Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
655 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will push southward down the Mid-Atlantic
coast tonight. This front will settle across North Carolina and
weaken during the day Thursday. A moist and unsettled air mass will
hold over the area through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 PM Wednesday...

Thunderstorms fired along the surface trough that extended across
the eastern Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain mid to late afternoon. A
couple of these storms briefly became marginally severe and produced
isolated wet microbursts south and east of Fayetteville. These pulse
severe storms are diminishing as they typically do in this part of
the state maxing out at peak heating, then weakening and spreading
out by early evening. The outflow boundary has spread out in all
directions, with the northward extension now moving through Harnett,
Johnston, and Wilson Counties. Visible satellite data indicated some
cumulus along this boundary, and a few showers or isolated
thunderstorms may form before CINH takes over.

To the north is where the new action was located. Scattered
thunderstorms were moving southward into the unstable air mass along
the NC/VA border, characterized by MLCapes of nearly 1500 J/KG
lingering there. The deep westerly flow out ahead of the southward
moving convection appears to be a deterrent, especially along and
south of Interstate 40/85 over the northern Piedmont of NC. Most Hi-
Res models suggest that the convection will make it into the
Roxboro, Henderson, and Roanoke Rapids areas with new growth on the
SSW moving outflow boundary nearing the NC/VA border at the moment.

We will carry the higher POP north and northeast of the Triad and
north of the Triangle areas through late evening, anticipating the
convection to die off with increasing CINH after sunset. A few
showers/storms warrant a lingering chance POP along or near outflows
elsewhere.

Overnight, partly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Thursday night/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

Confidence in convection details is further reduced as early as
tomorrow, as the very weak steering flow combined with the
increasingly moist column (PW rising to 1.75-2.0") and surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s favors numerous storms with
slow, outflow-dominant motions. The backdoor front which slides
southward into NC tonight appears to have few consequences,
considering the very light surface flow along and either side of it
(indicating very small low level mass convergence), the almost
nonexistent dewpoint response, and the continued elevated
thicknesses (10-15 m above normal) over NC through Thu. What will
remain will be just a subtle pressure trough through central NC,
with little else in the way of a convective focus. Mid level debris
clouds from upstream convection may help to reduce insolation a bit
Thu, although this may be minimized by weak subsidence aloft in the
wake of today's shortwave trough. But it still appears that we'll
see scattered to numerous storms developing in the afternoon
(perhaps focusing first on the higher terrain and on the sea
breeze), as we achieve moderate instability in conjunction with the
high PW. Once again, the risk of large hail and strong winds should
be fairly low (although not zero) with the weak deep layer shear and
modest mid level lapse rates mostly under 6 C/km, but localized high
rainfall totals may result in an urban and stream flooding threat.
Convection should again fall off from late evening onward with loss
of heating, however the moist column and marginal elevated CAPE
overnight may still support isolated showers and a storm or two
through the night. Highs 85-92. Lows around 70. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Persistent subtropical ridging over the Atlantic will amplify and
retrogress slowly through the weekend. This will maintain a
climatological warm and moist airmass over the area into the
middle of next week. This will not be an environment with strong
forcing or strong shear, and details beyond the weekend are
particularly low confidence.

A stalled frontal zone will lie over the area Friday into Saturday,
providing at least modest low level forcing to stimulate/enhance
diurnally driven convective activity. As such, ongoing PoPs in the
likely (60-70%) range are on track with highs mostly from 85 to 90.
The frontal zone becomes more diffuse on Sunday, with weakened
forcing to stir up the unstable airmass, so 40-50% PoPs suffice for
Sunday with highs again in the 85 to 90 range.

A front approaching from the west suffers from questionable timing
but looks to be blocked and stalled over the eastern Carolinas later
Monday, and could linger across the coastal areas through Tuesday or
even Wednesday. Will have 40-ish PoPs area-wide Monday, and tilt the
range towards the east for Tuesday and Wednesday just to set the
trend pending better/later model consensus. No airmass change and
thicknesses exceed 1410 meters each day...still looking like 85 to
90 each day with mesoscale variations due to convection. Min temps
through the period will be a broken record as well...upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Monday/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

