Flood Watch 2, NWS Raleigh, NC

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

804 
WGUS62 KRAH 231640
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1240 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...Periods of heavy rain will bring a risk for flooding through 
tonight...

.A very moist air mass in place over central North Carolina
combined with a series of upper level disturbances and a surface
low crossing the area will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain
through tonight. This is expected to result in an 
increasing risk for flooding along smaller streams and creeks,  
and including street flooding in urban and low-lying areas. 

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-240600-
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Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Pfafftown, 
Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Lake Townsend, 
High Point, Burlington, Graham, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Bethesda, 
Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, Louisburg, 
Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah,
Archdale, Trinity, Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, Pittsboro, 
Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, Benson, 
Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Albemarle, Plyler, Troy, 
Biscoe, Mount Gilead, Pekin, Badin Lake, Eldorado, 
Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, 
Cumnock, Gum Springs, Sanford, Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, 
Timberlake, Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Goldsboro, 
Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, Hamlet, East Rockingham, 
Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, Ashley Heights, Raeford, 
Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, and Clinton
1240 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham, 
  Edgecombe, Forsyth, Franklin, Granville, Guilford, Halifax, 
  Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, Orange, 
  Person, Randolph, Richmond, Sampson, Scotland, Stanly, Vance, 
  Wake, Warren, Wayne, and Wilson. 

* Through late tonight

* Heavy rain producing showers and embedded thunderstorms will
  spread across central NC today through this evening. Rainfall
  totals of one to three inches will be common, with localized 
  higher totals in excess of three inches are possible. 

* These high rainfall amounts will produce a threat of flooding, 
  including street flooding and rising water on area creeks, 
  across central North Carolina today through much of tonight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. Monitor later forecasts and be alert for
possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Only 6 to 12 inches of water can float a vehicle. Remember, never
drive through areas where water covers the road. The water may be
much deeper than it appears, and the road beneath could be washed
away or weakened.

&&

$$

817 
WGUS62 KRAH 231902
FFARAH

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
302 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...Two rounds of heavy rain will bring a risk for flooding 
through late Wednesday night...

.A very moist air mass in place over central North Carolina
combined with a series of upper level disturbances and a surface
low crossing the area will bring periods of moderate to heavy
rain tonight and again Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. 
This is expected to result in an increasing risk for flooding 
along smaller streams and creeks, and including street flooding in
urban and low-lying areas.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-240315-
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Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Pfafftown, 
Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Lake Townsend, 
High Point, Burlington, Graham, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Bethesda, 
Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, Louisburg, 
Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah,
Archdale, Trinity, Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, Pittsboro, 
Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, Benson, 
Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Albemarle, Plyler, Troy, 
Biscoe, Mount Gilead, Pekin, Badin Lake, Eldorado, 
Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, 
Cumnock, Gum Springs, Sanford, Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, 
Timberlake, Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Goldsboro, 
Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, Hamlet, East Rockingham, 
Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, Ashley Heights, Raeford, 
Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, and Clinton
302 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham, 
  Edgecombe, Forsyth, Franklin, Granville, Guilford, Halifax, 
  Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, Orange, 
  Person, Randolph, Richmond, Sampson, Scotland, Stanly, Vance, 
  Wake, Warren, Wayne, and Wilson. 

* Through late Wednesday night

* Showers and embedded thunderstorms, some with very heavy
  rainfall, will continue across central North Carolina through
  tonight. A second round of heavy rainfall is likely Wednesday
  afternoon into Wednesday night. Total rainfall amounts of two 
  to four inches are likely, with localized higher amounts 
  possible.

* These high rainfall amounts will produce a threat of flooding,
  including street flooding and rising water on area creeks,
  across central North Carolina into Wednesday night. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. Monitor later forecasts and be alert for
possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Only 6 to 12 inches of water can float a vehicle. Remember, never
drive through areas where water covers the road. The water may be
much deeper than it appears, and the road beneath could be washed
away or weakened.

