Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
320 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

...A Little Less Storm Coverage This Evening...

A little less moisture covers the area this evening.  Total
Precipitable Water values estimated by satellite indicate generally
90-115 percent of average, down from 120-140 percent of average
yesterday at this time.  So this should decrease the overall storm
coverage.  However, there is still a shortwave making its way
eastward across the Rockies that is triggering storms at this time.
This shortwave will still manage to kick off some storms through the
evening.  High res models have things picking up during the evening,
particularly over the Pikes Peak Region and plains, possibly staying
active through late evening.  And, because there is more heat and
better shear today, a few of those cells could be on the strong to
possibly severe side during the evening hours.  The primary risks
with most storms this evening will be locally heavy rain, wind gusts
to around 50 mph and lightning.  However, a couple of storms across
the plains could produce quarters and 60 mph winds.  Overnight into
early Thursday, areas of low clouds and fog could develop over parts
of the area, particularly through the lower Arkansas River Valley.

For tomorrow, most of the day will be rather quiet with only
isolated storm activity.  However, late in the day, a boundary will
drop south to near the Palmer Divide.  This boundary will be the
focus for potential severe weather into Thursday evening.  The Storm
Prediction Center currently has a large portion of the plains under
a slight risk for severe weather Thursday.  This makes perfect sense
in light of the boundary that is expected to move through.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Thursday night-Friday night...Upper high across the Southern Rockies
and into the Desert Southwest keeps west to northwest flow aloft
across the region. Latest models continue to indicate an embedded
shortwave translating across the Northern Rockies and into the
Northern High Plains Thursday afternoon, which sends a cold front
across the Eastern Plains of Colorado Thursday evening and night.
With low level moisture pooling along and behind the front, the
boundary will be a focus for convection through the evening. Models
are indicating CAPES of 1000-1500 j/kg and shears in excess of 40
kts across the eastern plains, which would support the development of
supercell thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds across much of the southeastern plains tomorrow
evening. Models indicating storms congealing into an MCS across the
far southeast plains late tomorrow night, which then continues into
southwestern Kansas through early Friday morning. Will see moist
upslope flow across the eastern Colorado through the day Friday,
with morning stratus and patchy fog likely keeping the plains too
stable through the afternoon. Further west, expecting another round
of afternoon and evening storms to fire, with storms moving east
southeast across the immediate adjacent plains through the late
afternoon and evening, with a few possible showers surviving across
the far southeast plains through the late evening. Will again have
to watch for the potential for flash flooding on Friday, especially
over and near area burn scars, with possible training of storms.
Temperatures through this period will remain below seasonal levels.

Saturday-Wedensday...Models continue to suggest the cool northwest
flow pattern will persist into early next week, with several more
embedded waves digging across the area. Pattern will remain
favorable for daily convection, though hard to time features will
likely play a role in determining where convection and the heaviest
precipitation will occur. Temperatures look to slowly warm into
early next week, though will generally remain below seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

Convection will tend to be less widespread this evening than last
evening as a little drier airmass covers the region. MVFR to LIFR
CIGS and VSBYS will be possible through areas of precip. Primary
storm threats will include heavy rain, wind gusts to around 50 mph,
pea size hail and lightning. Overnight tonight into early Thursday,
some areas of MVFR to LIFR CIGS and VSBYS could develop across the
plains, particularly through the lower Arkansas River Valley.

The KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals could see storms at or near the
terminals this evening.  That threat could linger until around 3 or
4 UTC at KALS and to around 5 or 6 UTC at KCOS and KPUB.  Low clouds
and ceilings could possibly impact the KCOS and KPUB sites from
roughly 9 to 15 UTC, although this is not certain.

For tomorrow, storms will be pretty isolated for most of the day.
However, late in the day, a boundary will approach the Palmer Divide
from the north and then move south through the plains.  This will
lead to much more widespread storm coverage across the plains into
Thursday evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
600 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-110000-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
600 PM MDT Wed Aug 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms be possible through the
evening. The primary risks with most storms today will be heavy
rain, wind gusts to around 50 mph and lightning. Some of the
stronger storms may also produce hail.  Flash flooding will be
possible, particularly on burn scars and urban areas. One or two
storms over the eastern plains could become severe this evening,
producing quarter size hail and wind gusts to around 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be daily chances of thunderstorms across the area
through Tuesday, with the greatest coverage of storms expected to
be over and near the higher terrain. The main threats from storms
will be lightning and locally heavy rain, with the potential for
flash flooding, especially across area burn scars. Small hail and
gusty outflow winds will also be possible with a few of the stronger
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening across southeast and south
central Colorado.

28/28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
627 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

COZ085-086-100100-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
627 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL EL PASO AND NORTH
CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

At 625 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Pinon, or 19 miles north of Pueblo, moving southeast
at 30 mph.

Heavy rain, small hail up to 1/2 inch in diameter and wind gusts up
to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hanover and open county of southeastern El Paso and north central
Pueblo County.

LAT...LON 3854 10469 3864 10461 3857 10423 3837 10436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 300DEG 27KT 3855 10457

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
632 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

COZ088-100045-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
632 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

At 632 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Model, or 16 miles northeast of Trinidad, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Model.

LAT...LON 3720 10433 3738 10438 3749 10407 3721 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 255DEG 24KT 3731 10427

28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
656 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

COZ088-094-100115-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
656 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM MDT...

At 656 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Model, or 25 miles northeast of Trinidad, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Las Animas
County.

LAT...LON 3724 10415 3741 10422 3755 10389 3729 10378
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 251DEG 23KT 3736 10411

28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
708 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

COZ088-094-100130-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
708 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM MDT...

At 708 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Tyrone, or 30 miles northeast of Trinidad, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Las Animas
County.

LAT...LON 3727 10407 3744 10415 3758 10383 3733 10371
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 249DEG 21KT 3739 10403

28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
723 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

COZ076-077-081-083-100145-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
723 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM MDT...

At 721 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canon City, or 31 miles southwest of Colorado Springs, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Heavy rain, small hail up to 1/2 inch in diameter and winds in
excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florence, Royal Gorge, Canon City and Penrose.

LAT...LON 3847 10536 3861 10528 3856 10495 3827 10504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 299DEG 33KT 3851 10524

mw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
736 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

COZ086-100200-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
736 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM MDT...

At 735 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles southwest of Fowler, or 28 miles southeast of Pueblo, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Pueblo
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 10442 3803 10435 3804 10407 3774 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 296DEG 30KT 3794 10429

mw