Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT Sun Jun 04 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over VA and NC this morning will yield to a lee
surface trough that will strengthen and move east across the
Carolinas later today through Monday. A lead cold front will cross
our region Monday night, followed by the passage of a stronger one
late Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM Sunday...

Just minor tweaks required to the near term forecast, mainly to
adjust high temperatures up a degree or two, and raise dewpoints up
a few degrees.

Cluster of storms that developed along a 925-805mb pseudo warm front
have pretty much dissipated as they drifted into a drier less
supportive air mass.

The remainder of the morning into the early afternoon should remain
dry. Expect isolated-scattered convection to build by 18Z-20Z as the
atmosphere becomes slightly unstable and subtle perturbations aloft
provide added lift to trigger/sustain convection. Expect convective
coverage to be higher west of highway 1, with coverage in the
coastal plain expected to be no worse than isolated. Meso-scale
convective parameters suggest the stronger/taller storms will have
the potential to produce strong gusty winds. However other
parameters such bulk shear and weak confluence/forcing suggest that
the potential for numerous strong/severe storms appears remote.

Abundant sunshine through mid afternoon should warm temperatures
well into the 80s, touching 90 in parts of the Sandhills and
southern coastal plain.

Tonight, the approach of a series of perturbations loft will back
and increase the low level flow into a sly direction, advecting
moisture into our region. The added moisture coupled with lift
supplied by the disturbances and increasing convergence will
support/sustain scattered convection, especially late evening into
the overnight hours across the western Piedmont. Similar to this
afternoon, appears that convection will be limited across the
coastal plain and most of the Sandhills. Overnight temperatures
within a degree or two of 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

Relatively deep confluent flow into a trough axis from the surface
to 850 mb, in a region of height falls downstream of the upper
trough amplifying from the nw, will support the development and
expansion of numerous showers and storms Mon, with the latest
arrival/occurrence across the southeastern half of the forecast area
that should allow the warmest temperatures in the upper 80s.  Lower
to middle 80s, owing to increasing multi-layered cloudiness and
convection, are expected otherwise and elsewhere. A lead cold front
will settle slowly sewd across central NC Mon night, before likely
stalling across the srn Coastal Plain and Sandhills by Tue morning.

With deep swly to wswly flow, including both the cloud-bearing layer
and the llj, some back-building and training appears increasingly
likely --amidst an environment characterized by precipitable water
values between 1.75-2.00 inches-- Mon and particularly early Mon
night. As the previous shift noted, localized flash flooding may
result. Coverage and confidence in flooding does not warrant a
watch, given 3-hr flash flood guidance values generally between 3-4
inches.  A few strong, precipitation-loaded wind gusts will also be
possible, but any severe threat should be limited by both weak mid
level lapse rates and tempered surface heating, the latter
particularly over the Piedmont.

Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

For Tuesday a surface low exits the mid-Atlantic coast and heads
northeast into the Atlantic while a cutoff upper level low sags
southward over NY and PA. This will bring good upper dynamics for
divergence aloft over central NC as the right entrance region of an
300 mb jet stays along the northern tier through Thursday before
finally moving offshore Thursday night. Despite that being in place
the main surface low will be along and off the coast during this
time keeping the best chances for heavy precipitation well off to
our southeast. Expect a fair amount of clouds and some showers/light
rain Tuesday through Thursday but QPF amounts during this time frame
should remain relatively low. Temperatures will also remain lower
than normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s each day.

We see a distinct change in pattern on Friday as the cutoff low
moves off to the northeast and zonal flow moves overhead as part of
a very baggy eastern CONUS upper trough. High pressure will dominate
at the surface and drier conditions are expected to prevail with
less cloud cover. As the high moves offshore on Saturday
temperatures will increase with southerly return flow. A low level
confluence zone between the surface high and a weak low coming out
of the great lakes leaves some question about a weak frontogenesis
zone that could spawn a few showers over the area on Saturday. This
activity will move offshore on Sunday leaving high pressure in
control once again. Highs increasing during this time to the mid to
upper 80s by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

VFR parameters across central NC this afternoon will gradually give
way to widespread IFR ceilings later tonight with pockets of LIFR
ceilings probable. In addition, scattered convection is expected in
vicinity of the Triad terminals late this afternoon through this
evening, with scattered showers passing in vicinity of KINT and
possibly KGSO through the overnight hours. Elsewhere, isolated
convection may occur in vicinity of KRDU, and possibly near KFAY,
early this evening. The probability of convection appears very low
near RWI.

Widespread IFR/MVFR ceilings are highly likely across central NC
Monday and Monday night. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms and associated MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions will
develop by late Monday morning across the northern Piedmont, and
drift southward into most of central NC by mid-late afternoon,
persisting into Monday evening. There should be notable decrease in
convection across the nw Piedmont including the Triad terminals
prior to midnight Monday night, and near KRDU and KRWI after
midnight.

Aviation conditions will gradually improve Tuesday into Tuesday night
as a cold front crosses the region. Mostly VFR conditions
anticipated Wednesday through Friday though periods of MVFR ceilings
are possible each afternoon-early evening as cold air aloft coupled
with residual moisture and afternoon heating support the development
of a cumulus field.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
658 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-051100-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
658 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Repeated showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday night may result
in localized flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
224 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

NCZ074-075-041900-
Moore NC-Montgomery NC-
224 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...a strong thunderstorm will affect portions of west central Moore
and central Montgomery Counties Until 300 PM EDT...

At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Troy, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Biscoe, Star, Candor, Eagle Springs, Pekin and Steeds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 7986 3547 7980 3544 7968 3535 7962
      3528 7965 3523 7971 3518 7985 3519 7992
      3526 7999 3534 8000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 227DEG 19KT 3528 7986

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

NCZ073-074-041915-
Stanly NC-Montgomery NC-
230 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...a strong thunderstorm will affect portions of southeastern Stanly
and southwestern Montgomery Counties Until 315 PM EDT...

At 230 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Ansonville, or 10 miles south of Albemarle, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Norwood, Mount Gilead, Uwharrie Haven and Lake Tillery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8025 3531 8020 3534 8009 3534 8000
      3526 7999 3519 7992 3518 7986 3516 7990
      3516 7998 3514 8002 3514 8007 3518 8011
      3519 8011 3517 8014 3517 8016 3515 8016
      3517 8020 3516 8022 3521 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 246DEG 14KT 3522 8015

VINCENT

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