Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1029 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An amplifying upper level disturbance will dig southeast through the
into the Mid-Atlantic tonight before progressing offshore on
Thursday. An associated cold front will sweep east across the
Carolinas late tonight. In the wake of the front, brisk northwest
flow will usher a much colder airmass into the region Thursday and
Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 PM Wednesday...

Initial band of showers and storms are currently moving across the
Western and Northern Piedmont this evening in advance of a strong
cold front and potent s/w disturbance, expected to cross the area
after midnight. Deep layer shear remains impressive across the area
this evening, however, the lack surface instability has lead to the
activity being generally elevated this evening. Given this and the
better mid level lapse rates from the approaching s/w still to the
west expect this activity should remain sub-severe, though some wind
gust of 30-40 mph and some sub-severe hail will be possible as we
will likely see some mid level rotation associated with the updrafts
thanks to the impressive shear.

We should see a brief lull of a couple of hours after this initial
band moves through the area and a band of showers and storms
associated with the main surface front moves in from the west. This
second band appears to serve as the best chance of seeing any severe
storms, though surface based instability will continue to be the
overall limiting factor (generally a couple hundred J/kg at best).
We should see much better height falls and increase DPVA with the
approaching potent s/w. In addition, southerly low level flow will
advect better low level moisture into the area in advance of the
front. All this should lead to increasing upper level forcing and
possibly some weak surface based instability. Thus, SPC has keep
central NC in a marginal risk for severe storms overnight, with a
main risk of damaging winds and small hail, generally from midnight
to 6 AM or so. Temps overnight will remain warm ahead of the front
in the 50s and 60s. Behind the front we should see temps fall,
leading to a wide range of low temps through 12Z, lower 40s nw to
the upper 50s se.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

Expect the cold frontal passage to occur around sunrise Thu morning,
with cold advection for most of the diurnal heating cycle. Expect
WNW/NW winds sustained at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph during
the strongest cold advection mid/late morning, decreasing to 15-20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures
for the calendar day will likely occur after midnight, with temps
falling from NW-SE after sunrise and remaining stable thereafter,
perhaps rising a degree or two in the W/NW Piedmont during the
afternoon. Mostly clear skies will prevail during the day Thu into
Thu night. With a cold/dry airmass in place and decreasing winds Thu
evening/night, expect chilly low temps in the low to mid 20s by
12Z Fri morning, coldest in the N/NW Piedmont. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

Rapid translation of high pressure over and southeast of the area
Friday, as well as heights building aloft will promote a rapid
transition to warm air advection early this weekend. In the
interim...a chilly start on Friday morning prior to the onset of
warm air advection late in the day will provide us our coolest day
of the week, with highs stalling out in the mid to upper 40s. Low
level southerly flow will offset clear skies and prevent a dramatic
diurnal crash, and lows will be mostly in the mid 30s at sunrise on
Saturday. Deep southwest return flow and gradual eastward
progression of the upper ridge will allow highs to reach the mid and
upper 60s Saturday, with highs Sunday from 70 to 75.

The ridging flattens and a weak backdoor front edges south of the
area early on Monday. The front will slip through accompanied by
only a few light showers very early on Monday, and cool air
advection will be tempered by predominantly westerly flow following
frontal passage. Highs Monday will be mostly in the mid 60s. Frontal
zone stalls across the Gulf states and we will see moisture racing
east in the westerly flow as a cutoff low over central Texas and its
deepening surface reflection begins pumping moisture north out of
the Gulf. This system will be moving across the Gulf states and
there's still a good deal of uncertainty concerning the arrival time
of potential rain, but the chances will be higher on Wednesday.
Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday look to remain mild...55 to 60, but
Wednesday could wind up being the transition day to another fast but
brief cool down depending on the speed of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 649 PM Wednesday...

