Special Weather Statement, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
944 PM MST Mon Jul 17 2017

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will moderate during the early parts of this week as
moisture and thunderstorm activity increases across the region.
Areas of blowing dust and gusty winds will likely accompany any
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Increasing
moisture levels will also lead to greater storm coverage as well as
elevating the threat for flooding rains the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A well-defined MCV has taken an eastward turn across southwest
Arizona, and is approaching the Yuma area. Convection that was
developing ahead/west of this feature has generally weakened, but
new development remains possible as the atmosphere is very moist
/PW over 2 inches per SPC mesoanalysis page/. More explosive
thunderstorm development is occurring across southeast Arizona and
over the White Mountains this afternoon. Cumulus development
farther east across southern Gila County, near Globe, has
struggled as capping is more evident in visible satellite imagery.
However, expect thunderstorms to gradually shift eastward, as
deep-layer easterly flow remains situated across Arizona. It is
more uncertain if storms will survive in tact into the lower
deserts later this evening, as the morning sounding from Phoenix
reflected a less unstable air mass.

Heavy rainfall will remain the primary threat with any storm
given the very moist air mass, and the Flash Flood Watch remains
in effect until 10 PM tonight. There is a possibility this may
need to be extended, or a new one issued for tomorrow, as the
environment will remain favorable for heavy rainfall, but
uncertainty in thunderstorm coverage tomorrow remains high.

Otherwise, the large-scale pattern will remain fairly stagnant,
with the midlevel anticyclone centered near the Southern Plains,
and a weak upper low over northwest Mexico. This will maintain
moisture across the Southwest, with the potential for at least
moderate thunderstorm activity most days through the end of the
week. Temperatures will remain near or even slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Cooling cloud tops across the mountains of Gila County portend an
increase in thunderstorm activity over the next few hours, with
impacts generally confined to the areas east of KPHX and KIWA.
Although a thunderstorm is not likely at the terminals, the
activity will help to reinforce the easterly flow during the early
morning hours.

For Tuesday afternoon, an increase in thunderstorm activity is
anticipated across the Phoenix area. An outflow boundary from the
southeast or northeast is likely during the early evening, which
will trigger scattered convection along with the possibility of
blowing dust.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Thunderstorm activity will generally remain east of both KIPL and
KBLH. Otherwise, a southerly component to the flow will prevail at
both sites.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wednesday through Sunday:

Monsoon moisture will decrease somewhat from their high levels over
the weekend. Thunderstorm activity will mainly be confined to areas
of south central Arizona, generally from Phoenix north through
southeast. Minimum relative humidity will range from 20 percent in
southeast California/southwest Arizona to near 40 percent in
southern Gila County. Afternoon southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Fair
overnight recovery.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MST this evening for AZZ534-
     537>563.

CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Rogers
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...CB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
951 PM MST MON JUL 17 2017

AZZ558-560-563-180530-
Southeast Gila County AZ-San Carlos AZ-
Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
951 PM MST MON JUL 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 1030 PM MST...

At 951 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
San Carlos, or 19 miles east of Globe, moving west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Carlos.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 11045 3329 11046 3323 11044 3324 11066
      3344 11062 3339 11041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0451Z 096DEG 12KT 3335 11046

Hernandez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1031 PM MST MON JUL 17 2017

AZZ552-555-558-560>563-180615-
Southeast Gila County AZ-San Carlos AZ-
Apache Junction/Gold Canyon AZ-Dripping Springs AZ-Globe/Miami AZ-
Superior AZ-Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
1031 PM MST MON JUL 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA AND PINAL COUNTIES UNTIL
1115 PM MST...

At 1030 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Globe, moving southwest at 50 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Globe, Superior, Hayden, Christmas, San Carlos, Miami, Top Of The
World, Cutter, Top-Of-The-World, Claypool, Central Heights-Midland
City, Boyce Thompson Arboretum and Inspiration.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 11050 3314 11059 3315 11063 3307 11073
      3304 11072 3299 11076 3299 11079 3324 11094
      3313 11113 3323 11131 3353 11061 3336 11044
      3329 11046 3320 11040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0530Z 062DEG 41KT 3333 11081

Hirsch

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