Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
305 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful storm system will cross the region this morning.
Intensifying low pressure over the Northeast U.S. will produce windy
conditions over our region today through Friday. High pressure will
build over the area from the west over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Thursday...

...High threat remains for a few severe thunderstorms early this
morning across central NC...

Latest near term model guidance and meso analysis still point to
severe storm parameters in place across essentially the southeast
half of central NC early this morning. 00Z analysis depicts a 50-
60kt jet across the Deep South. This feature will lift across our
region later this morning, primarily in the 09Z-13Z. This feature
will supply central NC with a warm moist air mass in the lower
levels of the atmosphere, especially along and east of highway 1. At
the same time this is occurring, a strong s/w rounding the base of
the upper trough will swing newd, resulting in a negative tilt to
this feature. This, in turn, will steepen already steep lapse rates
aloft (8 deg C/km per GSO 06Z sounding). Finally, central NC will be
in the nose of 100+ kt jet lifting ne from the northern Gulf.

These parameters should support the development of scattered
thunderstorms, a few of which, will exhibit supercell
characteristics. Expect the storms to initially fire by 09Z in
vicinity of the southern Piedmont/Sandhills then expand
northeastward into the coastal plain. Main severe weather threats
will be large hail (ping pong to golf ball size probable) and
damaging straight line winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out considering the strong kinematics (0-1km storm relative helicity
300-400 m2/s2 expected by 09Z). The main limiting factor to the
development of strong/severe storms will be the lack of near surface
instability. This relatively stable air at the surface may mitigate
the threat for severe storms.

By 12Z, meso models suggest greatest threat for storms along and
east of I-95 with the bulk of the parameters supportive of
strong/severe storms exiting our region by late morning.

Behind the convection, sfc winds will be west southwest and increase
to around 20 mph with gusts 30-40 mph. Plan to maintain the current
wind advisory. With the ground pretty saturated from recent rains,
these winds will likely topple several trees. With the passage of
the 850-700mb trough this afternoon, expect a broken band of showers
to develop, primarily across the northern Piedmont/northern coastal
plain. Due to the steep lapse rates aloft, these showers may also be
accompanied by very strong wind gusts and small hail.

High temperatures today will likely occur prior to noon, with
temperatures steady or slowly falling this afternoon.

Tonight, windy conditions will persist with wind gusts 20 to 30 mph
highly probable. Skies will continue to gradually clear though
periods of variable cloudy skies possible across the far north. Min
temps near 40 nw to the mid 40s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY and FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 137 AM Thursday...

The upper level trough axis will move across central NC on
Friday morning with a deep west to northwesterly flow persisting
across the area into Friday night. Large scale subsidence and
low level cold advection should preclude any widespread
precipitation during the period. However, steep lapse rates and
saturation around the 800 to 750 mb layer during Friday
afternoon should result in the development of some flat cumulus
at around 5kft. BUFR soundings note a shallow layer of CAPE
Friday afternoon so cant rule out a sprinkle across the north
near the VA/NC border. Strong gusty winds are still expected
during most of the day, generally ranging around 25-30 kts with
gusts as high as 40 kts with the strongest winds and gusts
focused across the east and northeast. Winds should notably
relax on Friday night. Highs Friday will range in the mid 50s
north to the lower 60s across the south. Lows Friday night will
range in the mid to upper 30s. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1045 PM Wednesday...

A ridge is expected to amplify across the Deep South and
Eastern US through over the weekend into early next week. The
thermal trough will shift east as well on Saturday, with high
pressure to settle overhead late Saturday, resulting in the best
chance of frost (and even a few freezing temps) Saturday night.
A warming trend will then continue through the week as return
flow develops between the departing high and cold front
approaching the Tenn Valley Tuesday and Wednesday, which also
brings the next chance of showers around the middle of the week.
-Smith/Ellis

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...

