High Wind Warning 11, NWS Portland, OR

131 
WWUS76 KPQR 122229
NPWPQR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
229 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

ORZ001-131245-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T0700Z-171114T0200Z/
North Oregon Coast-
Including the cities of Astoria, Cannon Beach, Tillamook, 
Netarts, and Pacific City
229 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM PST MONDAY...

* WINDS...In the coastal communities, south wind 25 to 35 mph with
  gusts to 50 mph. Near beaches and headlands, south wind 40 to 50
  mph with gusts 65 to 75 mph. Winds turning more southwest Monday
  afternoon.

* TIMING...Late this evening through Monday evening. Strongest and
  most widespread winds are expected to occur Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Travel will 
  become difficult for high profile vehicles along Highway 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ002-131245-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T0700Z-171114T0000Z/
Central Oregon Coast-
Including the cities of Lincoln City, Newport, Cape Foulweather, 
Yachats, and Florence
229 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM PST MONDAY...

* WINDS...In the coastal communities, south wind 25 to 35 mph with
  gusts to 50 mph. Near beaches and headlands, south wind 30 to 40
  mph with gusts 60 mph.

* TIMING...Late Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

WAZ021-131245-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T1600Z-171114T0200Z/
South Washington Coast-
Including the cities of Raymond, Long Beach, Ocean Park, Naselle,
Cathlamet, and Cape Disappointment
229 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM PST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...In the coastal communities, southwest wind 25 to 35 mph
  with gusts to 55 mph. Near beaches and headlands, southwest wind
  35 to 45 mph with gusts 65 to 75 mph.

* TIMING...Monday, with strongest winds during the afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Travel will 
  become difficult for high profile vehicles along Highway 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ003-WAZ020-131245-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T1400Z-171114T0300Z/
Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Willapa Hills-
Including the cities of Vernonia, Jewell, Sunset Summit, 
Lees Camp, Trask, Willapa, Frances, and Ryderwood
229 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM PST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph at higher
  elevations and exposed areas. Winds will be considerably lighter 
  in the valleys.

* TIMING...Monday, with strongest winds likely from midday into 
  the early evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

385 
WWUS76 KPQR 130021
NPWPQR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
421 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

ORZ001-131430-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T0700Z-171114T0200Z/
North Oregon Coast-
Including the cities of Astoria, Cannon Beach, Tillamook, 
Netarts, and Pacific City
421 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM PST MONDAY...

* WINDS...Tonight, in the coastal communities, south wind 20 to 30
  mph with gusts to 50 mph, and near beaches and headlands, south
  wind 35 to 45 mph with gusts 65 mph. On Monday, expect the
  strongest winds, in the coastal communities, south wind 30 to 
  40 mph with gusts to 65 mph, and near beaches and headlands, 
  south wind 40 to 50 mph with gusts to 75 or 80 mph.

* TIMING...The first batch of winds are expected late this evening
  and after midnight tonight. The strongest and most widespread
  winds are expected Monday, especially Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Travel will 
  become difficult for high profile vehicles along Highway 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

WAZ021-131430-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T1600Z-171114T0200Z/
South Washington Coast-
Including the cities of Raymond, Long Beach, Ocean Park, Naselle,
Cathlamet, and Cape Disappointment
421 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM PST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...In the coastal communities, south wind 30 to 40 mph with
  gusts 60 to 70 mph. Near beaches and headlands, south wind 40 to
  50 mph with gusts to 80 mph.

* TIMING...Monday, with strongest and most widespread winds 
  during the afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Travel will 
  become difficult for high profile vehicles along Highway 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ002-131430-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T0700Z-171114T0000Z/
Central Oregon Coast-
Including the cities of Lincoln City, Newport, Cape Foulweather, 
Yachats, and Florence
421 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM PST MONDAY...

* WINDS...Tonight, in the coastal communities, south wind 20 to 30
  mph with gusts to 50 mph, and near beaches and headlands, south
  wind 30 to 40 mph with gusts 60 or 65 mph. On Monday, in the 
  coastal communities, south wind 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 
  mph, and near beaches and headlands, south wind 35 to 45 mph 
  with gusts to 65 mph.

