Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Pueblo, CO

745 
WWUS55 KPUB 181930
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
130 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

COC101-182000-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-170518T2000Z/
Pueblo CO-
130 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY...

At 129 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over southwestern
Pueblo, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Salt Creek, Blende, Pueblo Depot, Pueblo Reservoir, Avondale
and Pueblo West.

At 126 PM a spotter reported 1 inch hail in southwest Pueblo. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 10462 3824 10477 3851 10447 3831 10424
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 231DEG 21KT 3823 10462 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

PGW

595 
WWUS55 KPUB 181946
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
146 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

COC101-182000-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-170518T2000Z/
Pueblo CO-
146 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM MDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY...

At 145 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over northeastern
Pueblo, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Public. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Salt Creek, Blende, Pueblo Depot and Pueblo West. 

Spotters are reporting penny to nickel size hail in Pueblo. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 10461 3828 10473 3851 10447 3835 10428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 225DEG 19KT 3829 10458 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

PGW

498 
WWUS55 KPUB 181959
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
159 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

COC101-182008-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-170518T2000Z/
Pueblo CO-
159 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However penny 
size hail is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3818 10461 3828 10473 3851 10447 3835 10428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 228DEG 23KT 3834 10450 

$$

PGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1158 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Updated forecast from today through Fri morning based current
trends and on latest high res forecast model run.

UPDATE Issued at 956 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Made some major changes to the highlights and forecast thru
Friday. Significant model changes with regards to the track of the
current weather system affecting CO, and current conditions have
prompted the changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 608 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

...Mountain Snow...Showers and Thunderstorms...A Few Possibly Severe
on the Plains...

Complex weather pattern with multiple concerns.  Intense low
pressure system currently spinning over Salt City area is ejecting a
major shortwave northeast across the 4 corners this morning.  This
shortwave will bring a round of precipitation to the area this
morning, falling as snow above 6500-7000 feet and rain showers
below. In addition, there will be embedded thunderstorms in all of
this with occasional lightning activity noted through the night
across southern Colorado.  This morning, snow has been falling down
to about 6500 feet with snow noted in web cams at Woodland Park,
down Ute Pass and across northern El Paso County including Monument,
Black Forest, and the northern reaches of Colorado Springs.  Roads,
in large part, look just wet or slushy with the most slush appearing
on the roadway in Monument.  The Cheyenne Mountain snow stake at
9440 feet was showing about 2 inches at 5 am.  It looked like
Woodland Park and the higher reaches of Ute Pass and Monument all
had about the same, just eye-balling it.  Wet snow will continue to
fall above 6500-7000 feet across the Pikes Peak region through the
morning and possibly early afternoon and then begin to decrease.
What will happen overnight remains in question as new model runs
coming in this morning are changing things up on us.  Old runs had
precipitation continuing across mainly the Pikes Peak Region
overnight while new runs are shifting the focus for precipitation
much farther south.  This is due to a shift, a big shift, in the
track of the upper low.  Old runs took it across the Palmer Divide
late tonight.  New runs are taking it across northern New Mexico.
This appears to be the result of the intensity of the ejecting
shortwave that is headed our way this morning.  It is so strong that
it may cause the parent upper low over Salt Lake City to get
dumbbelled strongly southeastward into northern New Mexico.  If this
happens, the focus for precipitation will shift south tonight,
bringing a much bigger threat of precipitation to the southern tier
of the forecast area than previously thought.  It would also shift
the focus away from the northern tier, including the Pikes Peak
Region.  So, have started trending that way in this morning's
forecasts. But, with this being such a late breaking change in the
models, there is much uncertainty.  It could still work out the way
that was previously thought.  For now, it is best to go with a
Winter Storm Watch for the Palmer Divide and all of the eastern
mountains areas, not knowing exactly where the heaviest snow will
fall. Very challenging to figure it out when things are changing at
the last minute.  Just don't have the confidence one way or the
other.

Another concern today will be the potential for severe weather over
the far eastern plains this afternoon.  Several high res model runs
are showing the potential for severe storm develop across the plains
east of the I-25 corridor in the afternoon, and possibly early in
the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has this area in the
marginal risk area at this time but it will be close.  There will be
a ribbon of decent CAPE out there.  There will also be good shear
and instability across the plains.  Couple this with good lift from
the upper low and there could be some severe weather.  Large hail
and strong winds will be the main risks but there is also potential
for a tornado. Will have to monitor things closely in the afternoon.

