Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
227 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will track slowly southward from Virginia into
North Carolina this afternoon, stall over the region tonight, then
gradually wash out on Sunday as southerly return flow develops and
moisture advances northward into the Mid-Atlantic.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

NW flow aloft (on the western periphery of a trough along the Mid-
Atlantic/New England coast) will prevail over the OH valley and
central Appalachians through tonight, with central NC situated at
the southern periphery of the westerlies.

At 15Z, a stalled front was analyzed extending southwestward from
southeast VA into central and southwest NC, where winds shift from W
to NW and dewpoints decrease to 68-72F. The location of the boundary
will be modulated by differential heating and convection today, most
likely resulting in a shift toward the SE this aft/eve in central
NC. Scattered convection is expected to develop invof the boundary
in the Foothills and western Piedmont by mid afternoon as small
amplitude waves in KY/WV progress downstream toward northwest NC and
a subtle upper level disturbance (noted via WV imagery in upstate
SC) tracks slowly ENE into southern/southwest NC along the western
periphery of a ridge offshore the SE coast. A N-S gradient in
instability is expected over central NC, weakest on the northern
periphery of the boundary near the VA border and greatest S/SE.
Expect convection to increase in coverage late this aft/eve, via
outflow with ongoing convection from the west and via convergence
invof the boundary along/south of Hwy 64 once CINH has eroded. In
general, expect the best chance for convection along/south of Hwy
64. The location and coverage of convection this evening/tonight
will highly depend on the evolution of convection this afternoon,
the location of the boundary, and the evolution of small amplitude
shortwave energy progressing east across the region. Convection
cannot be ruled out anywhere in central NC tonight, though probs
appear highest along/south of Hwy 64 and along/east of Hwy 1. Expect
highs in the upper 80s (near VA border) to mid 90s (near SC border).
Heat indices in the 100-105F range are likely for an hour or two
this afternoon in Cumberland/Sampson/Wayne counties. Expect lows
tonight near 70F N/NW to 74F S/SE.

Weak deep layer shear and relatively weaker thermodynamics than
previous days (DCAPE 750/MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) suggest that the
potential for brief/isold downbursts attendant the collapse of
unorganized updrafts is lower than the past few days, though a more
pronounced focus and presence of small amplitude waves aloft may
offset the effects of relatively weaker thermodynamics, to some
degree. -Vincent

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday and Sunday Night/...
As of 215 PM EDT Saturday...

Cyclonic flow aloft will become more pronounced over the region on
Sunday as shortwave energy digging SE through the OH valley late
tonight progresses into the Mid-Atlantic. The weak front stalled
over portions of central NC will be modulated by differential
heating and convection this aft/eve, making it difficult to
ascertain the orientation/location of the boundary on Sunday. In
general, one would expect convection to drive the boundary south of
it's present position. Regardless, the boundary should gradually
wash out during the afternoon as surface moisture advances northward
via light southerly return flow. A much drier airmass aloft is
expected to be present in NW portions of the area on Sun, resulting
in a fairly pronounced NW-SE PWAT gradient over central NC. With the
above in mind, expect the best potential for diurnal convection to
be east of Hwy 1, though activity will highly depend on the
timing/location of small amplitude disturbances in cyclonic flow
aloft, and thus convective timing/coverage remain very uncertain.
With increased cloud cover, expect highs in the upper 80s to near
90F. Lows Sunday night in the lower 70s. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
As of 227 PM EDT Saturday...

A mid/upr trough, with its axis generally aligned along or just east
of the spine of the Appalachians, will be the primary pattern
feature through at least the first half of the week.  In this
pattern, we'll see diurnal scattered showers/tstms Mon, Tue, and
Wed, with the best chance for rain and highest rainfall amounts
across the eastern half of the state where the plume of highest
moisture and pwat will be located. As typically the case, the low
level focus for showers/tstms will be the higher terrain to our
west, the Piedmont trough central, and sea breeze to our east, then
subsequent outflow boundaries.  Worth noting though that with weak
flow and shear, the risk for severe storms should be limited. Temps
will be near normal for the first half of the week.

Rain chances will then decrease for the second half of the work week
as the aforementioned trough drifts well to our SW and in its wake
is replaced by drier NW flow over our area and eventually a ridge
building over the Southeast. This will set the stage for mostly dry
weather for Thu and Fri with highs climbing into the 90s. A
disturbance in the aforementioned NW flow may try to drop as far
south as the Carolinas for Sat, but low confidence at this point so
will stick close to climo PoPs for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Thursday/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Saturday...

24-HR TAF Period: VFR conditions will prevail through mid afternoon.
Convection this aft/eve is expected to be more numerous than
previous days, potentially affecting all terminals, though
particularly the FAY terminal. Expect light/variable winds through
the TAF period, aside from convective wind gusts. With rain expected
this aft/eve and light/calm sfc winds expected overnight, low
ceilings and/or fog may develop during the pre-dawn hours Sun
morning, however, confidence is too low to mention at this time.
Chances for convection will decrease after midnight, though isold
convection cannot be ruled out at the FAY/RWI/RDU terminals
overnight.

Looking Ahead: Expect an above-climo potential for diurnal
convection the majority of the upcoming week as an upper level low
cuts off over the Carolinas/Southeast. -Vincent

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...Vincent
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-160730-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
330 AM EDT Sat Jul 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early
evening. The main threat is damaging wind. In addition, heavy rain
and minor flooding may occur where repeating or training of
thunderstorms occur, mainly over the eastern Piedmont into the
Coastal Plain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Widespread hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
239 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

NCZ038-073-074-151915-
Stanly NC-Davidson NC-Montgomery NC-
239 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN STANLY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rockwell, or 11 miles northwest of Badin Lake, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Badin Lake, Badin, Richfield, New London, Newsom,
Pinehaven Marina, Fish Tales Marina, Morrow Mountain State Park and
Whip-O-Will Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
45 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3551 8019 3551 8018 3552 8018
      3553 8020 3554 8020 3555 8021 3557 8021
      3557 8007 3545 8006 3536 8010 3534 8014
      3534 8022 3539 8031 3543 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 289DEG 11KT 3552 8029

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

NCZ073-151945-
Stanly NC-
319 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL AFFECT STANLY COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 316 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking several thunderstorms
producing torrential rainfall in central and southern Stanly
county, moving slowly east at 5 mph.

Heavy rain, minor flooding and brief wind gusts up to 35 mph will be
possible with these storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Plyler, Locust, Norwood, Oakboro, Stanfield, Morrow
Mountain State Park and Lake Tillery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 8036 3540 8017 3537 8008 3526 8010
      3519 8006 3516 8009 3519 8011 3519 8013
      3517 8013 3517 8016 3515 8016 3517 8020
      3516 8022 3521 8025 3517 8032 3517 8036
      3518 8037 3517 8039 3524 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 262DEG 5KT 3525 8034

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
343 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

NCZ077-152045-
Harnett NC-
343 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HARNETT COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lillington, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lillington, Dunn, Angier, Erwin, Coats, Broadway, Raven Rock State
Park, Olivia, Pineview and Anderson Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 7914 3558 7892 3551 7869 3536 7855
      3525 7861 3526 7870 3527 7872 3526 7875
      3526 7880 3524 7887 3523 7888 3522 7895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 287DEG 13KT 3544 7890

10

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