* TIMING...The first batch of winds are expected late this evening
  and after midnight tonight. The strongest winds are expected
  Monday, especially Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ003-WAZ020-131430-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T1400Z-171114T0300Z/
Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Willapa Hills-
Including the cities of Vernonia, Jewell, Sunset Summit, 
Lees Camp, Trask, Willapa, Frances, and Ryderwood
421 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM PST
MONDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts 60 to 70 mph at higher
  elevations and exposed areas. Southwest wind 25 to 35 mph with
  gusts 50 to 60 mph at lower elevations.

* TIMING...Monday, with strongest winds likely from midday into 
  the early evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ005>008-WAZ022-039-131430-
/O.NEW.KPQR.WI.Y.0010.171113T1500Z-171114T0300Z/
Lower Columbia-Greater Portland Metro Area-
Central Willamette Valley-South Willamette Valley-I-
5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro, 
Portland, Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, 
McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, 
Corvallis, Albany, Lebanon, Longview, Kelso, Castle Rock, 
Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, 
and Amboy
421 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued a Wind 
Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Monday.

* WINDS...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph.

* TIMING...Mid morning Monday until early evening, strongest in
  the afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 45 and 57 mph. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

For additional weather information visit our web site at
www.weather.gov/portland

105 
WWUS76 KPQR 131244
NPWPQR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
444 AM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

WAZ021-132300-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T1600Z-171114T0200Z/
South Washington Coast-
Including the cities of Raymond, Long Beach, Ocean Park, Naselle,
Cathlamet, and Cape Disappointment
444 AM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...In the coastal communities, south wind 30 to 40 mph with
  gusts 60 to 70 mph. Near beaches and headlands, south wind 40 to
  50 mph with gusts 70 to 80 mph.

* TIMING...Strongest and most widespread wind during the 
  afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Travel will 
  become difficult for high profile vehicles along Highway 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ001-132300-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171114T0200Z/
North Oregon Coast-
Including the cities of Astoria, Cannon Beach, Tillamook, 
Netarts, and Pacific City
444 AM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...South wind 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 65 mph in the
  coastal communities and 40 to 50 mph with gusts 70 to 80 mph
  near beaches and headlands. 

* TIMING...The strongest and most widespread winds are expected
  late this morning through the afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Travel will 
  become difficult for high profile vehicles along Highway 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ002-132300-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171114T0000Z/
Central Oregon Coast-
Including the cities of Lincoln City, Newport, Cape Foulweather, 
Yachats, and Florence
444 AM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...South wind 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in the
  coastal communities and 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph
  near beaches and headlands. 

* TIMING...The strongest wind is expected late this morning 
  through the afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ003-WAZ020-132300-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.171113T1400Z-171114T0300Z/
Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Willapa Hills-
Including the cities of Vernonia, Jewell, Sunset Summit, 
Lees Camp, Trask, Willapa, Frances, and Ryderwood
444 AM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 45 mph with up to 70 mph at higher 
  elevations and exposed areas. Southwest wind 25 to 35 mph with 
  gusts 50 to 60 mph at lower elevations.

* TIMING...The strongest wind is expected from around noon today
  through early evening. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ005>008-WAZ022-039-132300-
/O.CON.KPQR.WI.Y.0010.171113T1500Z-171114T0300Z/
Lower Columbia-Greater Portland Metro Area-
Central Willamette Valley-South Willamette Valley-I-
5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro, 
Portland, Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, 
McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, 
Corvallis, Albany, Lebanon, Longview, Kelso, Castle Rock, 
Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, 
and Amboy
444 AM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...South to southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 
  mph.

* TIMING...Late Monday morning until early evening, strongest in 
  the afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 45 and 57 mph. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

181 
WWUS76 KPQR 132214
NPWPQR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
214 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

ORZ002-132315-
/O.CAN.KPQR.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171114T0000Z/
Central Oregon Coast-
214 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OREGON CENTRAL COAST HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Portland has cancelled the High
Wind Warning.

South to southwest winds will continue this afternoon into early
this evening. But, damaging winds no longer expected. 

