Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017

An upper level ridge will be centered over UT today and tonight.  A
disturbance that is passing over NE this morning, will send a front
into southeast CO later this morning, bringing some gusty northeast
winds and low level upslope thru the afternoon.  The NAM, HRRR and
GFS show isold pcpn in the afternoon hours, over and near the higher
terrain, with dry conditions over the southeast plains.  Temps today
are expected to be around average, with highs mostly in the 80s acrs
the southeast plains, and in the 70s in the San Luis and Upper
Arkansas River Valleys.

The GFS show the potential for some isold pcpn acrs the southeast
corner of the state this evening, and keeps some pcpn going along
and near the eastern mtns thru the night.  The NAM is similar but
doesn't have quite as much overnight pcpn as the GFS.  It also looks
like there will be low stratus and some patchy fog late tonight and
into Mon morning acrs much of the southeast plains, so will increase
cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Extended range models are remaining consistent from day to day, with
little change to the long term forecast needed.

Monday through Wednesday...Upper level high pressure will remain in
place across the Great Basin through Wednesday. Colorado will
continue to experience north to northwesterly flow aloft, and
limited available moisture. Expect isolated to low-end scattered
pops each afternoon and eve, mainly tied to the higher terrain but
potentially spilling over onto the immediately adjacent plains. Max
temps are forecast to climb into the upper 70s and 80s for the high
valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the eastern plains.

Thursday through Saturday...A shortwave will cross the Pacific NW
late Wednesday, then the Rockies on Thursday. This will flatten the
ridge slightly to the south over the desert sw, producing more of a
west to northwesterly flow aloft for the state. There will be a
slightly better chance for convection Friday, with a higher
probability of the activity to push east off the higher terrain due
to the steering flow. High temps will see little change, and should
remain in the upper 70s and 80s for the high valleys, and 80s to
around 90F for the eastern plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at KALS.
Winds will be light.

VFR conditions are anticipated today through early tonight at
KPUB an dKCOS. Later tonight moist upslope flow will bring a layer
of low cigs into both taf sites. This low cig should last into
mid to late morning tomorrow. Current gusty winds at KCOS and KPUB
will gradually veer and lessen as the afternoon progresses.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-281730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1124 AM MDT Sun Aug 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening,
mainly over and near the higher terrain.  However, the I-25 corridor
counties and the southeast corner of the state could see some
isolated storms this evening. The main risks from storms today will
be lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph.  However, some of
the stronger storms could also produce brief heavy rainfall and
small hail up to 1/2 inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There will be daily chances for thunderstorms, mainly over and
near the higher terrain. The main risks with storms will be
lightning and gusty outflow winds, but some of the stronger storms
could produce locally heavy rainfall and small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible over and near the higher terrain, and over some of the
southeast plains this afternoon and evening.

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
211 PM MDT SUN AUG 27 2017

COZ062-063-069-072-073-076-077-272045-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft CO-
211 PM MDT SUN AUG 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHAFFEE...WESTERN
FREMONT AND NORTH CENTRAL SAGUACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 210 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waugh Mountain, or 54 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving south at
10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Salida, Texas Creek, Howard, Coaldale, Waugh Mountain, Swissvale and
Cotopaxi.

LAT...LON 3855 10602 3867 10557 3834 10542 3828 10594
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 354DEG 9KT 3854 10575

Hodanish