Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave trough will track slowly east from the lower Midwest
into the southern Appalachians by Tuesday night, then progress
across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Monday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across southern portions of
Central NC will continue through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening, tapering off after midnight Tuesday. The best instability
(2000-3000 J/Kg), PWATs (around 2"), and low-level lapse rates (7.5-
8 C/Km) are all best to the south of a surface trough bisecting
Central NC from SW to NE, roughly along I-85. The best bulk shear
(approx 25 kts) is displaced slightly to the north. As a result,
expect the strongest storms to be confined to the south, though some
isolated showers/storms may pop up elsewhere. The main threat with
the storms will be gusty winds and heavy rain. The boundary will
retreat northward overnight, allowing southerly flow to advect
additional warm, moist air into the region. As a result, overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 70s and dewpoint depressions will
decrease through the overnight hours to less than 5 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday Night/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

A shortwave progressing from the lower MS river valley into central
TN/KY will remain west of the southern Appalachians during the day
Tue, then gradually progress into the southern Appalachians late Tue
night. Forcing in central NC will be limited to weak/shallow
convergence associated with a subtle surface trough and perhaps weak
DPVA attendant small amplitude waves in WSW/SW flow aloft Tue
afternoon and evening. Forcing may increase across portions of
western NC late Tue night as the aforementioned shortwave progresses
into the mountains, primarily along/west of I-77 through 12Z Wed.
Although confidence is below normal w/regard to the timing and
coverage of convection Tue aft/eve, overall chances should be
at/above climatology. Convection will remain possible overnight
(primarily in the W/NW Piedmont) as the aforementioned shortwave
progresses into the southern Appalachians.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM EDT Monday...

Short wave impulses moving eastward in weak cyclonic flow over the
southeast states, combined with strong instability, will result
in scattered convection Wednesday into Thursday.

More organized convection is possible on Friday as a pronounced
shortwave trough over the Middle MS Valley ejects eastward, in
advance of a northern trough diving SE out of southern Canada.

A trough will develop over the Eastern US by the weekend through
early next week. An associated surface cold front should settle
southeast into the area late Saturday, before possibly stalling
along the NC coast Sunday and into Monday. Antecedent westerly flow
in the wake of the earlier shortwave trough passage on Friday looks
to advect drier air into the area by Saturday. Highest chances of
convection with the front will be mainly across eastern areas that
are closer to the stalled front. Temperatures below seasonal normals
are likely by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

24-Hour TAF period: Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period, however there is a chance for some low
cigs/visbys in the 08-12Z time frame in locations that receive
rainfall this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
begun to develop across the south (KFAY) and will continue through
the afternoon and into the evening. Where the storms occur, visbys
could drop below VFR, but should return to VFR thereafter. Winds may
also gust to around 30 kts with the storms, but otherwise expect
variable winds generally 5 kts or less. Showers and storms should
end after midnight. Expect more of the same Tuesday aft/eve. -KC

Looking Ahead: Early morning stratus (MVFR/IFR ceilings) and diurnal
(afternoon/evening) convection will be possible each day through mid
to late week. -Vincent

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Vincent/Franklin
LONG TERM...CBL/Franklin
AVIATION...KC/Vincent

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
204 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

NCZ088-089-031915-
Sampson NC-Cumberland NC-
204 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
portions of southeastern Cumberland and central and
southern Sampson Counties through 330 PM PM EDT...

At 201 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking developing thunderstorms
southeast of Cedar Creek, south of Roseboro and northeast of
Clinton. These storms were drifting to the northeast at less than
10 mph.

Very heavy rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

In addition, deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Roseboro, Garland, Salemburg, Turkey, Autryville and Bushy
Lake Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 7839 3485 7850 3485 7868 3494 7875
      3515 7842 3516 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816
      3492 7815 3486 7816 3472 7831 3472 7838
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 240DEG 8KT 3487 7851

BLAES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

NCZ085-086-088-089-032000-
Scotland NC-Sampson NC-Hoke NC-Cumberland NC-
244 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

...Scattered showers and strong thunderstorms will continue to
develop across portions of Scotland...Sampson...Hoke and Cumberland
Counties Until 400 PM EDT...

At 238 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking developing showers and
strong thunderstorms across the Sandhills and Southern Coastal
Plain. The strongest storms were located northeast of Laurinburg,
south of Roseboro, northeast of Clinton and southeast of Garland.
All of the showers and storms are drifting east and northeast at 5
to 10 mph.

Very heavy rain and pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will
be possible with the strongest storms. In addition, frequent
lighting is occurring.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Clinton, Raeford, Fort Bragg, Maxton,
Harrells, Antioch, Jerome and Hope Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 7831 3467 7832 3485 7850 3483 7890
      3490 7894 3495 7903 3483 7919 3484 7935
      3477 7933 3463 7946 3481 7969 3482 7962
      3485 7963 3504 7946 3515 7892 3516 7816
      3490 7815 3474 7820 3471 7811 3457 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 238DEG 10KT 3487 7850

BLAES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
333 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

NCZ042-078-089-032030-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Wayne NC-
333 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of southeastern
Johnston...northeastern Sampson and central Wayne Counties until 430
PM EDT...

At 333 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Olive, moving north at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Mount Olive, Four Oaks, Princeton, Newton Grove, Mar-Mac,
Brogden and Grantham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 7783 3519 7804 3518 7807 3519 7816
      3512 7817 3515 7830 3549 7843
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 195DEG 10KT 3521 7817

WSS

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