Winds will gust of 45 to 55 mph into early this evening, with 
strongest winds on the exposed headlands and beaches.

$$

ORZ001-140200-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171114T0200Z/
North Oregon Coast-
Including the cities of Astoria, Cannon Beach, Tillamook, 
Netarts, and Pacific City
214 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY...

* WINDS...South wind 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 to 60 mph in
  the coastal communities, with gusts 60 to 70 mph on exposed
  headlands and open beaches.

* TIMING...Winds gradually easing after 5 pm.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult at times for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ003-WAZ020-140300-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171114T0300Z/
Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Willapa Hills-
Including the cities of Vernonia, Jewell, Sunset Summit, 
Lees Camp, Trask, Willapa, Frances, and Ryderwood
214 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TODAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 40 mph with gusts 55 to 70 mph at 
  higher elevations and exposed areas. Southwest wind 20 to 30 mph
  with gusts 45 to 55 mph at lower elevations.

* TIMING...Winds easing after 7 pm. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Travel will be
  difficult at times for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

WAZ021-140200-
/O.CON.KPQR.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171114T0200Z/
South Washington Coast-
Including the cities of Raymond, Long Beach, Ocean Park, Naselle,
Cathlamet, and Cape Disappointment
214 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY...

* WINDS...In the coastal communities, southwest wind 25 to 40 mph
  with gusts 55 to 65 mph. On exposed headlands and open beaches,
  southwest wind 35 to 50 mph with gusts 65 to 75 mph. 

* TIMING...Winds easing after 6 pm. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
  lines. Scattered power outages are possible. Travel may be difficult
  for high profile vehicles along Highway 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

ORZ005>008-WAZ022-039-140300-
/O.CON.KPQR.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-171114T0300Z/
Lower Columbia-Greater Portland Metro Area-
Central Willamette Valley-South Willamette Valley-I-
5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro, 
Portland, Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, 
McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, 
Corvallis, Albany, Lebanon, Longview, Kelso, Castle Rock, 
Vancouver, Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, 
and Amboy
214 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TODAY...

* WINDS...South to southwest 20 to 25 mph, with gusts 35 to 45
  mph. Winds strongest to north of Salem, and over higher terrain.

* TIMING...Winds easing after 7 pm. 

* IMPACTS...Broken limbs and spotty power outages are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 45 and 57 mph. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use
caution until the winds subside.

&&

$$

414 
WWUS76 KPQR 140200
NPWPQR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
600 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

ORZ003-WAZ020-140300-
/O.CAN.KPQR.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171114T0300Z/
Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Willapa Hills-
600 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Wind speeds have decreased and will continue to drop overnight. 

$$

ORZ001-WAZ021-140300-
/O.EXP.KPQR.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-171114T0200Z/
North Oregon Coast-South Washington Coast-
600 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Wind speeds have decreased and will continue to drop overnight. 

$$

ORZ005>008-WAZ022-039-140300-
/O.CAN.KPQR.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-171114T0300Z/
Lower Columbia-Greater Portland Metro Area-
Central Willamette Valley-South Willamette Valley-I-
5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
600 PM PST Mon Nov 13 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind speeds have decreased and will continue to drop overnight. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
328 AM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Wet and occasionally windy November weather will prevail
through at least the middle of the upcoming week, as a series of
strong low pressure systems move across the northeast Pacific. These
systems will push strong frontal systems across the Pac NW; the first
of which will move through the region tonight and Monday. This system
will bring strong winds to the coast and to portions of the Coast
Range, and has some potential to bring strong gusts into the inland
valleys as well. Colder air behind this system will drop the snow
levels to the Cascade passes Monday. This system will be replaced by
another over the NE Pacific for more rain, mountain snow, and breezy
conditions over the forecast area later Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Satellite imagery shows a
dynamic situation developing over the NE Pacific this morning; one
that will begin a prolonged period of wet and occasionally windy
weather for the Pacific Northwest which will last much of the
upcoming week.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad and complex upper level
low over much of the NE Pacific, with several vorticity maxima
rotating around it. Latest analyses indicate a 105-125 kt jet digging
southward from the Gulf of Alaska and beginning to round the base of
the upper trough. The strong meridional jet is elongating the upper
trough, with cyclogenesis appearing to be underway at the base of the
upper trough near 42N/140W. The resulting surface low will be the
impetus for pushing a stalled frontal boundary onshore as a cold
front tonight and E-NE across the Cascades early Monday morning.

