Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Raleigh, NC

157 
WWUS52 KRAH 012234
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
634 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

NCC057-012243-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170501T2300Z/
Davidson NC-
634 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved east 
into Randolph county. Therefore the warning for east central 
Davidson county has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
central North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3576 8005 3590 7954 3552 7956 3552 7985
      3551 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 252DEG 52KT 3571 7988 

$$

NCC151-012300-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170501T2300Z/
Randolph NC-
634 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY...

At 633 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Asheboro,
moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Asheboro, Randleman, North Carolina Zoo, Seagrove, Liberty, Ramseur,
Franklinville, Staley, Ulah and Coleridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8005 3590 7954 3552 7956 3552 7985
      3551 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 252DEG 52KT 3571 7988 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VINCENT

844 
WWUS52 KRAH 012245
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

NCC151-012300-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170501T2300Z/
Randolph NC-
645 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY...

At 645 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Asheboro,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Asheboro, Randleman, North Carolina Zoo, Seagrove, Liberty, Ramseur,
Franklinville, Staley, Ulah and Coleridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 7954 3552 7956 3552 7985 3551 7999
      3578 7997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 246DEG 54KT 3568 7977 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VINCENT

231 
WWUS52 KRAH 012250
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
650 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

NCC151-012300-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-170501T2300Z/
Randolph NC-
650 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...

At 650 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles northeast of
North Carolina Zoo, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Asheboro, Randleman, North Carolina Zoo, Seagrove, Liberty, Ramseur,
Franklinville, Staley, Ulah and Coleridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 7954 3552 7956 3552 7991 3580 7989
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 250DEG 57KT 3569 7969 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VINCENT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
303 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area this evening bringing a
chance for showers and storms to the area through the overnight
hours. Behind the front, drier and cooler weather is expected for
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

Event is starting to take shape as the primary line of storms to the
west begins to form ahead of the actual cold front which is now
approaching the TN/NC border. This line of convection extends from
the Florida Panhandle all the way up through Ohio will be the main
player for potential severe wx this afternoon. SPC still maintains
an enhanced risk for severe storms just north and west of the Triad
with all other areas west of US highway 1 in a slight risk. East of
US 1, a marginal risk exists all the way to the coast.

Ahead of the system some areas of low level convergence have led to
a few secondary weak lines of showers out ahead of the system over
the western Piedmont. This could help mitigate some of the
instability and may be a deterring factor for later convection. That
aside, effective shear over the NW Piedmont is approaching 50 kts.
with 20-30 knots of that in the lowest km. There are 300 m2/s2 of 0-
1 km storm relative helicity in place just ahead of the main line of
storms so an isolated spin-up or brief tornado cannot be ruled out,
especially if low level winds can become a little more backed but
for now much of the low level flow appears to be more parallel to
the line.

As much as the shear parameters look good, there are many questions
regarding instability. ML CAPE ahead of the front is only around 500
J/kg at this time and low level lapse rates are weak, although mid-
levels are respectable. A glance at the forecast soundings shows
very long skinny CAPE, indicating that hail is less likely to be a
threat but an 18z special sounding at Greensboro shows a little
better CAPE than expected in the hail growth zone. The best
soundings for severe wx are indeed in the Triad with the most
instability and good shear but a fairly straight hodograph from 0-1
km indicating mostly speed shear. 0-3 km however is nicely curved
indicating the possibility of some rotation aloft with less of a
chance of it reaching the ground. Therefore the biggest threat
remains damaging winds along the line with that threat decreasing as
the line moves eastward and loses heating after sunset.

With the primary line forming east of the front, the CAMs have
caught onto a little faster timing that they were showing this
morning, bringing a line through the Triad late this afternoon and
approaching the Triangle around 00z or shortly afterward. The
convection wraps up in the east between 6-12Z.

QPF values will vary greatly depending where the heaviest cells
occur but expect a quarter to a little over a half of an inch of
rain on average with this system.

As far as temperatures are concerned expect mid to upper 70s for the
highs in the Triad with middle 80s across the east. The low Tuesday
morning will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday and Tuesday night/...
As of 245 PM Monday...

Weak high pressure will build into central NC Tuesday in the wake of
the exiting cold front. A mildly breezy (gusts of 20 to perhaps 25
mph) west wind in conjunction with plentiful sun will lead to
pleasant highs in the mid to upper 70s. It will be a bit cooler than
the past few weeks...from 50 in the Triad to mid 50s across the
southern tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/...
As of 245 PM Monday...

We will remain pleasant mild and dry through Wednesday as the weak
high pressure migrates across the mid Atlantic coast. Highs
Wednesday will range from the mid 70s across the north to lower 80s
in the south, while lows Wednesday night fall into the mid 50s.

