Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Raleigh, NC

713 
WWUS52 KRAH 182134
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
534 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

NCC007-153-182230-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170318T2230Z/
Anson NC-Richmond NC-
534 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANSON AND RICHMOND COUNTIES...

At 533 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wadesboro,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Rockingham, Hamlet, Hoffman, Ellerbe, Dobbins Heights, Lilesville,
Morven, Diggs, East Rockingham and Blewett Falls Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Raleigh.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is also occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 8002 3494 8000 3505 7994 3510 7958
      3509 7958 3507 7957 3506 7949 3504 7946
      3502 7952 3499 7957 3494 7959 3493 7957
      3491 7956 3486 7962 3485 7963 3484 7962
      3482 7963 3482 7964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 266DEG 22KT 3493 7997 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

499 
WWUS52 KRAH 182144
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
544 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

NCC007-182154-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170318T2230Z/
Anson NC-
544 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3483 7991 3486 7990 3486 7988 3490 7985
      3495 7987 3498 7986 3506 7949 3504 7946
      3502 7952 3499 7957 3494 7959 3493 7957
      3491 7956 3485 7963 3484 7962 3482 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 280DEG 36KT 3488 7980 

$$

NCC153-182230-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170318T2230Z/
Richmond NC-
544 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RICHMOND COUNTY...

At 544 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rockingham,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Rockingham, Hamlet, Hoffman, Dobbins Heights, Diggs, East Rockingham
and Sandhills Game Land.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Raleigh.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 7991 3486 7990 3486 7988 3490 7985
      3495 7987 3498 7986 3506 7949 3504 7946
      3502 7952 3499 7957 3494 7959 3493 7957
      3491 7956 3485 7963 3484 7962 3482 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 280DEG 36KT 3488 7980 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

26

814 
WWUS52 KRAH 182158
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
558 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

NCC153-182230-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170318T2230Z/
Richmond NC-
558 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RICHMOND COUNTY...

At 557 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hamlet, or 9
miles southeast of Rockingham, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Hamlet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Raleigh.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 7975 3488 7969 3492 7967 3494 7959
      3493 7957 3491 7956 3485 7963 3484 7962
      3482 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 278DEG 35KT 3485 7963 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

26

681 
WWUS52 KRAH 182201
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
601 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

NCC153-182210-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170318T2230Z/
Richmond NC-
601 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN RICHMOND COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3482 7975 3488 7969 3492 7967 3494 7959
      3493 7957 3491 7956 3485 7963 3484 7962
      3482 7963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 266DEG 22KT 3485 7960 

$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
220 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this evening. High pressure will
build into the Carolinas from the west for the remainder of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM SATURDAY...

Light rain assoc/w low-level warm advection and small amplitude
waves in westerly flow aloft has progressed east of the I-95
corridor as of 18Z. Aside from cirrus, skies have already cleared in
the Western Piedmont, where temps have rebounded into the lower 60s.
East of Hwy 1, temps remained in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Expect
afternoon highs to range from the mid 60s in the far Western
Piedmont to the mid/upper 50s in the Coastal Plain, coolest east of
I-95 where light rain and low ceilings will erode the latest.

A ~110 knot jet streak diving SSE through the OH valley this morning
(on the western periphery of an upper level low over the lower Great
Lakes) will amplify an upper level trough over the region as it digs
into the western Carolinas today. As a result, strong height falls,
strengthening cyclonic shear/curvature vorticity and increasingly
diffluent flow aloft (in the left exit region of the PJ) will be
favorably juxtaposed with a cold front /low-level trough/
progressing east across central NC. Although FROPA will occur a few
hours after peak heating, rapid destabilization is expected along
the front as it progresses into a thermodynamic environment
characterized by decreasing Theta-E w/height in the presence of
strong upper forcing /layer-lifting/, particularly in vicinity of
the Hwy 1 corridor. NAM forecast soundings show marked cooling aloft
(-10C isotherm falling to 11 KFT and -20C isotherm falling to 16
KFT) and rapid steepening of low/mid-level lapse rates late this
afternoon, with as much as 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and SCP values as
high as 3-5 by ~00Z at RDU (similar parameters at RWI). The 12Z
NAM4KM and a number of HRRR model runs suggest that, after the lull
this afternoon, scattered convection will re-develop along the front
in central VA/NC in the 21-00Z time frame, progressing east of the I-
95 corridor by Midnight. In the wake of the front, winds will veer
to the W/WNW and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this
evening, though gustiness may decrease and become sporadic after
midnight if a shallow nocturnal inversion develops despite CAA.
Overnight lows will be driven by cold advection, in the mid/upper
30s, coldest NW Piedmont.