&&

$$

580 
WGUS62 KRAH 240236
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1036 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...Periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain expected through
Wednesday night...

.A warm front will lift northward into our region Wednesday. This
will occur as a strong spring storm system approaches from the
west. The storm system and associated cold front will surge
through central NC late Wednesday and Wednesday night. 
A very moist air mass in place will help induce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain late Wednesday and Wednesday night. 
Any additional heavy rain that falls on the saturated soils may
lead to rapid runoff and possibly flooding. 

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-241045-
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Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Pfafftown, 
Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Lake Townsend, 
High Point, Burlington, Graham, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Bethesda, 
Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, Louisburg, 
Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah,
Archdale, Trinity, Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, Pittsboro, 
Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, Benson, 
Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Albemarle, Plyler, Troy, 
Biscoe, Mount Gilead, Pekin, Badin Lake, Eldorado, 
Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, 
Cumnock, Gum Springs, Sanford, Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, 
Timberlake, Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Goldsboro, 
Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, Hamlet, East Rockingham, 
Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, Ashley Heights, Raeford, 
Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, and Clinton
1036 PM EDT Tue May 23 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham, 
  Edgecombe, Forsyth, Franklin, Granville, Guilford, Halifax, 
  Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, Orange, 
  Person, Randolph, Richmond, Sampson, Scotland, Stanly, Vance, 
  Wake, Warren, Wayne, and Wilson. 

* Through late Wednesday night

* Although a rather brief lull in the widespread showers and
  thunderstorms may occur overnight, additional showers and
  thunderstorms will return Wednesday afternoon and night across
  the region. This additional activity will fall on ground that is
  already saturated from recent rains. An additional 1 to 2 inches
  of rain, with locally 2.5 inches in 3 hours or less may occur
  Wednesday afternoon and night as a warm front lifts over the
  region, followed by a cold front that is expected to push from
  west to east through central NC on Wednesday night. 

* If training of thunderstorms or excessive rainfall rates occur
  on the saturated ground, flash flooding may occur rapidly. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. Monitor later forecasts and be alert for
possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. 

If flood warnings are issued, remember that it only takes 6 to 12
inches of rapidly flowing water to float a vehicle. Remember, 
never drive through areas where water covers the road. The water 
may be much deeper than it appears, and the road beneath could be 
washed away or weakened.

&&

$$

Badgett

607 
WGUS62 KRAH 240906
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
506 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...Periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain expected
through tonight...

.A warm front will lift northward into our region today, followed
by a passage of a cold front from west to east tonight. Scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain 
are expected today, especially this afternoon through this
evening. This additional rain falling on saturated soils may lead
to rapid runoff and possibly flooding.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-242200-
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/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Pfafftown, 
Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Lake Townsend, 
High Point, Burlington, Graham, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Bethesda, 
Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, Louisburg, 
Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah,
Archdale, Trinity, Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, Pittsboro, 
Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, Benson, 
Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Albemarle, Plyler, Troy, 
Biscoe, Mount Gilead, Pekin, Badin Lake, Eldorado, 
Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, 
Cumnock, Gum Springs, Sanford, Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, 
Timberlake, Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Goldsboro, 
Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, Hamlet, East Rockingham, 
Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, Ashley Heights, Raeford, 
Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, and Clinton
506 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham, 
  Edgecombe, Forsyth, Franklin, Granville, Guilford, Halifax, 
  Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, Orange, 
  Person, Randolph, Richmond, Sampson, Scotland, Stanly, Vance, 
  Wake, Warren, Wayne, and Wilson. 

* Through late tonight. 

* Scattered to numerous showers and storms will bring a threat of
  locally heavy rainfall today into tonight. As recent rains have
  produced saturated soils across the area, any additional heavy
  rainfall may lead to rapid runoff and flooding. Quick rises on 
  creeks are also possible. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is
  expected today through tonight, with locally higher totals of 2
  to 3 inches possible, particularly in locations that see 
  showers and storms move repeatedly over the same area.

* Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding, especially in urban and
  poor drainage areas. Rapid rises on creeks and flooding of
  drainage ditches are also possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. Monitor later forecasts and be alert for
possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

It only takes 6 to 12 inches of rapidly flowing water to float a 
vehicle. Remember, never drive through areas where water covers 
the road. The water may be much deeper than it appears, and the 
road beneath could be washed away or weakened.

&&

$$

227 
WGUS62 KRAH 241832
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...Periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms with heavy 
rain expected through tonight...

.A warm front will continue to lift northward into our region 
this afternoon and evening, followed by a passage of a cold front
from west to east tonight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms 
with locally heavy rain are expected today, especially this 
afternoon through this evening. This additional rain falling on 
saturated soils may lead to rapid runoff and possibly flooding.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-250700-
/O.CON.KRAH.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170525T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Pfafftown, 
Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Lake Townsend, 
High Point, Burlington, Graham, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Bethesda, 
Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, Louisburg, 
Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah,
Archdale, Trinity, Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, Pittsboro, 
Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, Benson, 
Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Albemarle, Plyler, Troy, 
Biscoe, Mount Gilead, Pekin, Badin Lake, Eldorado, 
Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, 
Cumnock, Gum Springs, Sanford, Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, 
Timberlake, Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Goldsboro, 
Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, Hamlet, East Rockingham, 
Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, Ashley Heights, Raeford, 
Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, and Clinton
232 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central North Carolina, including the following 
  areas, Alamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson, Durham, 
  Edgecombe, Forsyth, Franklin, Granville, Guilford, Halifax, 
  Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Lee, Montgomery, Moore, Nash, Orange, 
  Person, Randolph, Richmond, Sampson, Scotland, Stanly, Vance, 
  Wake, Warren, Wayne, and Wilson. 

* Through late tonight

* Numerous showers and storms will bring a threat of locally heavy
  rainfall through tonight. As recent rains have produced 
  saturated soils across the area, any additional heavy rainfall 
  may lead to rapid runoff and flooding. Quick rises on creeks are
  also possible. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected 
  today through tonight, with locally higher totals of 2 to 3 
  inches possible, particularly in locations that see showers and 
  storms move repeatedly over the same area. 

* Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding, especially in urban and 
  poor drainage areas. Rapid rises on creeks and flooding of 
  drainage ditches are also possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. Monitor later forecasts and be alert for
possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

It only takes 6 to 12 inches of rapidly flowing water to float a
vehicle. Remember, never drive through areas where water covers
the road. The water may be much deeper than it appears, and the
road beneath could be washed away or weakened.

&&

$$

345 
WGUS62 KRAH 250052
FFARAH

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
852 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...Flood Watch Canceled for Central North Carolina...

.The threat for excessive rainfall is rapidly diminishing across
central NC. Thus the Flood Watch has been canceled. Pockets of
locally heavy rainfall associated with heavier showers and
thunderstorms are still possible into the overnight though 
widespread flooding issues are not expected.


NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-250200-
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Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Pfafftown, 
Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Lake Townsend, 
High Point, Burlington, Graham, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Bethesda, 
Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, Louisburg, 
Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah,
Archdale, Trinity, Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, Pittsboro, 
Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, Benson, 
Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Albemarle, Plyler, Troy, 
Biscoe, Mount Gilead, Pekin, Badin Lake, Eldorado, 
Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, 
Cumnock, Gum Springs, Sanford, Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, 
Timberlake, Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Goldsboro, 
Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, Hamlet, East Rockingham, 
Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, Ashley Heights, Raeford, 
Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, and Clinton
852 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for a portion of central North Carolina has been
cancelled. The threat for excessive rainfall is rapidly diminishing across
central NC.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
310 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will cross central NC through mid-
week, causing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Improving
weather conditions are anticipated by late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /today through tonight/...
As of 310 AM Tuesday...

