Alert archive / Colorado / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

May 18, 2017Crowley County, Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this special weather statement at May 18, 2017, 6:44 PM MDT for Crowley County, Colorado. It was in force for 16 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 18, 2017, 6:44 PM MDT (00:44 UTC)
Expired: May 18, 2017, 7:00 PM MDT
In force: 16 min
Issued by: NWS Pueblo, CO

County Crowley County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 562 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 167 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 206 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 18, 3:02 PM MDT, 3 hours 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 18, 3:02 PM MDT, 3 hours 42 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

This afternoon, thunderstorms have fired along a boundary in
southeast CO and are tracking northeastward.  There will continue to
be the potential for a couple severe storms over sern CO into this
evening, with the main threat being large hail.

This evening, the highest chances for pcpn are expected to be found
over the central CO mtns, Teller county, Pikes Peak, and the
southwest mtns.  These areas will see some additional accumulations
of snow.  The latest run of the HRRR and the 18Z run of the NAM12
are showing decreasing chances of pcpn over El Paso county thru the
evening hours, except maybe ovr the Monument Hill area where there
could be a couple or a few inches of additional snow accumulation.

After midnight, the HRRR and NAM12 show a significant decrease in
pcpn chances across all of southeast and south central CO, with only
some isolated showers.  The GFS continues to show a little more pcpn
than the other models, showing continued snowfall in the central
mtns thru the night, and some light snow accumulations over Teller
county and Pikes Peak, with some light showers over portions of the
southeast plains, increasing toward 12Z.  The NAM is a bit farther
south with the upper low center Fri morning than the GFS.  Both the
NAM and the GFS show widespread pcpn moving into southeast CO after
12Z, with the GFS being wetter and more widespread than the NAM.  At
this time, it looks like there could be several inches of snow over
the southern Sangre de Cristo mtns beginning Fri morning and thru
the day, so will issue a Winter Weather Advisory.  It is also
possible that the southern I-25 corridor counties could see several
inches of snow in the morning hours on Fri, mainly over Huerfano and
western Las Animas counties and especially west of the Interstate,
as temps are expected to be cold enough for a short period, but
impact will probably be low as the roads will probably just be
slushy or wet.

One other worry is the potential for low temps tonight around
freezing.  Have decided to issue a Freeze Warning for northern El
Paso county, and a Frost Advisory for southern El Paso, Huerfano and
western Las Animas counties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Friday night and Saturday...Models place a secondary piece of the
upper low over the southeast corner of the state Friday evening,
with snow for the higher elevations and rain for the lower expected
to continue through the evening. As the low pulls off to the e-ne
away from Colorado overnight, pcpn chances are forecast to diminish
quickly after midnight with unsettled nw flow aloft then settling
in. Another cold night on tap for the forecast area Fri night, and
additional frost/freeze highlights will likely be needed tomorrow.
Otherwise, look for temps to only warm into the 50s and 60s across
the area on Sat.

Sunday through Thursday...As the system exits the region, long range
models continue to keep Colorado under active northwest flow, with
multiple shortwaves crossing the region. There will be a nearly
constant threat of at least isolated convection over the higher
terrain and adjacent plains each day. A cold front dropping south
across the eastern plains Mon aftn will produce cooler temps for
Tue, then drier air filtering in behind is forecast to keep the cwa
dry for Wed. Temps will climb into the 60s to lower 70s each day,
but cooler on Tue with 50s and 60s expected. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

At this time is looks like KPUB will mostly see VFR conditions
tonight and into Fri morning, however there may be some showers or
tstms in the area this evening.  Fri morning there will be
increasing chances for rain again and ceilings will lower, possibly
into the MVFR category by late morning.  KCOS will probably see some
showers/tstms in the area this evening with periods of MVFR
conditions. Chances for pcpn then are expected to decrease or end by
late evening with VFR conditions.  Chances for pcpn are then
expected to increase during the day Fri, but VFR conditions are
still expected until toward evening when ceilings are forecast to
lower into the MVFR category.  KALS is expected to have VFR
conditions until around 13Z Fri and then the ceilings are expected
to lower into the MVFR or IFR category.  There may be some
showers/tstms in the vcnty of KALS this evening, and could move into
the area again Fri afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for
COZ085-087-088.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ059-063-066-
068-081.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ058-060-082.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ074-
075.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ084.

Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM MDT Friday for
COZ084.

&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28

Hazardous weather outlook, May 18, 10:45 AM MDT, 7 hours 59 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-191645-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1045 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Wet snow will continue falling mainly above 6500 feet in El Paso
county with some additional accumulations today and into this
evening, and then decreasing snow chances late tonight. Teller
county, Pikes Peak, Lake county and the higher elevations of
Chaffee county, will also continue to see snow today and tonight
with several inches of additional accumulation. Snow will also
continue om the southwest mountains today, but it is expected to
taper off tonight.

This afternoon, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms across the
southeast plains, east of the I-25 corridor.  The primary concerns
are large hail and damaging winds but there is also risk of a
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There will be the potential for several inches of snow
accumulation from Friday morning through the afternoon over the
southern Sangre de Cristo mountains and the Raton Mesa. There will
also be the possibility of heavy moderate to heavy rain across the
much of the southeast plains on Friday.

Daily rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
as well as higher terrain snow at times is expected Saturday
through Wednesday, with higher terrain locations on Friday having
the highest potential of noting several additional inches of
snow.

In regards to thunderstorms, the primary storm threats include
locally heavy rainfall, lightning, wind gusts around 50 mph at
times and hail generally under one inch in diameter.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely through tonight across southern Colorado.

28/28

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 18, 4:50 PM MDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
450 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             1 NE PUEBLO WEST        38.33N 104.74W
05/18/2017  M1.50 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RMG

Local storm report, May 18, 4:53 PM MDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
453 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             1 E PUEBLO WEST         38.31N 104.73W
05/18/2017  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0452 PM     HAIL             PUEBLO WEST             38.31N 104.75W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   PUBLIC

&&

Local storm report, May 18, 4:55 PM MDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
455 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     HAIL             PUEBLO WEST             38.31N 104.75W
05/18/2017  M1.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RMG

Local storm report, May 18, 4:58 PM MDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
458 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             1 ESE PUEBLO WEST       38.31N 104.73W
05/18/2017  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RMG

Special weather statement, May 18, 6:01 PM MDT, 43 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
601 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

COZ086-089-190045-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-Crowley County CO-
601 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CROWLEY AND
NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

At 600 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pueblo Depot, or 22 miles east of Pueblo, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo Depot.

LAT...LON 3826 10430 3850 10436 3852 10392 3830 10397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 241DEG 26KT 3838 10423

Hodanish

Special weather statement, May 18, 6:44 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
644 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

COZ089-190100-
Crowley County CO-
644 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CROWLEY COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM MDT...

At 644 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Forder, or 40 miles northwest of La Junta, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Crowley County.

LAT...LON 3852 10357 3839 10391 3852 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 236DEG 27KT 3851 10387

Hodanish

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 18, 6:01 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Crowley	44 min
May 18, 7:46 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Kiowa	29 min
May 18, 8:02 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Las Animas	43 min
May 18, 8:24 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Kiowa	36 min
May 18, 10:32 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	PUB	Prowers	28 min
May 19, 9:30 AM MDT	Freeze Warning	PUB	El Paso, Huerfano, Las Animas, Pueblo	23 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Colorado, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.