Severe Potential: A conditional potential for isolated supercells
capable of producing quarter to golfball size hail and damaging
winds will exist late this afternoon and evening, particularly
along/east of Hwy 1 and north of Hwy 64, or from the Triangle north
and northeast to the VA border between ~21Z this afternoon and ~03Z
this evening. -Vincent

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 135 PM SATURDAY...

Patchy frost or a light freeze is possible Sunday night across the
northern tier counties...

The upper low will be in the vicinity of Tidewater VA Sunday
morning, having moved rapidly south southeast overnight. Model time
sections show a surge of deeper moisture and potential for some
showers accompanying the upper low, and this surge will graze our NE
counties between 12 and 16 UTC. The cloud coverage and stronger cold
air advection will also be slanted in that direction, resulting in a
slower warmup with highs in the northeast stalling in the mid 50s,
while upper 50s are expected elsewhere under mostly sunny skies.
Northerly winds will gust to 20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph along
and east of I95.

The pressure gradient will weaken rapidly Sunday night as high
pressure builds quickly over the region, allowing winds to diminish
to light and variable after sunset. Good radiational conditions will
allow mins to fall to the low to mid 30s by sunrise Monday - which
is about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM Saturday...

Surface high pressure will quickly slip south of the area on Monday,
with winds backing to southwest and setting up a warming trend
Monday into Tuesday with highs Monday climbing to the mid 60s, and
further into the low and mid 70s Tuesday. Tuesday will be a
transition day despite the warm temperatures, however, as a cold
front will be developing across the Ohio Valley and sinking slowly
south into the area by Tuesday afternoon, accompanied by widespread
showers and possibly some thunderstorms which will persist through
Tuesday night as the front slowly edges south.

The showers will be diminishing and should be ending across the
southern tier counties by mid day Wednesday. Clearing will be rather
slow, and may be delayed until Wednesday night, and the ensuing cold
air advection will limit highs on Wednesday to the mid and upper
50s. The cool air mass settling down the Atlantic seaboard will push
mins to the low and mid 30s Wednesday night, and highs Thursday will
struggle to reach 50-55.

The warming cycle begins anew on Friday as the high pressure moves
offshore and southerly return flow begins raising our thicknesses
and moisture levels ahead of our next cold front, tentatively
scheduled to race across central NC on Saturday. Highs Friday will
reach low to mid 60s, and further to the mid and upper 60s Saturday.
We will see at least modest shower coverage in the prefrontal
airmass early Saturday and probably a respectable line of convection
accompanying the front later in the day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR Taf Period: Lingering MVFR visbys assoc/w light rain will
affect the RWI terminal through ~19Z. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions with ceilings AOA 5 KFT through at least 21Z. Between 21-
03Z, sct showers/storms are expected to develop along a cold front
progressing through central NC. Any terminal could be affected for a
few hours late this aft/eve, though RDU/FAY/RWI are more likely to
experience convection than INT/GSO, including a potential for isold
severe storms capable of producing sfc wind gusts of 35-50 knots and
quarter to golfball size hail. VFR conditions are expected
everywhere by ~Midnight in the wake of the cold frontal passage.
SSW/SW winds at 5-10 knots this afternoon will veer to the WNW at 10-
15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots in the wake of the front this
evening. Breezy WNW winds will persist overnight, becoming northerly
at 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt by mid/late Sunday morning.