...Flood watch in effect today through this evening...

Coverage of showers and embedded storms has fallen to a relative
minimum early this morning, however slow-moving convective cells
with 1-2"/hr rates have produced pockets of high totals over parts
of the Piedmont in the last several hours. Areas of showers and
storms will continue to spread over central NC from the SW through
the day, as mid level perturbations track northeastward in the
cyclonic flow around an expansive low centered over MN/IA and
covering much of the central/eastern CONUS. The surface pattern is
quite messy this morning, muddied by subtle synoptic-scale features
and convectively-induced boundaries and mesoscale highs within a
light low-level flow. There appears to be two main dewpoint
discontinuities, one just NW of the forecast area and another to the
south across central GA and central SC. PW values along and south of
the latter frontal zone are close to daily record values, and these
(as well as the front itself) are expected to surge northward into
central/eastern NC through the day. Forecast soundings continue to
depict a deep saturated warm layer (LCL-0C of nearly 4 km) over
central NC later today, favoring warm rain processes, and the
initial weak flow will lead to slow-moving and poorly organized
cells through this morning, until the steering flow picks up a bit
toward midday. Most models with both parameterized and explicit
convection generate areas of heavy rainfall totals today through
this evening, although they differ on location, likely a function of
the murky and diffuse surface pattern and resultant variations in
low level mass convergence that are tipping the scales to heavy rain
production. With the high water content and strengthening deep layer
forcing for ascent as the most prominent mid level wave tracks NE
through the Carolinas today, expect likely to categorical pops
areawide today, with a risk of high rain totals and pockets of
flooding possible anywhere. Based on the pace of movement of the
rain area now extending back across GA/AL and southern MS and the
model projections of the movement of the upper divergence maxima
across the Carolinas today, expect the peak threat of flooding rains
to occur late morning through mid afternoon, gradually tapering down
and pushing to our ENE this evening. Will issue a flood watch in
effect from 5 am this morning until 2 am tonight, with storm total
amounts of 1-3" likely and locally higher totals probable. Will
taper down pops west to east tonight as the mid level wave and upper
jet core shift to our NE, although a moist and stable pool overnight
will lead to lingering areas of drizzle and thick stratus. Temps
have a high error potential today, as any amount of sunshine in the
SE CWA could send readings soaring. Will go with highs from the
upper 60s NW to the upper 70s SE. Lows tonight 58-65. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /  /...
As of 340 PM Monday...

To be updated.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

The upper-air pattern at the beginning of the long term period
features a high amplitude trough extending southwesterly from
the Great Lakes into the MS Valley with an embedded close low
centered near MO/IL. The upper trough axis will slide east on
Thursday and take on an increasingly negative tilt with both the
GFS and EC moving the long wave trough axis off the mid-
Atlantic coast by 12 UTC Friday. The southwesterly flow ahead of
the trough strengthens with 75 to 85kts progged at 500 mb over
the eastern Carolinas early Thursday. While NWP guidance is
similar in the large scale pattern there are differences in some
smaller scale features that will play an important role in the
forecast details.

At the surface, the pattern is rather complex with an existing
weak CAD wedge in place across central NC on Wednesday morning
with dew points in the upper 50s near the VA border and the
upper 60s in the southern Coastal Plain. Guidance is probably
too aggressive in driving the warm sector northward to the VA
border by mid-afternoon, a more reasonable approach would lift
the wedge front more slowly, eventually reaching the VA
Wednesday evening as a surface low develops along the front in
upstate SC Wednesday evening and moves to southwestern VA
Thursday morning. A trailing cold front will then sweep east
across the Carolinas and Virginia Thursday morning.

