CAMs generally agree that additional
showers/tstms will develop invof this boundary, and eastward in the
airmass that's more moist and buoyant. While SFC and ML CAPE is
abundant south/east of the boundary, deep layer shear is very weak,
so expect the deepest updrafts to be short-lived. Nevertheless, the
stronger cells will be capable of producing torrential downpours and
excessive lightning. In summary, for the rest of this afternoon and
evening, the lowest PoPs (slight chance) will be across the Triad,
with PoPs increasing south and east, to likely PoPs across our SE
zones.

Look for showers/tstms to wind down and move to our east overnight.
Forecast soundings and MOS guidance suggest some fog will be
possible, particularly along and east of I-95. Lows tonight from the
upper 60s Triad and north near the VA border, to lower 70s south and
east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 227 PM EDT Sunday...

Little change in the pattern with the longwave trough axis remaining
along the Appalachians. Yet both the GFS and NAM show the plume of
highest pwat shifting to our east, and this is noted in forecast
soundings that show pwat falling to 1.5" or less across our entire
CWA Monday afternoon. Models suggest the best chance for rain will
be to our west developing over the mountains and drifting east
across the foothills, and to our east near the coast in the deeper
moisture, with lesser coverage across central NC compared to today.
Thus, will stay just below PoPs climo, going with 20-30% across our
CWA, highest east near the better moisture and lowest west. Nearly
all the guidance suggests high temps near climo, thus upper 80s for
highs.

Mainly dry Monday night with any isolated showers/tstms dissipating
by early overnight. Lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Tue/Wed: A weak upper level trough along/east of the Appalachians
will progress slowly toward the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast
Tue/Wed. Expect near normal temperatures, with the best potential
for diurnal convection along the coast and in the mountains/
foothills.

Thu-Sun: An upper level ridge will build eastward from the Central
Plains to the lower MS river valley and Deep South on Thu/Fri, then
progress slowly toward the SE coast Sat/Sun. 12Z guidance suggests
that central NC will be situated on the northeast periphery of the
ridge, in NW flow aloft. Unseasonably strong deep layer shear,
atypically steep mid-level lapse rates, and an increased potential
for shortwave energy /DPVA/ typically accompany NW flow aloft. With
the above in mind, an enhanced potential for organized severe
weather may be present over portions of the region late this week
into this weekend, particularly the Mid-Atlantic states. Expect
above normal temps in the mid 90s (perhaps upper 90s S/SW in closer
proximity to the ridge) and near or above-climo chances for
convection, though confidence is lower than average. -Vincent

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Sunday...

Through the 24 hour TAF period: Expect VFR conditions for KINT/KGSO.
To the south and east of KGSO over toward the I-95 corridor, flight
conditions will be locally impacted and reduced by scattered showers
and tstms this afternoon and evening, and potential for fog later
tonight. Outside of the precip and fog, VFR conditions expected.
Winds generally less than 10 kt at all TAF sites.

Outlook... 18z Mon through late-week. Morning LIFR to IFR CIGS and
VSBYS possible at all sites, but especially KRDU/KFAY/KRWI between
06z-14z/Mon and again Tue am. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR CIGS are
expected. There is a chance of MVFR to IFR conditions with scattered
PM showers/storms Monday and Tuesday, otherwise, lesser rain chances
during the second half of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...np/Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
253 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

NCZ007-008-021>025-038>040-073-074-083-171900-
Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-
Randolph-Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-
253 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Increasingly hot and humid weather is expected across the state by
mid to late week. Heat indices exceeding 105 degrees will be
possible, especially Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ009>011-026>028-041>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-171900-
Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
253 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms with excessive lightning and locally heavy
rainfall are expected this afternoon and evening. Isolated flooding
will be possible, primarily in urban areas and other flood prone
locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Increasingly hot and humid weather is expected across the state by
mid to late week. Heat indices exceeding 105 degrees will be
possible, especially Thursday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
236 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

NCZ078-089-161915-
Sampson NC-Wayne NC-
236 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms 7 miles west of Mount Olive. These storms were
nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Mount Olive, Brogden, Cliffs Of The Neuse State Park,
Elroy and Mar-Mac.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Very heavy rain can be expected due to the slow movement of this
storm. Prolonged heavy rain will result in ponding of water on
roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and minor flooding of
creeks and streams. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra
caution to avoid hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 7789 3517 7793 3516 7797 3518 7799
      3519 7802 3519 7804 3518 7807 3519 7816
      3509 7817 3508 7816 3507 7822 3525 7832
      3536 7792 3517 7787
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 238DEG 2KT 3518 7820

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
239 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

NCZ011-161945-
Halifax NC-
239 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Roanoke Rapids, moving east at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Halifax, Enfield, Weldon, Medoc Mountain State Park,
South Weldon, Airlie, Roanoke Rapids Lake, Rosemary and Lake Gaston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7776 3649 7773 3648 7768 3648 7765
      3644 7762 3643 7759 3642 7759 3642 7755
      3639 7754 3636 7756 3635 7758 3634 7759
      3633 7758 3616 7768 3624 7796 3650 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 260DEG 5KT 3646 7771

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

NCZ041-042-162000-
Johnston NC-Wake NC-
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WAKE AND NORTHWESTERN
JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 319 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Garner, or 10 miles southeast of Raleigh, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southeast Raleigh, Garner, Clayton, Knightdale, Wendell and Lake
Benson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7858 3571 7868 3589 7854 3571 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 229DEG 5KT 3570 7855

WSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

NCZ042-078-089-162015-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Wayne NC-
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE...
NORTHERN SAMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms 11 miles north of Clinton. These storms were
nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Mount Olive, Walnut Creek, Princeton, Pikeville, Newton
Grove, Seven Springs, Mar-Mac, Cliffs Of The Neuse State Park and
Elroy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Very heavy rain can be expected due to the slow movement of this
storm. Prolonged heavy rain will result in ponding of water on
roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and minor flooding of
creeks and streams. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra
caution to avoid hydroplaning.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3518 7784 3516 7788 3515 7789
      3517 7793 3516 7797 3519 7802 3518 7807
      3519 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816 3504 7816
      3504 7858 3550 7833 3549 7782 3543 7783
      3540 7780 3538 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 223DEG 1KT 3517 7832

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
402 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

NCZ041-042-162100-
Johnston NC-Wake NC-
402 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL WAKE AND WEST CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 402 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Garner, or 13 miles south of Raleigh,
moving south at 5 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Garner, Clayton and Lake Benson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3571 7851 3558 7841 3549 7866 3550 7866
      3550 7868 3551 7869 3552 7869 3552 7871
      3553 7874 3568 7873
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 349DEG 5KT 3564 7861

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
420 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

NCZ042-078-088-089-162115-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Wayne NC-Cumberland NC-
420 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...NORTHERN
SAMPSON...NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 420 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dunn, or 18 miles southeast of Lillington, moving northeast at 15
mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Godwin, Newton Grove, Wade, Falcon, Linden, Hobbton and Spivey's
Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 7871 3526 7878 3527 7872 3526 7870
      3525 7862 3527 7858 3530 7858 3536 7823
      3513 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816 3501 7815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 245DEG 13KT 3523 7855

Ellis