Looking Ahead: VFR conditions will rule Sun/Mon as high pressure
builds over the region in the wake of the front. Sub-VFR conditions
are expected to return Tue/Tue night in assoc/w low ceilings and
rain along/behind a backdoor cold front moving southward through the
region. VFR conditions will return Wed/Thu as strong Mid-Atlantic
high pressure extends southward through the Carolinas. -Vincent

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...Vincent
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
341 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-191945-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
341 PM EDT Sat Mar 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A potent upper level disturbance will dig southeast into the
region late this afternoon and evening as a cold front tracks east
across the Carolinas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop along and ahead of the front. A few storms could become
severe, with a primary threat of quarter size hail and damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
346 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

NCZ083-084-182030-
Richmond NC-Anson NC-
346 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

 ...A strong thunderstorm WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF Richmond and
southern Anson Counties Until 430 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking A strong thunderstorm near
Wadesboro, moving east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockingham, Wadesboro, Hamlet, Hoffman, Polkton, Ellerbe, Dobbins
Heights, Lilesville, Morven and McFarlan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3510 7958 3508 7958 3507 7957 3506 7950
      3504 7946 3499 7957 3494 7959 3491 7956
      3485 7963 3482 7962 3482 7963 3480 7969
      3481 8006 3483 8023 3501 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 271DEG 36KT 3492 8013

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
405 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

NCZ083>085-182045-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Anson NC-
405 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...A cluster of strong thunderstorms will affect portions of
Scotland... southeastern Richmond and southeastern Anson Counties
Until 445 PM EDT...

At 404 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Wadesboro, moving east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Laurinburg, Rockingham, Wadesboro, Hamlet, Hoffman, Dobbins Heights,
Gibson, Lilesville, Morven and East Laurinburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 7954 3480 7968 3481 8004 3482 8009
      3500 8009 3505 7946 3500 7941 3467 7944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 271DEG 41KT 3491 8000

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
452 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             2 W PFAFFTOWN           36.16N 80.34W
03/18/2017  E0.25 INCH       FORSYTH            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON TOLLEY CREEK
            DRIVE.

&&

KDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             2 W PFAFFTOWN           36.15N 80.33W
03/18/2017  E0.25 INCH       FORSYTH            NC   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN PFAFFTOWN.

&&

KDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
517 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

NCZ083-084-182215-
Richmond NC-Anson NC-
517 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...A strong thunderstorm with mostly small hail will affect portions
of Richmond and southern Anson Counties Until 615 PM EDT...

At 515 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster strong
thunderstorm near Wadesboro, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm. The hail may
briefly accumulate on the ground.

Locations impacted include...
Rockingham, Wadesboro, Hamlet, Hoffman, Polkton, Ellerbe, Dobbins
Heights, Lilesville, Morven and Diggs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8029 3503 8022 3511 7958 3508 7958
      3500 7956 3499 7957 3494 7959 3491 7956
      3486 7962 3482 7963 3482 7965 3481 7968
      3485 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 266DEG 22KT 3494 8030

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
519 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

NCZ083-084-182215-
Richmond NC-Anson NC-
519 PM EDT SAT MAR 18 2017

...A cluster of strong thunderstorms with mostly small hail will
affect portions of Richmond and southern Anson Counties Until 615 PM
EDT...

At 515 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Wadesboro, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with these storms. The hail may
briefly accumulate on the ground.

Locations impacted include...
Rockingham, Wadesboro, Hamlet, Hoffman, Polkton, Ellerbe, Dobbins
Heights, Lilesville, Morven and Diggs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8029 3503 8022 3511 7958 3508 7958
      3500 7956 3499 7957 3494 7959 3491 7956
      3486 7962 3482 7963 3482 7965 3481 7968
      3485 8020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 266DEG 22KT 3494 8030

26