Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
337 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Currently, isolated areas of showers and storms were across the
mountains, high valleys and I-25 corridor. Locally heavy rain totals
have occurred from Security to southern Pueblo County.

Tonight, isolated to scattered showers and storms will persist into
the early evening hours, with not nearly the amount of coverage of
recent days due to the atmospheric column drying out some.
Precipitation should shutoff later evening, according to short term
models. There may be some patchy fog due to high surface moisture
and plenty of clear skies tonight. With drier air, valleys across
northern portions of the area should see a cooler night then the
past several with Leadville dropping into the upper 30s. Elsewhere,
not much change though from the past few days, though perhaps a
degree or two cooler with less cloud cover.  -

Tuesday, models indicating even less moisture to work with, so
mainly isolated showers and storms.  With more sunshine, high
temperatures will ggenerally be a category higher than today with
80s across the plains, 60s and 70s high valleys, and 50s and 60s
mountains. Little or no risk for severe storms, and flood potential
will be quite low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Tuesday night-Wedensday...Upper high persists across the Desert
Southwest and Great Basin, with continued drier air moving into the
region within northerly flow aloft. There will be enough moisture to
support isolated to scattered showers and storms through the
afternoon and evening  hours, with storms ending through the
late evening. The best coverage will be over and near the higher
terrain, with the more northerly steering flow aloft keeping most
storms west of the I-25 corridor. Temperatures look to warm slightly
through the period, though with all the recent moisture, will still
be below seasonal levels.

Wednesday night-Friday...Models continue to indicate a broad upper
trough developing across the Upper Midwest and into the Central
CONUS, with a short wave digging across the Upper Midwest Wednesday
night and Thursday. Passing wave sends a front across Eastern
Colorado, through early Thursday, with moisture pooling along and
behind the front owning to increased chances of storms across the
eastern plains Wednesday night, and across the eastern mountains and
immediate adjacent plains on Thursday. Could be training storms
across the higher terrain, especially the eastern mountains,
Thursday afternoon and evening, with flash flooding potential
increasing once again, especially for area burn scars. Temperatures
through this period continue to look below seasonal levels,
especially across the plains, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Saturday-Monday...Upper high slowly builds east into the eastern
Great Basin, with enough moisture in place to support mainly diurnal
isolated to scattered storms across the area into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 337 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

VFR conditions expected at KALS, KCOS and KPUB tonight, with the
exception of some light fog at ALS in the early morning hours
beginning around 09Z. Tuesday, it may not even be worthy of VCTS in
the afternoon, due to the isolated nature of the convection, so VFR
at all terminals prevailing.

TSRA and locally gusty winds up to 40 kts would be the primary storm
threats through this evening.  Otherwise, expect clearing skies
overnight with light diurnally driven winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...TM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1130 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-011730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1130 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area
this afternoon. The main risks with thunderstorms will be locally
heavy rainfall and lightning. Some small hail up to 1/2 inch in
diameter and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be likely with the
stronger storms. Although the risk for flash flooding will be less
than during the past few days, flash flooding could still occur
if heavy rain falls on burn scars, urban areas or locations with
already saturated soil conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. At
this time, the greatest potential for more widespread
precipitation will be from later Wednesday into Thursday night,
and again during the weekend. The stronger storms will be capable
of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding, lightning,
small hail and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening across south central and
southeast Colorado.

13/13

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
453 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

COZ081-084-085-312315-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
453 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 451 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Colorado Springs to Rush, with the strongest
storms near Ellicott and Yoder. Movement was south at 15 mph.

Heavy rain, small pea sized inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph
will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Fountain, Truckton, Yoder, Ellicott, Schriever AFB,
Security, Security-Widefield, Stratmoor, Fort Carson, Peterson AFB,
Cimarron Hills and Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 10405 3866 10406 3867 10488 3892 10484
      3892 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 359DEG 15KT 3887 10479 3885 10407

mw