Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
806 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Updated/refreshed forecast grids/zones to add Baca county to
severe thunderstorm watch #380(which is in effect until 9 PM MDT
this evening) and also allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Currently...An isolated severe thunderstorm was nearing western
Kiowa county, with strong to severe thunderstorm(s) expected to
continue over the next few hours. Elsewhere, generally dry
conditions are anticipated with late afternoon temperatures
primarily in the 80s across the Plains. In addition, gusty winds
being noted over portions of the Continental Divide and the San
Luis Valley, allowing humidity values to meet critical values in
regards to fire weather.

Through this evening...models are in good agreement with regards to
severe thunderstorm potential through this evening.  Expect isolated
thunderstorms to continue over portions of Lincoln into Crowley
and Kiowa Counties into this evening. Hodographs favor right
splitting cells that should track southeast. CAPE and shear values
are favorable for rotating updrafts. This will help produce large
hail, likely to the size of golfballs. In addition, gusty winds
in excess of 60 mph are likely. There is a small tornado threat
through this evening. Initial development will have higher LCL
heights, but as cells move southeast they will encounter deeper
moisture and become better rooted in the boundary layer, which
will likely increase the tornado threat over Crowley and Kiowa
Counties.

Further south, not anticipating much in the way of convective
development.  There may be a few cells fire over the Eastern
Mountains which have a low probability of moving east into the I-25
corridor, but confidence is low in this occurring.

Out west, dry humidity values and gusty winds will continue to bring
high fire danger to the San Luis Valley, east into Fremont County
through this evening.

Tonight...westward moving outflow from the thunderstorms out east
will combine with a cold front dropping south from the north will
move across the Plains.  Expect thunderstorms out east to clear by
midnight.  As winds turn northeasterly across the Plains, with low
stratus developing through Friday morning.  With this stratus, there
may be areas of light rainfall, but coverage is not expected to
warrant much in the way of pops through Friday morning.

Friday...the next upper disturbance will pass across northern
Colorado into western Kansas through the day.  Cooler air behind the
cold front will bring much more stable conditions to the Plains
along with cooler afternoon highs.  Temperatures will reach into the
70s and 80s for highs.  Thunderstorms may be possible during the
afternoon hours, primarily over the Eastern Mountains, south into
the Raton Mesa where slightly better instability will be present.
This activity will move southeast into New Mexico through the late
afternoon hours.  The main threats will be nickel size hail and
outflow winds to near 50 mph. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Will keep discussion relatively brief due to ongoing active
meteorological conditions.

Not many meteorological revisions required during the longer
term with main longer term meteorological issues being pops,
thunderstorm intensity and temperatures.

It still appears that near to above seasonal temperatures in
combination with generally low-grade pops(although isolated
strong to possibly severe storms will be possible at times)
will be noted during the longer term.

Latest PV analysis, computer simulations and forecast model
soundings suggest that the northwesterly to zonal upper flow
from Friday evening into the weekend will transition to a upper
ridging pattern from later in the weekend into next Thursday.

In addition, varying degrees of southeastern Colorado surface
lee-side troughing is anticipated from Friday evening into
Thursday.

As touched upon earlier, near to above seasonal early July
temperatures are anticipated during the longer term with warmest
temperatures anticipated from late weekend into next Thursday with
maximum temperatures climbing into the 90s over many eastern
locations during this time-frame(including Independence Day).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Westerly winds
gusting to near 25 kts are expected through the early evening hours.

KCOS...A cold front will drop south into KCOS by this evening
with a northeasterly wind shift. This will likely lead to lowered
CIGS to near 2-4kft by Friday morning. Clearing conditions to VFR
are expected by Friday afternoon.

KPUB...Expect all thunderstorm activity to remain north of the
terminal through this evening. A cold front will arrive this
evening with northeasterly winds likely gusting in excess of 25
kts. Easterly flow later tonight will lead to lowered CIGS to near
4 kft through Friday morning. Expect clearing conditions into
Friday afternoon. Mozley &&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
908 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     HAIL             WALSH                   37.39N 102.28W
06/29/2017  M2.00 INCH       BACA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
913 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HAIL             1 SW STONINGTON         37.29N 102.19W
06/29/2017  M1.75 INCH       BACA               CO   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
929 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             4 SE STONINGTON         37.27N 102.13W
06/29/2017  M2.00 INCH       BACA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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