Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
317 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Currently...

Weak, broad closed low at mid levels was noted just east of the
Gunnison region at 2 pm this afternoon. Most abundant shower
activity was generally in this region, although scattered to
numerous showers was noted over a large part of the mountainous area
of southern Colorado. Storms were also just beginning to develop
over parts of the plains, mainly along the I-25 corridor and along a
sfc trough axis that extended from near Branson CO northeastward
towards the Lamar region.

Moisture was abundant over the entire region. SPC analysis ranged
from 1.5 to 1.0 g/kg over the plains (with the bette moisture near
the border). Values of 0.5 - 1.0 were noted over the higher terrain.
CAPE values ranged between 500-1000 J/KG.

Rest of today into tonight...

Deep, albeit weak, upslope flow will continue through the afternoon
and evening as the broad weak closed low moves slowly east-northeast.
Conceptually, areas generally east of US-50 should see the highest
risk of heavy convective rains the rest of this afternoon and into
the evening. This would place the Junkins/Hayden and Waldo burn scars
in the highest risk for flash flooding. HRRR hints at locally heavy
rain these regions.

As the low lifts off the east-northeast, southwesterly flow at 700
develops later this evening south of US-50, with southeast 700 mb
low north of us50. This will allow a trough axis to extend
generally to the east of the 500 low, and this may be the region
where the best chance of rain will develop later this evening on the
plains.

by later tonight, the broad mid level low should be over the greater
Limon region. Most precip will likely dissipate over the region
later tonight but some showers will likely continue in the vicinity
of the low center.

Lots of clouds will linger over the region tonight.

Tomorrow...

Monsoon moisture will remain over the region tomorrow. Several weak
disturbance are noted in the guidance products so anticipate
scattered to numerous showers and storm once again in the mountains
with scattered POPs over the plains. With abundant moisture, locally
heavy rains will continue to be a threat over the region. Guidance
does show that quite a bit of moisture will be over the plains, so
we could see more widespread activity over this region. \/Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...Drier over the Plains but Monsoon Still Active over the Mountains
Sunday through Friday...

The monsoon will take a bit of a breather over the plains Sunday
through Friday but remain fairly active over the mountains through
the period.  It looks like the monsoonal "depression" that is
swirling over us today and will continue to do so through Saturday,
moves primarily east of Colorado Sunday, allowing some drier air to
move into the state.  There will still be adequate moisture for
daily convection over and near the mountains each day, but it looks
like quite a bit less activity over the plains in the presence of
the drier air.  Still some isolated activity but not the widespread
stuff that will be with us through Saturday.  So, a drier period for
the plains.  The mountains will remain active through the period,
still remaining on the eastern edge of the monsoonal moisture flow.
The combination of daily heating and lifting from the terrain should
be enough to produce daily rounds of slow moving, pulse convection.
Primary concerns will continue to be heavy rain, lightning and gusty
winds with some spots of mainly small hail.  And, of course, with
slow moving, heavy rain producing storms, there will be the
potential for flash flooding, particularly on area burn scars.  We
will need to remain especially cognizant of the flash flood risk for
the next 6-8 weeks as we move through the monsoon season.  This time
of year lends itself to repeated days of heavy rain over the same
locations and very efficient rainfall runoff processes i.e. less
evaporation and infiltration and more direct runoff.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Deep monsoon moisture is over the region. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms will be likely during the afternoon and evening
hours at the 3 taf sites; kpub, kals and kcos. If one of these
storms moves over the terminals, the brief mvfr.ifr conditions will
be possible along with gusty winds. In addition, if a storm does
drop quite a bit of rain over the terminal, then some morning low
clouds/fog will also be possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1116 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-151730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1116 AM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An active monsoonal plume will allow scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to occur across the region today. The
overall best chance of storms will be over the mountains,
especially the central mountains and Sangre De Cristo mountains.
Over the plains, the best chance of storms will be over El Paso
county.

The primary storm risks will be heavy rain, which will be capable
of generating localized flash flooding, especially over area burn
scars. Flash flooding may also occur in urban locations. In
addition, some of the more intense storms will be capable of
producing hail up to the size of nickels as well as localized wind
gusts of around 50 mph.

All storms will produce dangerous cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The mountains and high valleys will see scattered to widespread
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening for the entire period.
The southeast plains will see scattered thunderstorms Saturday,
with isolated storms on Sunday. Drier conditions are expected over
the plains Monday through Wednesday, but the I-25 corridor could
see some isolated storms. Lightning and locally heavy rainfall
will be the main storm threats, with a risk of flash flooding
over urban areas and across recent burn scars. Gusty outflow
winds of up to 50 mph and small hail will also be possible with
any stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and tonight across all of south central
and southeast Colorado.

Hodanish

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