Given the strong forcing for ascent ahead of the upper trough, low-
level warm advection, localized ascent with the wedge front and then
the cold front along with precipitable water values climbing in
excess of 1.75 inches, another robust precipitation event is
expected Wednesday morning through midday Thursday with general
rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches with localized amounts in
excess of 2 inches. Currently SPC has our region outlooked in
general thunder and a marginal severe weather risk for the
Wednesday and Wednesday night period. Initially, the severe
weather risk should be confined to the southeast portion of the
area but as the warm sector expands north and with the strong
low to mid level flow producing 0-6km bulk shear values in
excess of 40-50kts with a weak to perhaps borderline moderately
unstable air mass. An expanding severe weather threat is
expected, initially in proximity of the wedge front and then
ahead of the advancing cold front.

The significant precipitation should be over by Thursday but
scattered showers and possibly some storms are expected ahead of
the upper trough that will be located near the Appalachians.
The combination of a relatively moist environment combined with
steep low- level lapse rates should support scattered convection
and fairly widespread cumulus field. All of the precipitation
should end late Thursday night as the air mass stabilizes and
larger scale subsidence develops. Dry weather is expected on
Friday and Friday night.

The pattern becomes less clear over the weekend as troughiness
begins to develop over the mid and upper MS valley and a warm front
lifts north across the region on Saturday and then stalls near or
just north of NC for late Saturday and Sunday. A limited threat of
convection persists into Monday but confidence in the forecast over
the end of the holiday weekend is limited.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be muted by cloud cover and
precipitation and modulated by the placement of the warm front.
Highs should range around 70 in the Triad to around 80 across
the southeast. Highs should moderate into the upper 70s to lower
80s on Friday and the mid to possibly upper 80s on Saturday
through Monday. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Saturday/...
As of 1255 AM Tuesday...

Lower than usual confidence this morning. Aviation conditions
currently vary from VFR at INT/RDU/RWI to MVFR at GSO and IFR at
FAY, and this variation will continue through 09z this morning,
after which time we should see a trend to prevailing MVFR/IFR at
INT/GSO/RDU and perhaps RWI, with MVFR to VFR conditions at FAY this
morning. A large area of showers and isolated storms is expected to
spread over central NC throughout the day, lasting into the evening,
and a trend back down to prevailing IFR conditions are anticipated
at all sites by late morning, with low cigs and occasional MVFR to
IFR vsbys in heavy rain. Unfortunately, details regarding the
specific timing of this heavy rain and storms is uncertain, but we
do have confidence in poor aviation conditions dominating through
tonight, as low (mainly IFR) cigs are expected to persist overnight
even as the heavier rain departs from west to east between 00z and
06z. A surface front oriented SW to NE across central NC will hold
in place today as low pressure tracks northeastward along it,
leading to erratic winds at central NC terminals, mainly from the
SE/S shifting to SW at FAY, and mainly from the NE elsewhere through
tonight.

Looking beyond 06z late tonight/early Wed morning, adverse aviation
conditions are likely to hold Wed through Wed night as a deep mid
level trough and surface cold front approach from the west, bringing
another round of heavy showers and a few potentially strong
thunderstorms. Improvement to mostly VFR is expected Thu, although
scattered afternoon showers generating MVFR conditions are possible.
VFR conditions should return for Fri/Sat as a weak high pressure
ridge extends into the area. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
349 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-230930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
349 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Locally heavy rainfall will occur with scattered strong
thunderstorms through this evening, and with an expanding area of
showers after 2 AM tonight. Minor street flooding may occur where
storms cross urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Moderate to heavy rain associated with showers and a few
thunderstorms is possible Tuesday and Wednesday, with storm total
rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches likely, with locally heavier
amounts probable. Flooding of low lying and urban areas is possible,
along with rapid rises on area creeks.

A few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon,
primarily along and east of I-95, and again Wednesday afternoon and
evening across most of central NC. The main severe weather hazards
will be damaging straight line winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday. Spotters are
encouraged to report rainfall amounts in excess of two inches.