Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
359 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Rest of this afternoon, with ongoing severe weather will keep this
short. An outflow boundary from the northeast has triggered some
isolated severe storms across the plains. CAPE values above 1000
j/kg, plus shear and the boundary will keep the severe risk
through the rest of the afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch in
effect til 04z.

Tonight, some weak shortwave energy and a boundary across the plains
will keep the risk for isolated severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds in play.  Models have been hinting at more storms
developing along the Raton Mesa and lingering into the overnight.
Storms across the eastern San Juans and adjacent San Luis Valley
will also persist into the evening then wane.

Monday, another round of showers and storms is expected to develop
across the eastern part of the area with the risk for more isolated
severe storms.  There will be a lesser risk for showers and storms
out west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Active weather will continue early this week with a break during
the middle portion of the week, and active weather reappearing for
the weekend. How the pattern evolves is still in question, but
active weather is looking more probable.

Monday night...expect showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing
across the region Monday evening, with activity spreading south
and east through the midnight hour. A few storms could be strong,
especially over the southern I-25 corridor, and out along the New
Mexico border. Expect all activity to dissipate or move out of the
CWA by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday...the upper level ridge over the area is forecast to shift
eastward with zonal westerly flow moving into the Rockies Tuesday
evening. A strong disturbance in the flow will help trigger
thunderstorms by the afternoon. In addition, the low levels
indicate a dryline will develop across the Eastern Plains,
generally east of an Eads to Kim line. Instability and shear will
be sufficient to support a few strong to severe thunderstorms with
large hail and damaging winds possible. This activity will move
east through the evening with clearing conditions overnight.

Wednesday and Thursday...broad zonal flow will set up with
embedded energy passing to the north. A few thunderstorms may be
possible over the Central Mountains, east into the Palmer Divide
on Wednesday. Otherwise dry and warmer conditions will prevail
Wednesday afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 90s. By
Thursday, moisture will start to return with better chances for
showers and thunderstorms over the Mountains, however the Plains
look to remain generally dry and warm.

Friday into Sunday...high pressure over the Desert Southwest looks
to build northward into the Great Basin with generally northwest
flow across Colorado. This will bring an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity was we move through the weekend as energy
moves over the ridge and across Colorado. Temperatures will be
somewhat cooler as well with 80s for highs.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Widely scattered showers and isold tsra will be possible over
KPUB and KCOS this evening. KALS should remain dry. KPUB and KALS
should see VFR cigs next 24 hours, however some low cigs will be
possible at KCOS and KPUB later tonight, especially during the
early morning hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...TM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-261800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1152 AM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur, mainly from the
eastern mountains into the plains, with the best chance being
across the southern Sangre de Cristos Mountains, southern I-25
corridor, and Raton Mesa. A few of the storms may be marginally
severe, with hail around quarter size and winds gusts to 60 mph.
Cloud to ground lightning will be the other risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Monday and Tuesday, a few storms will be marginally severe, with
hail around quarter size, wind gusts around 60 mph, locally heavy
rainfall and lightning. The favored locations for those storms
will be the I-25 corridor and plains.

Then, isolated storms, with cloud to ground lightning, wind gusts
around 50 mph, and small hail are expected during the afternoons
and evenings Wednesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and tonight, mainly across the I-25
corridor and the Raton Mesa.

13/13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
518 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017

COZ094-099-252345-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
518 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BACA AND EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 518 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Kenton, or 31 miles southwest of Springfield, moving
south at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Baca
and eastern Las Animas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3717 10312 3721 10293 3700 10276 3700 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 350DEG 27KT 3709 10303

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
523 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017

COZ086-260000-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
523 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM MDT...

At 523 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Pueblo, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Boone, Pueblo Reservoir, Salt Creek, Blende, Avondale, Pueblo
West and Pueblo Depot.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 10485 3841 10464 3821 10415 3791 10453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 307DEG 35KT 3827 10465

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
625 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017

COZ094-260115-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
625 PM MDT SUN JUN 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

At 625 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Kim, or 38 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving
south at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Las
Animas County.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3711 10338 3717 10317 3700 10309 3700 10336
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 341DEG 6KT 3708 10325

28

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