Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
251 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will be found mostly from around the I-25
corridor and westward this evening.  However, the HRRR does show
some isold pcpn being possible over some of the southeast plains.
Most of the pcpn is expected to end by midnight, but as a weather
disturbance moves northeastward through NM tonight and into southern
CO Mon morning, there could be some additional showers moving into
southern CO late tonight and into Mon morning.  Much of the pcpn
associated with the disturbance is expected to be near the southern
CO border, with the best chances probably acrs eastern Las Animas
and Baca counties.

Mon afternoon, showers and tstms are expected to develop over and
near the higher terrain, and along the I-25 corridor, while much of
the southeast plains is expected to be dry.  Temps on Mon are
expected to be a little cooler than today.

There is a lot of cloud cover that is expected to continue working
its way northward over CO tonight and into early Mon.  However, at
this time it appears that some drier air may work its way into
southern CO later in the morning to bring a decrease in the cloud
cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the extended
period. Active weather looks likely through the middle part of the
work week before drying out towards the weekend.

Monday night...expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to be
ongoing across much of southern Colorado Monday evening, spreading
east across the Plains and dissipating late overnight. Models in
good agreement with a cold front dropping south behind an upper
disturbance late Monday night into Tuesday morning turning flow
northeasterly in the low levels.

Tuesday through Thursday...a weak upper level disturbance over
southern California will combine with high pressure over New
Mexico to force moisture and energy northward over Utah into
Colorado through the middle of the week. At the low levels, flow
looks northeasterly upslope on Tuesday, transitioning to
southeasterly upslope Wednesday and Thursday. The increased
moisture, disturbances aloft and upslope flow at the surface will
set the stage for potentially widespread showers and thunderstorms
across the region. Initial development is forecast over the
mountains, spreading east across the Plains through the late
afternoon and overnight hours. Main threats will be locally heavy
rainfall and lightning, but small hail and gusty outflow winds may
also be possible with stronger cores. Flash flooding may be
possible on area burn scars and over urban areas prone to
flooding. These will need to be monitored closely. Temperatures
will be cooler with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s
through this period.

Friday through Sunday...high pressure is forecast build northward
over the Great Basin while an upper trough takes shape over the
Ohio Valley. This will force flow aloft across Colorado out of the
northwest. Drier air will move into the area on Friday which will
limit thunderstorm development with more isolated activity
generally over the mountains. By Saturday and Sunday, much will
depend on how much moisture and energy move over the upper ridge
to the west and drops south across Colorado. Models hinting that
Saturday could see more widespread thunderstorm activity,
including possibly strong to severe, but this is a long ways out.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs.  There will be the
possibility of showers/tstms at KCOS, KPUB and KALS this evening,
and then again Mon afternoon, although KCOS should see a better
chance than the other sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1119 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-211730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1119 AM MDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible, with most of the activity from the I-25 corridor and
westward, and along the southern border. A few thunderstorms could
continue into the late night hours along the southern border
areas. The primary storm threat will be lightning and wind gusts
up to 50 mph. However, some of the stronger storms could also
produce small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each day,
with thunderstorms most numerous across the mountains each
afternoon and evening. The main threats from thunderstorms will
be lightning, locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and erratic
gusty winds up to 50 mph. Locally heavy rainfall could result in
flash flooding in and near burn scars should these areas be
directly impacted.

There will be the risk of a strong to severe storm or two over
the southeast mountains and plains on Wednesday with hail up to
the size of quarters and wind gusts to around 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible across southern Colorado this afternoon and evening.

28/28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 PM MDT SUN AUG 20 2017

COZ081-082-202215-
Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
346 PM MDT SUN AUG 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TELLER AND WEST CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 345 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Florissant, or 24 miles west of Colorado Springs, moving east at 25
mph.

Lightning and winds in excess of 40 mph will occur with this storm.
There could also be some small hail.

Locations impacted include...
Florissant, Divide and Pikes Peak.

LAT...LON 3879 10498 3878 10531 3882 10533 3897 10533
      3905 10514
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 253DEG 21KT 3890 10528

28