Most models are now suggesting the resulting low pressure system will
intensify quickly, developing into a 980-985 mb low as it curls NE
toward Vancouver Island. Models have generally trended stronger with
this system over the past few runs. Knowing this and seeing the first
indicators of rapid cyclogenesis occurring on water vapor imagery,
confidence is fairly high that a strong low will develop and follow a
general track toward Vancouver Island tonight. Models show good
agreement in this until 12z Monday, then major differences begin to
appear. The differences in these details have significant
implications on how strong the winds will be Monday, especially for
the inland valleys.

The past few runs of the GFS and NAM, as well as their higher
resolution nested models, have been fairly consistent in having the
surface low track closer to the Pac NW coast, while the ECMWF, CMC,
and GEFS/EC ensemble means have been further north. The 00z and 06z
runs of the GFS and NAM have only doubled down on their more southern
track; the 06z GFS actually brings the low onshore into the Olympic
Peninsula as a sub-990 mb low Monday, while the 06z NAM is only
slightly further north. The 00z ECMWF trended a bit further south
than its previous runs, but still brings the low onshore well north
into Vancouver Island, which would generally be a weaker wind
solution for our forecast area.

Past experience has shown that models tend to underestimate the
tendency for rapidly developing lows to curl faster northward as they
approach the coast. Therefore we favor a track further north than the
06z NAM/GFS and closer to the 03z SREF mean, into central Vancouver
Island. That said, this system will still be strong enough to produce
plenty of wind for the coast and Coast Range late tonight and Monday.
Pressure gradients will initially be too easterly to bring strong
winds to the coast this evening, but this changes as the front moves
onshore around midnight. Decided to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a
High Wind Warning for the coast and Coast Range zones, except for the
Central Coast Range (less confidence in strong winds there due to the
more northern track of the low). This will be a bit of a one-two
punch for the Oregon Coast, with one surge of south wind with the
incoming cold front and a second surge of southwest wind as a potent
bent-back occlusion and possible sting jet push onshore. This second
surge will have more potential to affect inland areas, due to
improved mixing in the cold sector and a more southerly component to
the pressure gradients. At this point, it appears gusts 65-75 mph
look to be a good bet for the coast and higher elevations of the
Coast Range north of Laurel Mountain. All in all...a fairly typical
strong coastal wind event for November.

A low track more like the 06z GFS would be a much different scenario.
If a sub-990 mb low moves onshore into Washington and tracks across
the Puget Sound, winds will be considerably stronger than our
forecast gusts 35-40 mph in the Willamette Valley Monday. Strong
winds associated with the bent back occlusion would likely impact the
Central Coast Range. The 00z WRF-GFS which has a track similar to
this shows potential gusts of 45-60 mph around the Portland metro
area Monday, so obviously we will need to watch model/satellite
trends closely for any southward drift in the track.

Aside from winds, the forecast is fairly straightforward through
Tuesday. Periods of rain will continue, mostly west of I-5 today as
the frontal zone remains stalled near the coast. As the offshore low
develops and pushes the front onshore, rain will spread across the
forecast area with snow levels falling from around 6000 feet to
around 4000 feet behind the front by Monday evening. Several inches
of snow are likely for the ski resort elevations in showers behind
the front, while the passes will probably see a bit less. If the low
tracks further south than currently expected, accumulations could be
significant enough to warrant an advisory for the Cascades north of
Mount Jefferson. There could also be an increased chance of thunder
Monday afternoon for the lowlands with a more southern low track.