A mid level low digging into the mid west and subsequently rotating
into the Ohio Valley will push a cold front east into the mountains
by Thursday afternoon. Cloudiness will spread across the area in
strong low level moisture advection anchored by low level jetting of
50+ knots at H85. Patchy rain/showers will be on the increase from
the west as the day progresses. PoPs will increase to categorical as
a precipitable water plume approaching 2.0 inches surges into
western NC during the evening and shifts east across central NC
overnight. Concurrently, the upper low will be reaching its most
southerly extent, with a 120KT jet lifting into the Ohio Valley to
provide pretty substantial upper diffluence to support strong
convection. The front moves into the coastal plain by Friday
morning, with diminishing PoPs in strong dry slotting ahead of the
upper low. Could see scattered showers across the northern tier on
Friday in strong northwest flow as the upper low pivots north,
otherwise cool air advection wraps around the occluded system, so
highs Friday stall in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The northeast flow resulting from troffing will linger along the
East coast as an omega block sets up and lasts through the weekend.
Unseasonably cool highs will result...mainly in the upper 60s to low
and mid 70s...through Monday. Morning lows will be mostly from 50 to
55, but some upper 40s are possible across the northern tier, and
especially in the Triad.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM Monday...

MVFR ceilings will linger in the west (GSO/INT) until an approaching
cold front moving into the mountains sweeps through late this
afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile, conditions in the east will be
largely VFR outside of convective activity. Scattered showers will
develop in the warm sector ahead of the front after 18Z, with a line
of showers and strong thunderstorms accompanying the front as it
moves east across central NC. There will be a limited (2-3 hour
window) for stronger convection/storms...from 21-23Z at INT/GSO, and
between 23-02Z in the eastern TAF sites. The potential for isolated
severe storms appears highest in vicinity of the Triad terminals,
with lesser potential in the east. Skies will clear quickly behind
the front, with VFR conditions area-wide after 06Z.

Southerly winds will be sustained 12-15 Kts through the evening with
gusts to 25 Kts ahead of the front. After the front passes, we will
have a shift to southwest behind the front, as well as a diminishing
trend to less than 10 Kts after midnight, which will be mainly
westerly tomorrow, increasing to 12-14 Kts and gusting to 20 Kts by
late morning.

Drier and cooler air will provide VFR conditions Tuesday into
Thursday. The next threat for adverse aviation conditions is
expected late Thursday into Friday as our next front approaches.

&&

.Climate...

Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures

May 1 /
Greensboro... 65 (2012)
Raleigh.......67 (2012)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Ellis
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...MLM
CLIMATE...Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
558 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-022200-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
558 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-088-089-022200-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
558 PM EDT Mon May 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
459 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

NCZ021-012200-
Forsyth NC-
459 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of western Forsyth
County Until 600 PM EDT...

At 459 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking A strong thunderstorm over
Huntsville, or 6 miles south of East Bend, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, Clemmons, Huntsville, Lewisville, Rural Hall,
Stanleyville, Pfafftown, Donnaha and Belews Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8051 3612 8046 3614 8044 3617 8044
      3621 8045 3622 8043 3624 8045 3626 8045
      3626 8006 3602 8043 3606 8046 3604 8049
      3605 8051 3609 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 231DEG 46KT 3612 8050

VINCENT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
523 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

NCZ021-022-012200-
Guilford NC-Forsyth NC-
523 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

...A strong thunderstorm will affect portions of northwestern
Guilford and southeastern Forsyth Counties Until 600 PM EDT...

At 522 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking A strong thunderstorm near
Winston-Salem, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, Kernersville, Summerfield, Stokesdale, Walkertown,
Lake Brandt, Sedge Garden, Colfax and Belews Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Doppler radar has indicated weak mid-level rotation within this
storm. If the storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning
may be needed.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8029 3626 8001 3625 7979 3617 7983
      3612 7990 3604 8009 3603 8014 3603 8021
      3601 8024 3602 8028 3605 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 233DEG 28KT 3605 8024

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
548 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE GREENSBORO         36.05N 79.77W
05/01/2017                   GUILFORD           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF I-40 AND US-29.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
616 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S KERNERSVILLE        36.08N 80.08W
05/01/2017                   FORSYTH            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROAD AND POWER LINES.
            CHEVIOT DR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
617 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E MIDWAY              35.99N 80.17W
05/01/2017                   DAVIDSON           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON FRIENDSHIP LEDFORD RD AT KINGS
            LN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
618 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S KERNERSVILLE        36.10N 80.08W
05/01/2017                   FORSYTH            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON ROAD AND POWER LINES.

&&