Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
831 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall over the coast later tonight and Sunday.
High pressure will build aloft over the region early to mid week
bringing hot temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 831 PM EDT Saturday...

The main area of concern for additional severe storms is to the
south and east of Raleigh through 11 PM. This region has yet to be
convectively overturned and is out ahead of the large outflow moving
SE currently in eastern Harnett, Johnston, and Wilson Counties. The
area most favorable for warnings for damaging wind gusts will be
from Fayetteville to Smithfield to Goldsboro and Wilson south and
east to the Coastal Area. Weather parameters indicated residual
MLCapes near 2K along with strong surface moisture convergence and
Theta-E advection centered on Johnston/Wilson/Wayne supporting the
above.

Additional storms along the northern Piedmont are with the cold
front and are not currently as strong. This area has been
convectively overturned and these storms should stay sub-severe as
they move ESE.

The western Piedmont including the Triad is done with the severe
threat.

We will carry categorical to likely POP in the east, with chance or
slight chance west through midnight, then taper back to chance in
the east, NIL west after midnight.

Lows 65-70 NW to lower 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday and Sunday Night/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The surface front will remain stalled in the far southeast on Sunday
into Sunday night and will thus be the main focus for scattered
diurnally driven convection in the afternoon into evening. Outside
of the far southeast, expect mostly sunny skies with tolerable highs
in the 85 to 90 range. Mins Sunday night will be mostly upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

The frontal system will continue to linger south of the forecast
area on Monday. While there is a possibility this boundary will
retrograde to the north, convection should be confined to the
extreme southeastern counties. By Tuesday the upper trough begins to
flatten out and become very zonal. As a result the surface storm
track will stay well to our north as a low pressure system moves
through the Great Lakes and into New England. This pattern will keep
central NC under high pressure with surface boundaries and diurnal
heating being the only real forcing for convection. Temperatures
will rise into the low to possibly mid 90s in most locations Tuesday
Wednesday and Thursday with lows staying in the 70s.

The pattern begins to change on Friday as a second low pressure
system moves across the northeast but then is blocked by high
pressure in the North Atlantic. This will will cause the upper level
trough to deepen once again and push the surface low, and its
attendant front southward. This will increase rain chances for the
end of the week but should help cool off temperatures as cloud cover
increases. Highs by Saturday should moderate back into the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions will predominate through the 24 hour TAF period.
Diurnally driven convection will be enhanced this afternoon through
evening as a cold front moves southeast across central NC. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms with the potential for producing strong
gusty winds are expected to blossom in the northwest (GSO/INT areas)
from 20-00Z and accompany the front as it moves through. The eastern
TAF sites will have a 3-4 hour window of convection as well, from
~22Z to 03Z.

The threat for scattered convection will diminish after 03Z tonight
as the front moves southeast of the area, where it will stall and
linger near the coast through Sunday. Convection will be focused in
the frontal zone Sunday, perhaps impacting the FAY and RWI sites
during the afternoon/evening.

A drier, more stable air mass expected to settle across central NC
Monday through Wednesday, maintaining a period of VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...Ellis
AVIATION...mlm

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
911 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-089-100115-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Sampson-
911 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms, with heavy rain and gusty wind to 50 mph remain
possible through late evening. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is
expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-100115-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
911 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The threat of severe storms has ended. However, scattered storms are
still possible through midnight or 200 am in the Eastern Piedmont and
Coastal Plain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
922 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NW GLENDON            35.53N 79.62W
07/08/2017                   RANDOLPH           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON RIVERSIDE ROAD.

&&

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
923 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW COLERIDGE         35.60N 79.63W
07/08/2017                   RANDOLPH           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON ANTIOCH CHURCH ROAD.

&&

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
927 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E BENSON              35.38N 78.50W
07/08/2017                   JOHNSTON           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            HANNAH CREEK RD AND MORGAN RD.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW NEW HOPE          35.81N 77.99W
07/08/2017                   NASH               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON I-95 NEAR MILE MARKER 125.

&&

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
943 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SIMS                35.76N 78.03W
07/08/2017                   WILSON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON THE 4900 BLOCK OF ST. ROSE
            CHURCH ROAD.

&&

ELLIS

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