Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
218 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. We've seen scattered
coverage develop across the central mountains and getting close to
that threshold across the southern highlands this afternoon.
Isolated storms continue across the Upper Snake Highlands for now
as they are in the wake of this morning's round of storms. They
could see increasing coverage, depending on what happens with
storms and possible outflow boundaries. For the Snake Plain, it
appears storms COULD develop, but mostly likely along outflow
boundaries. Any storm has the potential for locally heavy rain,
gusty winds over 30 mph and perhaps some small hail. Widespread
heavy rain is NOT expected at this time, but storms aren't moving
too fast so we could see localized flooding especially if multiple
storms "train" over a given area. The models are trending drier
overnight but given this is a monsoon pattern, any little trigger
can kick off overnight showers and even thunderstorms. We did keep
through tomorrow morning isolated coverage over portions of the
central mountains and southern highlands. Despite the low along
the California coast staying to our west now, monsoon moisture
will interact with weak "waves" moving in from the west and/or
north. This along with the lift from the mountains, this will keep
showers and thunderstorms going through Thursday. The main risks
remain heavy rainfall, gusty winds and a few storms with small
hail. Temperatures will remain a little bit below normal, but
could easily vary due to smoke, clouds and/or storms. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday. As high pressure builds
through the weekend, the chance of showers and storms slowly
decreases and temperatures climb a few degrees. Right now, it
doesn't look like we will be completely storm-free but looking at
more isolated coverage coming our way. The models are struggling
with the next storm system coming into the West. The GFS is slow
but more progressive vs the ECMWF and its pretty big closed low.
The models have been NOT been consistent at this range on what may
happen. We did being to slowly increase the chance of showers and
storms during this period for now.  Keyes

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions with thunderstorms possible at any
site and have vicinity this evening.  Best chance may come at SUN to
see on station this afternoon and evening.  May also see minimal
visibility restrictions due to smoke but generally not less than 6
miles.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Active weather pattern will continue through the
week with thunderstorms expected daily through Friday.   A red flag
warning is in effect for scattered thunderstorms until 9 pm today
for zones 422 and 476.   Will also watch zones 427 and 413 closely
for continued development as thunderstorms will be most widespread
in those 4 zones this evening.   Monsoonal moisture remains in place
and expect no changes through Thursday with continued thunderstorms
and more warnings may be needed to be issued Wednesday as well.  Do
not expect strong winds other than thunderstorm outflows.
GK

&&

.AIR STAGNATION....Poor air quality from wildfire smoke continues
across eastern Idaho. Officials felt that it had improved enough
to lift the alerts for BANNOCK AND FRANKLIN counties. They do
continue for BLAINE, LINCOLN, MINIDOKA and CASSIA counties. The
overall picture is that if you are or feel you could have issues
in these conditions, it's probably good to be cautious. Conditions
will worsen due to inversions at night, or if a fire decides to
flare up. Showers and storms are in the forecast, but right now we
AREN'T expecting that really alleviate the problems on a
widespread basis. We could see a change though by early next week.
The models are trying to bring southwest flow across our area,
which would help push smoke to the northeast instead from the
west and north. The caveat is that if we get flare ups or new
fires, that may not be of any help at all.  Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ422-476.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
314 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

IDZ022-023-082200-
Caribou Highlands ID-South Central Highlands ID-
314 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 314 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Holbrook Summit or 22 miles north of Snowville, moving
east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pleasantview, Holbrook Summit, Daniels Reservoir and Samaria.

LAT...LON 4222 11280 4240 11274 4234 11225 4208 11235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 285DEG 15KT 4230 11268

DMH