Another possible concern with this storm is the potential for heavy
rain on burn scars.  Older model runs suggested a low potential for
this.  But, with recent runs, the risk for burn scar flooding has
increased.  There could be some north to south training convection
over the burn scars this morning.  The Waldo Canyon scar may be
alright with primarily snow falling across the scar.  However, the
scars farther south, such as the Junkins and Hayden Pass scars, may
be subject to training rain showers which could lead to problems.
Will have to monitor this closely today as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 608 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Some relatively major revisions were needed due to computer
simulations/real time data indicating that storm system will be
heading further south than earlier anticipated.

Meteorological focus remains on the amount of impact that upper
systems in combination with north to northeasterly surface surges
will provide the forecast district during the longer term.

Primary meteorological challenges continue to include, but are
not limited to temperatures, pops, qpf, snow amounts over
primarily higher terrain locations and gusty winds at times.

As alluded to earlier, latest computer simulations(especially the
HRRR and NAM), PV analysis and forecast model soundings now
indicate that closed upper low will track a couple of hundred
miles further south than earlier projected with the closed upper
low now expected to move across northern New Mexico Friday before
moving into western Kansas by Friday evening and then shifting
into South Dakota Saturday. Recent GFS also trending further south
with the upper low but not as far south as the NAM and HRRR.

Due to the further southern track of the upper low, have issued a
Winter Storm Watch for the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Wet
Mountains, Northern El Paso County and the upper Huerfano River
Basin Below 7500 Feet from 06Z Friday to 00Z Saturday. In
addition, existing inherited winter weather highlights remain in
place over the forecast district into Friday.

Then, from Saturday into Wednesday, upper impulses interacting with
northerly/northeasterly surface surges at times will be capable of
producing periods of showers and thunderstorms as well as higher
elevation snow at times in combination with generally below
seasonal later May temperatures.

Below seasonal temperatures are still anticipated over the
forecast district from Friday into Tuesday with temperatures then
nearing later May climatological averages by Wednesday. It still
appears that minimum temperatures challenging the freezing mark
will be possible over many Interstate 25 corridor locations both
Friday and Saturday morning.

Finally, the highest potential of stronger gradient winds during
the longer term are anticipated from later Friday into Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

KCOS...Boundary just to the east of KCOS will keep precipitation
in the region through mid afternoon. Afterwards, precipitation
will become more showery with VFR conditions developing. An
increase in showers may occur Friday as a storm strengthens to the
east.

KPUB...Drier air will move into the region for some clearing later
in the afternoon. Showers may increase Friday as a storm
strengthens to the east.

KALS...VFR with gusty southwest winds today. A disturbance could
bring some showers to the region overnight and into Friday.
--PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ059-063-066-
068-081.

Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
for COZ072>075-079-080-087.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ058-060-082.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ084.

&&

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...PGW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1045 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-191645-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1045 AM MDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Wet snow will continue falling mainly above 6500 feet in El Paso
county with some additional accumulations today and into this
evening, and then decreasing snow chances late tonight. Teller
county, Pikes Peak, Lake county and the higher elevations of
Chaffee county, will also continue to see snow today and tonight
with several inches of additional accumulation. Snow will also
continue om the southwest mountains today, but it is expected to
taper off tonight.

This afternoon, there is a risk of severe thunderstorms across the
southeast plains, east of the I-25 corridor.  The primary concerns
are large hail and damaging winds but there is also risk of a
tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There will be the potential for several inches of snow
accumulation from Friday morning through the afternoon over the
southern Sangre de Cristo mountains and the Raton Mesa. There will
also be the possibility of heavy moderate to heavy rain across the
much of the southeast plains on Friday.

Daily rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
as well as higher terrain snow at times is expected Saturday
through Wednesday, with higher terrain locations on Friday having
the highest potential of noting several additional inches of
snow.

In regards to thunderstorms, the primary storm threats include
locally heavy rainfall, lightning, wind gusts around 50 mph at
times and hail generally under one inch in diameter.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely through tonight across southern Colorado.

28/28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 AM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW PETERSON AFB       38.88N 104.74W
05/18/2017  M1.24 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1132 AM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 AM     SNOW             3 WSW COLORADO SPRINGS  38.81N 104.88W
05/18/2017  M2.5 INCH        EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW COLORADO SPRINGS  38.82N 104.86W
05/18/2017  M1.90 INCH       EL PASO            CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1239 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE MONUMENT          39.09N 104.85W
05/18/2017  M1.57 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL SNOW 1.3 INCHES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1258 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1257 PM     SNOW             4 S BLACK FOREST        38.95N 104.71W
05/18/2017  M2.0 INCH        EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
113 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

COZ086-182000-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
113 PM MDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...

At 112 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pueblo Reservoir, or near Pueblo, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Reservoir, Salt Creek, Blende, Pinon, Pueblo West and
Pueblo Depot.

LAT...LON 3809 10466 3821 10483 3851 10459 3834 10433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 219DEG 15KT 3821 10469

PGW