Aviation conditions will be mostly favorable, although scattered to
numerous storms are anticipated, mainly 19z today through this
evening. Passage of a weak upper level trough, strong heating, and a
moist atmosphere will help prompt development of storms today, first
affecting INT/GSO soon after 19z, then shifting to the E and SE to
around RDU by 20z or 21z, then to RWI/FAY near 22z or 23z. Storms
will start out isolated to scattered before increasing in coverage
late afternoon into early evening. By 21z or 22z, storms may form
into clusters that are not be easily circumnavigable. Cigs/vsbys
will be mostly VFR today into early tonight, except for a period of
MVFR or perhaps briefly IFR cigs/vsbys and erratic strong and gusty
winds in and near storms. MVFR fog is possible areawide after 06z.
Confidence in MVFR fog is lower than usual, however the risk of
worse conditions (such as IFR/LIFR) appears to be very low, with VFR
remaining prevalent. Light winds mainly from the W or NW are
expected through this afternoon, becoming light/variable under 6 kts
this evening/tonight as a weak backdoor front drops into the area
from the north.

Looking beyond 18z Thu: We'll stay in a wet and unstable pattern
with a daily chance of showers and storms, mainly (but not solely)
each afternoon and evening, through at least the upcoming weekend.
VFR conditions will continue to dominate, however sub-VFR conditions
and gusty winds are likely in and near storms. The risk of early
morning sub-VFR fog and stratus will be fairly low through Sat
morning, but should increase Sun morning and beyond. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
713 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-152315-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
713 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

An isolated strong thunderstorm may briefly produce gusty winds to 50
mph and frequent lightning through late evening, mainly over the
northern Piedmont. Otherwise, hazardous weather is not expected at
this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly between 200 PM and
700 PM Thursday afternoon and evening. The main threats are isolated
wet microbursts with wind gusts to 60 mph, and frequent lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
654 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

NCZ089-142330-
Sampson NC-
654 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...a strong thunderstorm will affect portions of southeastern Sampson
County Until 730 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rowan, or 17 miles southwest of Wallace, moving east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ivanhoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 7826 3456 7825 3458 7826 3461 7831
      3463 7832 3464 7831 3465 7832 3467 7832
      3471 7811 3470 7814 3468 7816 3455 7825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 260DEG 17KT 3459 7826

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
736 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

NCZ009>011-150045-
Vance NC-Warren NC-Halifax NC-
736 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...a line of strong thunderstorms will affect portions of Vance...
Warren and northwestern Halifax Counties Until 845 PM EDT...

At 736 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Boydton to 9 miles
north of Norlina to near Brunswick. Movement was south at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Warrenton, Norlina, Littleton, Middleburg, Macon, Medoc
Mountain State Park, Gillburg, Afton and Steele Creek Marina &
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Boaters on the open water and those camping outdoors are especially
vulnerable to the dangers of lightning. Seek harbor immediately and
find safe shelter in a nearby building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7790 3651 7790 3650 7784 3622 7784
      3623 7813 3625 7813 3626 7817 3625 7819
      3627 7829 3627 7831 3625 7832 3627 7851
      3646 7851 3650 7850 3654 7845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 005DEG 12KT 3665 7846 3658 7822 3663 7794

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
743 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

NCZ042-150045-
Johnston NC-
743 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...a strong thunderstorm will affect portions of central Johnston
County Until 845 PM EDT...

At 742 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Smithfield, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Micro, Selma, Four Oaks, Pine Level and Princeton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 7816 3540 7815 3534 7819 3534 7822
      3533 7822 3532 7823 3550 7852 3565 7842
      3556 7808
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 298DEG 10KT 3554 7840

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
819 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

NCZ022-150115-
Guilford NC-
819 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...a strong thunderstorm will affect portions of northern Guilford
County Until 915 PM EDT...

At 819 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellisboro, or 9 miles south of Madison, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, High Point, McLeansville, Summerfield, Stokesdale,
Jamestown, Haw River State Park, Lake Jeanette Marina, Monticello and
Lake Townsend Marina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7972 3618 7961 3606 7969 3598 7999
      3618 8004 3626 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 313DEG 11KT 3625 7994

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
823 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

NCZ027-043-150130-
Nash NC-Wilson NC-
823 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2017

...a strong thunderstorm will affect portions of southwestern Nash
and western Wilson Counties Until 930 PM EDT...

At 823 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bailey, or 18 miles southwest of Nashville, moving east at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wilson, Elm City, Bailey, Kenly, Lucama, Middlesex, Black Creek,
Sims, Buckhorn Reservoir and New Hope.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 7795 3560 7805 3559 7807 3560 7812
      3571 7816 3573 7819 3573 7821 3575 7822
      3575 7823 3577 7825 3579 7824 3582 7826
      3587 7822 3584 7785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 283DEG 8KT 3577 7819

77

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