Aviation conditions will deteriorate through 12Z with MVFR/IFR
ceilings, blustery sfc winds, and numerous showers and thunderstorms
overspreading central NC. A few of the storms will be capable of
producing wind gusts to 60kts along with large hail. These adverse
conditions will be most widespread between 08Z-13Z.

Expect ceilings to lift west-to-east after 13Z while sfc winds will
strengthening out of the west-southwest with gusts 30-40kts highly
probable. This will cause stiff cross winds along se-nw orientated
runways.  While VFR conditions anticipated by 15Z across the region,
a band of showers may develop over the northern Piedmont around 18Z
and travel east-southeast across the region. Sfc winds will slowly
subside this evening though gusts 25-30kts appear likely. The windy
conditions will persist into Friday with blustery nw winds gusting
around 30 kts. Otherwise VFR parameters expected.

VFR conditions and lighter sfc winds expected Friday night through
Monday.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight
for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES/SMITH/ELLIS
AVIATION...SMITH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
340 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-070930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
340 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A few strong to severe storms will cross central North Carolina
early this morning, mainly through 11 AM. These storms will be
capable of producing damaging straight line winds, large hail, and
possibly an isolated tornado.

Behind the thunderstorms, strong west southwest winds will develop
with frequent gusts 35 to 40 mph highly probable.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Lows Saturday night in the mid 30s, coupled with light winds, could
result in the formation of frost, especially across the Piedmont.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this morning.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
233 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE WINSTON-SALEM      36.13N 80.22W
04/06/2017  M41 MPH          FORSYTH            NC   ASOS

            SMITH-REYNOLDS AIRPORT (KINT) REPORTED A
            PEAK WIND GUST OF 41 MPH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
            A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
336 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW HIGH POINT         36.02N 80.07W
04/06/2017                   FORSYTH            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON ROAD AND POWER LINES NEAR
            HILLSIDE DRIVE AND MOWERY DRIVE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
407 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

NCZ083-060830-
Anson NC-
407 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of Anson County Until
430 AM EDT...

At 407 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sturdivants, or 14 miles southwest of Wadesboro, moving northeast at
50 mph.

Wind gusts as high as 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wadesboro, Polkton, Lilesville, Morven, Peachland, McFarlan, Blewett
Falls Lake and White Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 8029 3510 8004 3508 8000 3512 7995
      3512 7992 3507 7991 3504 7988 3501 7990
      3498 7987 3495 7987 3491 7985 3488 7987
      3486 7990 3481 7992 3482 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0807Z 240DEG 45KT 3484 8028

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
431 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

NCZ073-074-060900-
Stanly NC-Montgomery NC-
431 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of Stanly and
northwestern Montgomery Counties Until 500 AM EDT...

At 431 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking A strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Midland, or 12 miles southwest of Albemarle, moving
northeast at 75 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Badin Lake, Plyler, Norwood, Badin, Oakboro, Stanfield,
Richfield, New London and Eldorado.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8024 3551 7981 3519 8011 3519 8013
      3517 8014 3517 8016 3515 8016 3517 8020
      3516 8022 3521 8025 3520 8030 3517 8035
      3518 8037 3516 8041 3517 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 217DEG 63KT 3521 8031

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
442 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

NCZ021-022-038-060915-
Guilford NC-Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-
442 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

...Strong thunderstorms will affect portions of northwestern
Guilford...Forsyth and northern Davidson Counties Until 515 AM EDT...

At 441 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Cooleemee, or near Mocksville, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Lexington, Kernersville,
Clemmons, Bermuda Run, Huntsville, Lewisville and Summerfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
45 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8050 3614 8044 3626 8044 3625 7983
      3597 8003 3572 8037 3574 8046 3577 8045
      3583 8048 3585 8042 3584 8039 3587 8039
      3588 8042 3589 8037 3596 8038 3599 8042
      3601 8042 3606 8046 3604 8049 3608 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 0841Z 221DEG 56KT 3582 8059

VINCENT