Freeze Watch 2, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1134 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 430 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Low level winds have been in close alignment with the Arkansas
Valley around Canon City and Pueblo today, keeping rather gusty
conditions in place through mid-afternoon. Mountains have been
fairly breezy as well, as mid level winds increase ahead of digging
western U.S. upper trough. Expect at least modest W-SW winds to
persist overnight many areas, with enough mixing to keep mins milder
than the past few nights, especially along and west of i-25.  One
more mild to warm day expected area-wide on Sunday, as main cold
front will remain north of the region until evening. Surface lee
trough Sunday afternoon will remain fairly close to I-25, which may
limit mixing and hold down temps slightly on the plains, with maxes
a couple degf cooler than today east of I-25. Farther west, temps
will remain similar to today, with one last day of well above
average readings expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 430 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017

Main longer range concern continues to be the the amount of
impact that a quick moving/potent storm system will have on the
forecast district from later Sunday night into early Monday
evening.

Unsettled and colder conditions are still expected to develop
over the forecast district from later Sunday evening into early
Monday evening as a vigorous and relatively quick moving closed
upper low entering southwestern Colorado Monday morning shifts
into south-central Colorado by Monday afternoon before pushing
into southwestern Kansas by sunrise Tuesday.

In addition, a strong northerly surface surge pushing into
northern sections Sunday evening surges into northeastern New
Mexico by 08Z Monday.

Have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the I-25 corridor, eastern
and central mountains from 07Z Monday to 02Z Tuesday, even though
several lower terrain locations may struggle to reach advisory
criteria, since this system has the potential to be a moderate to
possibly briefly high impact early Fall event over many portions
of the I-25 corridor due to a combination of gusty winds, snow,
blowing snow, fog, much colder temperatures...etc.(i.e. this is
the 1st potential winter weather event for the 2017 Fall season
over the I-25 corridor).

For example, Pueblo(in public forecast zone 86) may struggle to
realize accumulating snow during this event, however other higher
terrain locations(also located in public forecast zone 86) have
the potential of experiencing several inches of snow with this
event.

As discussed in earlier discussions, as this system moves across
the forecast district, anticipate snow levels lowering to around
5,000 feet Monday with the highest potential of heavier accumulating
snow projected for elevations above 6,000 feet, although as
touched upon earlier, localized snow accumulations will be
possible over lower elevations at times.

Also, maximum temperatures on Monday over many eastern locations
are still projected to run some 30F to 40F cooler when compared to
Sunday afternoon's maximum temperatures while minimum
temperatures over the I-25 corridor by Tuesday morning are
expected to drop into the 20's, which if realized would be the
1st widespread freeze of the season for the I-25 corridor. WFO
Pueblo will continue to monitor closely and issue additional
Winter Weather Highlights and/or Freeze Highlights as warranted.

Then, improving meteorological conditions(in the form of drier
and warmer conditions) is still anticipated over the CWA from
Tuesday afternoon into next Saturday as dry southwesterly upper
flow takes hold over southern Colorado.

Finally, the highest potential of stronger gradient winds over
the forecast district during the longer term should be experienced
from Sunday night into Monday and then again from Wednesday
evening into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. However...major changes will
likely occur shortly after 06 utc Sunday night at KCOS.

Dry and light winds are expected tonight at each taf site.
Tomorrow, breezy and warm conditions are expected at each site.
However, a strong cold front will cross the KCOS and KPUB around
~02/03 UTC/09 and winds will howl from the north. Snow may
develop late tomorrow evening or during the early morning hours at
KCOS. The ground is very warm so if it does snow it will likely
not accumulate on paved surfaces.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for COZ058>063-072>088.

&&

AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
515 AM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017

COZ058>089-093>099-081115-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Ft-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Ft-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Ft-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Ft-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County above 9000Ft-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Ft-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide below 10000 Ft-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Ft-
Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Ft-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Ft-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Ft-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Ft-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
515 AM MDT Sat Oct 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Snow, wind and colder temperatures will affect southern Colorado
beginning Sunday night and continuing through Monday evening.
Moderate snow accumulations will be possible for the mountains
through this period, with light accumulations across the valleys
and portions of the southern I-25 corridor.

A cold front is expected bring strong north winds gusting up to
40 to 50 mph Sunday evening. Snow will spread into the central
mountains and Pikes Peak region through the night with snow levels
dropping to around 6000 feet by midnight across the Pikes Peak
region. Rain and snow will then spread southward into the
remainder of the mountains and adjacent plains through Monday
morning. Snow levels will drop to between 4500 to 5000 feet Monday
morning with wet accumulations of snow possible at times, mainly
on grassy surfaces across portions of the southern I-25 corridor.
The southeast plains will see mostly rain.

The storm will pull east of the area Monday night with clearing
skies leading to the first widespread freeze across most of the
southeast plains Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

88/31