River Flood Warning 25, NWS Raleigh, NC

462 
WGUS82 KRAH 251346
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
946 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-260146-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170626T0748Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.170625T1348Z.170625T1800Z.170625T1948Z.NO/
946 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  9:15 AM Sunday the stage was 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to rise to near 9.3 feet by this 
  afternoon. The river will then fall below flood stage later this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Neuse River
 Clayton           9   9.0 Sun 09 AM   8.0   7.4   7.5   7.5   7.4


&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-260146-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0026.170625T1930Z-170627T1200Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.170625T1930Z.170626T0600Z.170627T0000Z.NO/
946 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* from this afternoon to Tuesday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  9:15 AM Sunday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by late this 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 15.8 feet by after midnight 
  tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. Water nears the base of the holding tank at the 
  water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  14.1 Sun 09 AM  15.6  14.6  14.4  14.4  14.4


&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

448 
WGUS82 KRAH 251721
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
121 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-251751-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-170626T0748Z/
/CLYN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
121 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At 12:15 PM Sunday the stage was 8.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested at flood stage of 9.0 feet. The 
  river will fall to 7.6 feet by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri

Neuse River
 Clayton           9   8.9 Sun 12 PM   7.6   7.4   7.5   7.5   7.4


&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
345 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push southeastward through central North Carolina,
weakening as it pushes to the coast today. A second cold front will
sweep through the area late Monday, followed by high pressure
building into the area through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

A cold front stretches along the eastern fringe of the Piedmont
early this morning, accompanied by a few weakening showers. This
front will slow as it approaches the coast early this afternoon,
resulting in a small chance of showers in the southern coastal plain
and sandhills through late day. Northwest flow behind the front will
lead to a more stable airmass settling north of the front, but
cooler air will be delayed until tonight, so highs today will reach
the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, as skies clear with the drier airmass
in place, temperatures will fall to the upper 50s in the northwest
to mid 60s in the southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday...

Modestly cooler and drier air will be in place on Monday, making for
a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and highs topping out in the
low to mid 80s. A dry, reinforcing cold front will dip southeast and
through the area Monday night as a long wave trof over the northeast
CONUS amplifies. Continued cool air advection and good radiational
conditions will allow mins to bottom out in the upper 50s to low
60s Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

A longwave trough moving across the East during the beginning of the
long term period will cross the Carolinas late Tues, pushing a cold
front offshore and ushering in high pressure along with a drier and
cooler airmass.  Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that a broken line
of showers and tstms may move across central NC Tues afternoon as
the trough axis approaches and moves through, however the GFS keeps
most of this shower/tstm activity near the coast, while the ECMWF
suggests this possibility across central NC as well. For now, given
the uncertainty, will keep pops Tues afternoon near climo (20-25%).

Dry weather can then be expected Wed-Fri as high pressure transits
the East.  Temps will be near normal Wed as the high moves in and
while overhead, then look for temps and humidity to increase Thu and
Fri as the high moves offshore and S-SW low level flow resumes
across the Carolinas.

Southerly flow will further increase over the weekend in response to
a short wave moving across the Great Lakes region and a sfc front
approaching the Appalachians.  With increases moisture and synop
scale forcing approaching, will bring rain chances back into the
forecast for the weekend, with highest rain chances west of the
Triangle.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Cold front moving east across the area early this morning will be
accompanied by a few showers and a brief IFR threat at RDU/RWI, with
conditions extended through 12-14Z at FAY as the front slows or
stalls across the southeast today. Otherwise, a brief predawn period
of IFR visibilities in fog are possible due to clearing skies and
high low level moisture. Northwest winds 6-8 knots will be prevalent
along with VFR conditions at all sites by 14Z and continue through
the remainder of the TAF period.

Looking beyond Sunday night, VFR conditions are likely to hold
through the upcoming work week. It will be overwhelmingly dry, with
only a few showers expected with passage of a reinforcing cold front
on Tue. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...mlm/Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1050 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-251030-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
1050 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.