Showers will decrease for most of the forecast area Monday night, and
there may even be a few hours of dry weather for the Willamette
Valley Tuesday as transient high pressure moves across Oregon.
However the next front will not be far behind, as another broad upper
level trough carves into the Northeast Pacific. This front will
spread rain onto the coast and portions of SW Washington as early as
Tuesday, along with another chance of strong coastal winds. The front
slowly moves inland Tuesday night and Wednesday, slowly spreading
rain and mountain snow across the forecast area.  Weagle

.LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...
Tuesday night through Saturday...An active pattern will persist
across the region next week, as an upper level low will linger just
offshore for the start of the week before slowly advancing eastward
across the Pacific Northwest by the end of the week. Valley rain and
mountain snow through much of the week. Snow levels will drop to
around 3,000 feet towards the middle of the week. Models are
inconsistent towards the end of the week. Typical PoPs and seasonal
temperatures for the end of the long term forecast period, because of
this inconsistency. Bishop/DE

&&

.AVIATION...South to southwest flow aloft continues to result in
a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions. The MVFR conditions will be
mainly confined to the coastal areas through about 03Z Mon.
Expect increasing MVFR for the coast after 03Z Mon, with IFR
possible after 06Z Mon. Inland areas to remain primarily VFR
through 08Z Mon. A strong cold front reaches the coast between
06Z and 09Z Mon, and then push into the SW Washington lowlands
and Oregon Coast Range by 12Z. This will bring increasing MVFR to
those areas. There is the potential for LLWS after 06Z Mon near
the Columbia Gorge and in the vicinity of the Columbia River to
KAST.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominant VFR through at least 08Z Mon.
There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR developing in the Tualatin
Valley 12Z to 18Z Sun. A strong cold front is expected to be near
the terminal 12Z Mon. There is also a threat of LLWS after 06Z
Mon at the terminal and near the Columbia River Gorge due to E-SE
surface wind coupled with 40-50 kt S-SW wind at FL020. Weishaar

&&

.MARINE...Active weather pattern over the next few days. Small
craft advisory level wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt will continue
across the waters through Sun morning. A deepening low pressure
area out near 42N 135W at 18Z is expected to strengthen into a
985-990 mb low at 45N 130W by 06Z Mon. Latest guidance in
agreement showing gale force wind gusts developing by midday.
The latest model runs continue to show some variance in the
overall track of the low. The 06Z NAM and 00Z ECMWF swing the low
toward the North Washington coast or Vancouver Island by 18Z Mon.
The NAM is a bit more south than the ECMWF. The 06Z GFS, on the
other hand, is much more south. In any event, confidence is
growing that storm force wind gusts will be realized over the
north zones Mon. The 06Z NAM 975 mb wind forecast indicates a
core of 60-65 kt values generally from Cape Falcon south. This
would mean part of PZZ255 and PZZ275 would have a threat of
storm force gusts, but will confine these to the north waters
with a slightly more north track of the low.

Wind speeds settle down Mon evening, but ramp up again late Mon
night and Tue. Expect another round of gale force wind during
this time. Strongest wind Tue through Tue night will be over PZZ255
and PZZ275, where 45 to 50 kt gusts look to be possible.

Combined seas will be pushing 20 ft late Sun night, with a
significant wind-wave component. This will create steep and
choppy conditions. Spectral guidance for buoy 029 indicates
possible 30 ft wave heights Mon, but this is based on the
stronger GFS wind input. Have gone with near 25 ft seas Mon
afternoon. Seas settle to around 15 ft by 12Z Tue, but get close
to 20 ft again Tue afternoon and Tue night. Weishaar

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM PST Monday for Coast Range
     of Northwest Oregon.

     High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday
     for Central Oregon Coast.

     High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM PST Monday
     for North Oregon Coast.

WA...High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 6 PM PST Monday for South
     Washington Coast.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 7 PM PST Monday for Willapa
     Hills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Coastal
     Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

     Storm Warning from 6 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
     from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM PST Monday for
     Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR
     out 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Monday for
     Coastal Waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60
     NM.

     Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 10 PM
     this evening to 4 AM PST Monday.

&&

Interact with us via social media:
www.facebook.com/NWSPortland
www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington
from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is
commonly referred to as the forecast area.