24-HR TAF Period: A band of scattered convection (IFR-MVFR ceilings)
is expected along and ahead of the cold front as it progresses
eastward across central NC overnight, earliest (02-08Z) at the Triad
terminals and latest (06-12Z) at the RDU/FAY/RWI terminals. An
isolated severe thunderstorm capable of producing westerly wind
gusts AOA 50 knots will be possible late this evening (greatest
potential at INT/GSO terminals). Strong SW/WSW wind gusts (30-40 kt)
will be possible at any terminal impacted by convection this
evening/tonight. Winds will shift to the NW at 10-15 knots in the
wake of the cold front tonight, between 06-09Z at INT/GSO, 08-11Z at
RDU/RWI, and 09-12Z at the FAY terminal. Strong NWLY crosswinds are
expected through 15 to 21z with sustained winds of 15 to 25kts and
wind gusts as high as 30 to 35 knots.

Looking Ahead: Predominately dry VFR conditions are expected through
the weekend.  A cold front will approach the area Sunday night
and into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

REC           REC            LO            HI
DAY     MAX    YR     MIN    YR      MAX   YR      MIN   YR

RDU RECORDS
02/08   75   2009      4   1895     17   1895     56   1891

GSO RECORDS
02/08   75   1925      4   1936     26   1907     51   1965

FAY RECORDS
02/08   79   1937     13   1977     34   1979     57   1965

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSD/Vincent
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...CBL/Vincent
CLIMATE...RAH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1057 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

NCZ007>010-024>026-090445-
Franklin NC-Vance NC-Durham NC-Person NC-Warren NC-Granville NC-
Orange NC-
1057 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

 ...A strong thunderstorm WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF northwestern
Franklin...Vance...northern Durham...southeastern Person...western
Warren...Granville and northeastern Orange Counties Until 1145 PM
EST...

At 1057 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking A strong thunderstorm near
Butner, or 10 miles west of Creedmoor, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Durham, Henderson, Oxford, Creedmoor, Butner, Norlina, Kittrell,
Rougemont, Stem and Stovall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 7807 3607 7867 3607 7875 3604 7875
      3599 7891 3617 7906 3654 7845 3654 7827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0357Z 240DEG 43KT 3613 7887

23

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1139 PM EST WED FEB 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 PM     HAIL             3 NNW ANGIER            35.55N 78.76W
02/08/2017  U1.00 INCH       WAKE               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

RTE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1222 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

NCZ028-043-090615-
Edgecombe NC-Wilson NC-
1222 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of Edgecombe and
Wilson Counties Until 115 AM EST...

At 1221 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking A strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Fremont, or 18 miles north of Goldsboro, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tarboro, Wilson, Elm City, Princeville, Sharpsburg, Pinetops, Lucama,
Stantonsburg, Black Creek and Macclesfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 7735 3583 7739 3581 7742 3580 7747
      3557 7782 3559 7782 3560 7806 3559 7807
      3561 7813 3573 7818 3584 7790 3584 7785
      3588 7782 3603 7747 3600 7743 3600 7741
      3590 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 245DEG 39KT 3564 7805

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
233 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

NCZ039-040-073>075-090815-
Stanly NC-Chatham NC-Randolph NC-Moore NC-Montgomery NC-
233 AM EST THU FEB 9 2017

 ...A line of heavy rain showers WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF Stanly...
southwestern Chatham...southern Randolph...Moore and Montgomery
Counties Until 315 AM EST...

At 231 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking A line of heavy rain
showers along a line extending from 6 miles west of Seagrove to
Albemarle. Movement was east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with the line of showers as
well as behind the line of showers.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Southern Pines, Troy, Carthage, Badin Lake, Pinehurst,
Aberdeen, Biscoe, Goldston and Seagrove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

These showers may intensify into thunderstorms, so be certain to
monitor local radio stations and available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 8039 3560 7992 3563 7927 3555 7928
      3552 7935 3548 7936 3540 7930 3517 7932
      3512 7938 3518 7968 3518 7985 3514 8005
      3519 8011 3515 8016 3516 8022 3521 8025
      3517 8035 3518 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 274DEG 48KT 3552 7990 3536 8022

Ellis