Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Phoenix, AZ

850 
WGUS75 KPSR 032328
FFSPSR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
428 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

AZC013-040045-
/O.CON.KPSR.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-170804T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Maricopa AZ-
428 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MST FOR
MARICOPA COUNTY...

At 424 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated rainfall amounts upward to 2 
to 3 inches have fallen over the warned area including over portions 
of the Delaney Wash basin.  Rainfall will continue to makes its way 
down Delaney Wash and impact road crossings including 411th Avenue 
and Salome Highway.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Tonopah and Delaney Wash. 

LAT...LON 3384 11282 3337 11278 3350 11325 3382 11326

$$

MS

107 
WGUS55 KPSR 040013
FFWPSR
AZC013-040345-
/O.EXT.KPSR.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-170804T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
513 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

The National Weather Service in Phoenix has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Maricopa County in south central Arizona...

* Until 845 PM MST

* At 510 PM MST, Maricopa County Flood Control stream gage indicated 
  a rise within Delaney Wash. A second larger rise in water levels 
  in Delaney Wash is forecast to occur between 700 and 800 PM and 
  flood road crossings at 411th Avenue and Salome Highway.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Delaney Wash and Wintersburg. 

LAT...LON 3384 11282 3337 11278 3350 11325 3382 11326

$$

MS

375 
WGUS75 KPSR 040329
FFSPSR

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
829 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

AZC013-040339-
/O.CAN.KPSR.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-170804T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Maricopa AZ-
829 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MARICOPA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended but additional runoff impacts will continue 
into the evening and will be covered with an Areal Flood Warning. 
Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3384 11282 3337 11278 3350 11325 3382 11326

$$

Hernandez

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
157 PM MST Thu Aug 3 2017

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather discussions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Lingering monsoon moisture over the region is expected to keep storm
chances going over the region through Friday, especially over the
higher terrain. A dramatic decrease in thunderstorm activity is
expected during the upcoming weekend, and continuing through much of
next week, as increasing southwesterly flow pushes much drier air
into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight...

The upper-level vort max that helped to trigger widespread
convective activity across SW AZ and SE CA yesterday/last night can
be seen on WV satellite imagery at this hour spinning northward
across eastern Riverside County. This feature is continuing to
trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over/around the Salton
Sea. Winds aloft behind this vort max are beginning to shift to a
more southwesterly direction this morning across SE CA and SW AZ as
the upper-level ridge along the west coast begins to break down. The
main impact from this change to a southwesterly flow will be to
gradually import drier air into the region. Although a reduction in
convective activity is expected due to the loss of moisture and less
favorable southwesterly flow, at least slight chances of storms are
still forecast across all of our cwa, due to a bit better wind shear
profile through the column. Temperatures are expected to warm a bit
across south-central AZ due to less cloud cover.

Friday and Friday night...

A more noticeable reduction in convective active is expected across
the western and central parts of our cwa during this period, as the
winds aloft become more westerly as upper-level trofing begins to
set up along the CA coast, undercutting the very strong ridging that
is currently in place along the Pac NW coast. These westerly winds
will finally begin to pull much drier air into the region, with
PWATS falling to near 1.00 inch across SE CA and SW AZ by Friday
afternoon. Still, a rather active day on Friday is possible across
southern Gila County, due to lingering moisture and favorable
upslope flow.

Saturday through next Wednesday...

Model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement that a solid
break in the monsoon will occur during this period as weak trofing
becomes established along the west coast, with light westerly flow
persisting over our cwa. PWATs are expected to fall to 0.75 inch, or
even lower across parts of our cwa. Fortunately, temperatures are
not expected to stray far from normal, with 500mb heights being kept
mainly in the 588-592dm range during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:

Latest satellite trends indicate a continued threat of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening across the
Phoenix area. Hi-resolution models also suggest that any outflow
winds that develop would likely produce gusts out of the west,
associated with activity across northern and western Maricopa
County. There is also a lower than average threat of blowing dust.
Looking ahead, somewhat of a drying trend is expected Friday, with
activity mainly confined to the higher terrain north and east of
Phoenix.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Conditions remain quite moist across southeastern California and
southwestern Arizona. The threat for isolated showers and
thunderstorms will persist into early this evening. Any storms
that develop have the potential to be quite strong, with gusts in
excess of 40 kt.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday:

Overall fairly dry air will be in place across much of the region as
westerly flow aloft dominates through the period. Thunderstorm
chances will be focused mainly across the high terrain of eastern
Arizona. Minimum relative humidities will drop into the teens across
the lower deserts to above 20-30 percent for the higher terrain of
Gila County. High temperatures will remain near or slightly below
normals through the period. Winds will generally be on the light
side, but afternoon southwest to westerly breeziness is likely most
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at weather.gov/phoenix

DISCUSSION...Percha
AVIATION...Hirsch
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch/Kuhlman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
233 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

AZZ533-534-032200-
Aguila Valley AZ-Central La Paz AZ-
233 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LA PAZ AND MARICOPA
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MST...

At 232 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gladden, or 31 miles south of Alamo Lake, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Expect
heavy rain and possible blowing dust.

Locations impacted include...
Gladden, Aguila and Wenden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Locally dense blowing dust is possible.  If you encounter blowing
dust while driving, pull over as far off the roadway as possible and
park. Turn off your headlights and keep your foot off the brake.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 11333 3400 11318 3392 11306 3374 11333
      3372 11334 3383 11351 3406 11334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 219DEG 16KT 3384 11337

AD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
236 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

AZZ533-032215-
Central La Paz AZ-
236 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM MST...

At 236 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brenda, or 37 miles southeast of Parker, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brenda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3353 11400 3368 11412 3384 11392 3361 11374
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 236DEG 6KT 3365 11399

Hernandez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
237 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

AZZ552-553-555-032215-
Northwest Pinal County AZ-Apache Junction/Gold Canyon AZ-Superior AZ-
237 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 237 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Florence, moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm. Expect
heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Florence Junction and Queen Valley.

LAT...LON 3310 11119 3305 11134 3327 11152 3335 11122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 161DEG 12KT 3313 11130

AD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
241 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N COTTONWOOD VISITOR  33.81N 115.78W
08/03/2017                   RIVERSIDE          CA   OTHER FEDERAL

            SOUTH ENTRANCE OF JOSHUA TREE NATIONAL PARK
            CLOSED. WASHES FLOWING INCLUDING SMOKE TREE
            WASH.

&&

MS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
243 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

AZZ530>532-536-CAZ569-032230-
Gila River Valley AZ-Kofa AZ-Parker Valley AZ-Yuma AZ-
Palo Verde Valley CA-
243 PM MST THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LA PAZ...
NORTHWESTERN YUMA AND EASTERN IMPERIAL COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM MST/330
PM PDT/...

At 243 PM MST/243 PM PDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm over Martinez Lake, moving northeast at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Martinez Lake and Yuma Proving Ground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3285 11448 3298 11462 3338 11438 3324 11407
      3289 11391
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 217DEG 6KT 3299 11448

Hernandez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
245 PM PDT THU AUG 3 2017

CAZ563-564-566-567-032215-
Chuckwalla Mountains CA-Imperial County West CA-Salton Sea CA-
Imperial Valley CA-
245 PM PDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM PDT...

At 245 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Westmorland, or 12 miles southeast of Salton City,
moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Westmorland, Calipatria, Niland and Wiest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 11591 3318 11596 3339 11550 3300 11532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 251DEG 31KT 3313 11580

Hernandez