Lake Wind Advisory 3, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
217 AM MDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...A pair of upper level disturbances will move
through the region Today and Friday. Both systems are a little
stronger than previously forecast. Therefore rain chances are a
little higher in the forecast. Today's system will bring a few
showers to the central Idaho mountains through the upper Snake
highlands. Friday's system will extend further south, possibly
developing a few showers or thunderstorms across the southern
highlands as well. Instability seems best across the eastern
highlands into the southern highlands. Instability is much weaker
across the central mountains, so only have thunder in the east and
south for Friday afternoon and evening. Today's system will not
produce much rainfall, few hundredths. However, up to a quarter of
an inch is possible in the central Idaho mountains and eastern
highlands Friday and Friday night. Expect breezy conditions today
and somewhat stronger Friday. Will probably be below lake wind
advisory for the American Falls Reservoir today, but will likely
need one for Friday. High pressure develops over the region on
Saturday and persists through much of next week. Expect warm,
summerlike temperatures to return to the region next week. May see
enough moisture for isolated thunderstorms, but models are still
not in agreement so will not include them in the forecast at this
time.

Valle

&&

.AVIATION...Similar winds and skies are forecast today as were
observed yesterday. Mid to upper layer clouds are forecast today
with a lowering overcast cloud deck moving in during the overnight
hours. Breezy afternoon winds are forecast once more this afternoon
with gusts near 25 mph. Tomorrow morning, winds will gust stronger
behind a passing disturbance. This is not expected until after 12z.
NP/DV

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy conditions will be the primary fire weather
concern today and especially tomorrow. Sustained wind speeds will
increase to 28 mph across the Arco Desert and portions of South-
Central Idaho this afternoon with 15 to 20 mph winds through Central
and Eastern Idaho. An incoming disturbance tomorrow will increase
wind speeds further, peaking during the morning hours with winds to
30 mph throughout the Snake Plain and gusts to 45 mph. Ahead of
these winds, precip is expected in the overnight hours in the
Central Mountains, which will continue throughout the day Friday.
Isolated showers are forecast for Eastern Idaho with a slight chance
for showers in South-Central Idaho later in the evening. Isolated
thunderstorms are forecast in Eastern and South-Central Idaho during
the afternoon and evening as well. Humidities today will be similar
to yesterday with areas of minimum 20 to 30 percents this afternoon.
Low RH values will become elevated tomorrow across the board. A high
pressure ridge will build over the region over the weekend and allow
for drier conditions and decreasing chances for rain showers.
NP/DV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flooding continues along many area streams and rivers.
Releases out of Palisades is the primary reason for flooding along
the Snake. Minor flooding is occurring along the Teton and where it
flows into the Henry's fork near Rexburg. High flows continue across
the central Idaho mountains as well as snowmelt continues to make
its way down.

Valle

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&