Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
130 PM MDT Sun Jul 9 2017

.DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure positioned over the Great
Basin will begin to give way to a passing trough migrating through
WRN Canada over the next couple of days. Satellite and radar imagery
was showing an area of enhanced convection shifting ENE through the
CNTRL mountains toward SW Montana coincident with a sub-tropical
disturbance which was rotating over the top of the aforementioned
ridge. A second such disturbance was noted lifting north through SRN
Nevada which the models rotate into SE Idaho by early evening with
attending thunderstorm activity. Do not believe we are going to get
to crazy with the convection in the CNTRL mountains in the wake of
the exiting system and under some subsidence even though the
atmosphere does appear to be destabilizing per satellite LI's. I am
a bit more concerned about the SRN mountains where they fall under
the leading edge of the incoming disturbance later this evening.
Thus higher chances of thunderstorms in that region this evening.
With dry lower levels all areas we have the potential to produce
strong gusty outflow winds with the thunderstorms. As for Monday,
the Canadian trough begins migrating east through BC while an
accompanying surface front shifts east through the area between noon
and 3pm. Believe the front will be the focus for some decent
thunderstorm development primarily over the SE highlands and to a
lesser extent within the Snake River Plain and CNTRL mountains.
Strong gusty winds will accompany the front through the region
Monday and thus a Red Flag warning has been issued (more on that
below). A fairly flat, dry and stable west flow is anticipated
across the region Tuesday as that Canadian trough works further
east. Starting Wednesday and continuing into next weekend, the
monsoon ridge rebounds across the region bringing a return to
unseasonably warm temperatures and occasional afternoon
thunderstorms favoring the mountains. Huston
&&

.AVIATION...Fetch of monsoon moisture will come to an end this
evening as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening once again,
similar to the past few days. Models are about 1 to 2 hours later in
developing convection compared to yesterday, so I did back off on
the timing. Still not enough confidence on where convection will
initiate, so keeping with VCTS for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions
should persist. Hinsberger
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Focus will be on potential for critical fire
conditions for zones 410 and 425, where fuels are ready. With the
flow of monsoon moisture coming to an end for now, the approach of a
dry cold front from the west will bring concerns for strong wind
gusts and low humidity. Model trends are towards lower RH and higher
wind gusts, and lower min RH tomorrow afternoon. Today's concern
will be the potential for thunderstorms developing over fire zone
427. Coverage of these storms may become widely scattered this
evening. These storms may produce strong outflows and may develop
near the Trapper Creek wildfire. Hinsberger
&&

.HYDROLOGY...Warm temperatures will continue across the region
today before cooling some early in the week behind a passing cold
front. As a result, many of the river levels are expected remain
steady or fall during the period. Significant backcountry flood
issues continue to impact roads, bridges, and trails in the Sawtooth
National Forest above 7500 feet MSL where district rangers have
requested that the Small Stream Areal Flood Warning continue.
Further south, along the Big Wood River, levels remain well below
the established flood stage, however significant changes in the
river channel have left several homes along War Eagle Drive west of
Hailey and along Gimlet Road 4 miles south of Ketchum experiencing
ongoing flood issues. Emergency management officials were in
agreement with expiring the flood advisory. Huston/Wyatt
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning for gusty winds and low humidity for IDZ410 and 425
Monday afternoon and evening.
&&

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